NFL Week 13 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Drew Lock to start Giants' Thanksgiving game

Welcome to the Week 13 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings referenced in this article are current as of Nov. 27 at 1 p.m. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section. Happy Thanksgiving!

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Last updated: 3:08 p.m., Nov. 28

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Injury news

Updated through 3:08 p.m. ET, Nov. 28

Thanksgiving Day

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (concussion) — Out
Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys (knee) — Active
Ferguson has been ruled out, while Cooks is now active for Week 13. With Ferguson out, Luke Schoonmaker has averaged 55.5 yards receiving in Weeks 11 and 12 and had 11.6 and 14.5 PPR points, respectively. With Cooks’ return, Cooper Rush has one more veteran target to help him out. We also haven’t seen much of recently acquired WR Jonathan Mingo yet. Maybe we will in Week 13.

Tommy DeVito, QB, Giants (arm) — Out
DeVito was limited in practice because of a sore right forearm, according to our Charlotte Caroll of The Athletic, and Thursday the Giants made the decision to start Drew Lock in place of Tommy Cutlets. DeVito will be the third emergency quarterback. In three appearances this season, Lock completed 4 of 9 pass attempts for nine yards. Your fantasy team would have to be in a very sorry state to entertain starting Lock, but perhaps a healthy QB has a better chance to push WR Malik Nabers up the fantasy production ladder.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers (concussion) — Out
Doubs has been ruled out for Week 13. With or without Doubs, receiver production on the Packers is hard to predict with Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed in the group. Reed looked like an every-week starter early in the season, but he’s scored only 5.6 in Week 12, 7.5 in Week 8, and 3.0 in Week 7. He’s also only been targeted five times in the past two weeks. With this group, any one of them could have a good week, but all of them never do.

Friday

Zamir White, RB, Raiders (Quadriceps) — Out
Alexander Mattison, RB, Raiders (ankle) — Questionable
White and Mattison both missed Week 12, and White is already ruled out for Week 13 while Mattison is questionable. In Week 11, each of them had five carries, and while Mattison had more yards (19) than White (nine), the numbers don’t bode well for future fantasy production. Next up on the depth chart are Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick. Abdullah had eight carries to McCormick’s five, but McCormick had 6.6 yards per carry to Abdullah’s 2.5. However, Abdullah was more involved in the passing game and ended up with 65 net yards and a receiving touchdown.

Aidan O’Connell, QB, Raiders (thumb) — Expected to play
Head coach Antonio Pierce said O’Connell will start in Week 13, according to Levi Edwards of the Raiders’ official site. After Gardner Minshew’s season-ending injury, Desmond Ridder is O’Connell’s backup. I’d love to see Ridder on the field Friday. But my dad is a Purdue alum, so I’m partial to O’Connell (though it’s difficult, given his 5.5 PPR point per game average), and I hope he can at least attempt to give the Chiefs some trouble and make this a game worth watching.

Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders (hip) — Questionable
Tucker was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a hip injury. Week 12 was one of Tucker’s better performances, as he finished with 82 yards receiving and 15.2 PPR points. But Jakobi Meyers is the more reliable Raiders receiver, and if Tucker misses time, Meyers will have more opportunities. Meyers has only scored fewer than 10 PPR points on four occasions this year. Last week, he was targeted 15 times and ended with 121 yards and 22.1 PPR points.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (ankle) — Expected to play
Pacheco was close to playing in Week 12 but has a better chance to play in Week 13. If he doesn’t, Kareem Hunt will again lead the backfield with a season average of 3.7 yards per rush.

Spencer Shrader, K, Chiefs (hamstring) — Out
Shrader is out in Week 13 with a hamstring injury. Harrison Butker is on IR, so the Chiefs signed Matthew Wright to start in Week 13.

Sunday 1 p.m.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (shoulder) — Questionable
Lawrence was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Fantasy managers with any stake in the Jags are desperate for Lawrence’s return. With him in, TE Evan Engram and WR Brian Thomas Jr. become fantasy-relevant again.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders (ankle) — Questionable
Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders (concussion) — Questionable
If Washington is without Robinson Jr. and Ekeler in Week 13, the offense could be in some trouble. Jeremy McNichols has been plucked off waiver wires all week in case Robinson and Ekeler are ruled out. Lesser known Chris Rodriguez would also factor into the running game if the Commanders’ starting tandem can’t play.

Breece Hall, RB, Jets (knee) — Questionable
Breece Hall did not practice on Wednesday due to knee soreness. Braelon Allen becomes an immediate add-and-play if Hall sits. Allen had a great Week 2 with 4.7 yards per carry and 19.6 PPR points. But he is averaging 3.7 yards per rush on the year and 5.36 PPR points.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Falcons (hamstring) — Questionable
Mooney, who is questionable for Week 13, has averaged 13.55 PPR points this season, and his ceiling is right at the 31.5 points he scored in Week 5. Without Mooney, Drake London and Ray-Ray McCloud III may see more targets. McCloud had six receptions on six targets and 46 yards receiving in Week 11.

