As fans of “The White Lotus” can attest, straying from a predictable plot can be surprisingly rewarding. (Though it’s not going well for a certain Duke fan or his salacious sons.)
Betting markets also occasionally travel off the beaten path, with variously entertaining results. Those who wish to unearth unconventional opportunities and invest in them are sometimes rewarded with windfalls.
With the stage set in San Antonio, let’s get weird, BetMGM.
Here are four uncommon props tied to this year’s Final Four.
Alex Condon over 7.5 rebounds (+110)
Oy! Oy! Oy! The Australian import is sure to post numbers tastier than a bloomin’ onion at the local Outback Steakhouse. The last time he faced Auburn — a game in which Florida waltzed into Neville Arena and won 90-81 on Feb. 8 — the bruising big waxed the glass, hauling in 10 boards.
Sure, no two games are ever the same, but in the higher-stakes rematch, Condon should once again assert himself down low. Over its last 10 games, Auburn is a painfully mediocre No. 203 in defensive rebounding percentage. That’s right, even with arguably the best paint presence in the game, Johni Broome, on the roster.
In what will likely be another 70-75 possession game, Condon wrangles enough caroms to cash. At plus odds, it’s an attractive wager, especially with Broome (elbow) possibly less than 100 percent.
Three or more 3-point field goals made in first three minutes of Florida-Auburn (+475)
Come out of the gates firing. An aggressive shooting start is an assumption worth betting on in a game with an implied 160.5 total.
Both teams relish a brisk pace. Both possess accurate and quick triggers. And, most importantly, both exude Steph Curry-like on-court personalities.
Over their last 10 games, the Gators and Tigers have chucked a 3 on over 40 percent of team possessions, drilling a laudable 37.6 percent and 35.7 percent of those attempts, respectively.
In the NCAA Tournament, Auburn and Florida have each splashed at least one triple in three of four games, averaging a combined 5.5 attempts per contest. The hit rates on those early perimeter jacks aren’t encouraging, but in a likely high-possession affair, all that’s needed for this bet to hit is one team to sizzle from the jump.
In their regular-season matchup, both schools went a combined 1-for-3 from distance over the first three minutes. That one-game sample and previous off-the-block performances in this year’s dance suggest a fruitless chase. However, the familiar SEC foes trot out eight total players who net at least 35 percent on 3-pointers.
Given the sizable juice, it’s a roulette wheel worth spinning.
Houston under 1.5 team dunks (-165)
Houston may boast an athletic profile but only occasionally rocks the rim. Only one time in March’s main event did the Cougars slam home a winner on the proposed over. That rare occurrence happened in the Sweet 16 against a highly suspect Purdue defensive front where Houston logged three jams.
Due to the presence of supreme rim protector Khaman Maluach, flushes are infrequent against Duke. On the season, Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils are No. 6 in near-proximity percentage defense according to Haslametrics. Since late February, they’ve conceded only 43.2 percent on 2-point attempts.
Maluach’s lengthy 7-foot-2 frame and condor-like wingspan combined with Cooper Flagg’s competitive tenacity are major reasons why Duke is one of the premier interior defenses in the country. In this year’s tournament alone, Maluach and Flagg have combined for 15 blocks.
Tally it up, and multiple liftoffs seem unlikely for Houston.
Houston race to 15 points (+115)
Folks who make the annual pilgrimage to Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament know this wager well. The popular offering is steeped in fantastically craptastic “luck.”
There are few data points available that define whether Team X or Team Y is a good or bad investment. One unfortunate 50-50 ball. One missed free throw. One unexpected 3-point chuck. The usually quick outcome is completely unpredictable. But those are the same reasons that make this one of the most fun prop bets out there.
What’s known is that both Houston and Duke are terrific first-half teams. The Blue Devils (+10.9) and Cougars (+10.7) rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in average first-half margin on the season. In what will likely be a grind, what team sprints out to the 15-point mark first is the definition of “coin toss.”
If Kelvin Sampson’s crew can immediately assert itself on the glass and take advantage of a Duke defense No. 118 in opponent 3-point percentage over the last month, the handsome plus money will cash.
When the green light illuminates, peel out LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp.
(Photo of Emanuel Sharp: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)