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts (foot) — Questionable
Josh Downs, WR, Colts (shoulder) — Questionable
Neither Downs nor Pierce practiced on Wednesday. If they cannot play, Adonai Mitchell becomes fantasy-relevant again as a down-the-field threat, and Michael Pittman Jr. is sure to get the most wide receiver looks for the Colts.

DeMario Douglas, WR, Patriots (ankle) — Questionable
Douglas was limited at practice on Wednesday. Averaging 8.56 PPR points per game, Douglas is a flex option in deeper leagues at best. Keyshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne could see more work with Douglas out.

Austin Seibert, K, Commanders (hip) — Injured reserve
Seibert has been placed on IR after missing kicks following his return from injury. When Seibert was out, Zane Gonzalez kicked for the Commanders, going 3-for-3 on field goals and 4-for-4 on extra points. He is still on the practice squad and available for elevation.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers (knee) — Questionable
Dobbins sprained his MCL and is expected to miss the Chargers’ matchup against the Falcons. With him out, grab Gus Edwards and think about flexing him. He didn’t do too well after Dobbins left the game in Week 12, but he will surely lead LA’s backfield in Dobbins’ absence.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans (concussion) — Questionable
Spears is again questionable heading into the week, but Tony Pollard is the RB1 in Tennessee. In Spears’ Week 12 absence, Pollard had 119 yards on 24 carries, a touchdown and finished with 21.9 PPR points.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans (ankle) — Questionable
Ridley didn’t practice on Wednesday but had a solid Week 12 with 93 yards receiving. If Ridley sits, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine becomes an intriguing flex play. NWI has scored over 10 PPR points in four of his last five games and had 117 yards receiving in Week 11. Often his production comes from limited targets and receptions, but if Ridley isn’t on the field, Westbrook-Ikhine could see more usage.

Noah Fant, TE, Seahawks (groin) — Questionable
Fant hasn’t played since Week 8 and is questionable again. His backup is rookie AJ Barner. In his past three games, Barner is averaging 20.33 receiving yards and three targets per game.

Will Dissly, TE, Chargers (knee) — Questionable
Dissly is questionable heading into Week 13. If he sits, Tucker Fisk is next up on the depth chart. Dissly is averaging 7.9 PPR points on the season and had 18 in Week 11. In Weeks 11 and 12, he had 80 yards and 47 yards receiving, respectively.

Sunday 4 p.m.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (hamstring) — Questionable
Smith missed Week 12 with a hamstring injury and remains questionable for Week 13. Without Smith on the field, A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert were the only pass catchers with more than one target. Saquon Barkley also caught four passes for 47 receiving yards.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Panthers (neck) — Questionable
Head coach Dave Canales told reporters that Sanders is not expected to play on Sunday, meaning Tommy Tremble will likely get the start. Tremble has not exceeded 5.9 PPR points in any game this season.

Sunday Night Football

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers (shoulder) — Questionable
Purdy was limited in practice on Wednesday, and if he can’t play, Brandon Allen will likely get another start. Managers of Niners receivers would be so incredibly thankful if Purdy returns for Week 13.

Keon Coleman, WR, Bills (wrist) — Questionable
Dalton Kincaid, WR, Bills (knee) — Questionable
Coleman was limited at practice with a wrist injury, while Kincaid did not practice on Wednesday. Coleman hasn’t played since Week 9. Now, Coleman will share targets with Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir. If Kincaid can’t play, Dawson Knox is a quality backup who should demand streaming consideration for this week.

Monday Night Football

Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns (concussion) — Questionable
Tillman was diagnosed with a concussion during Thursday Night Football, but Jerry Jeudy has been the surging Browns receiver lately. If Tillman sits, Jeudy is an even better flex option.

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos (back) — Questionable
Nix was limited in practice due to a back injury. Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson are the backups in Denver. If Nix sits, WRs Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele are less attractive fantasy plays in Week 13.

Weather report

Outdoor games only

As the weather grows colder, four matchups, including 49ers-Bills, Dolphins-Packers, Raiders-Chiefs and Steelers–Bengals, will be played in temperatures below 35 degrees. In Jake Ciely’s fantasy football strategy guide to weather, he notes that the passing game is impacted when temperatures drop below 35 degrees, which is illustrated in the table below.

According to Rotowire’s aggregated NFL-related forecasts, there is a 75 percent chance of snow with an expected temperature of 29 degrees when the Bills welcome the 49ers to Buffalo.

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

Snow and precipitation primarily affect the passing game. Typically, running backs are used more in difficult weather conditions, so their value is less impacted. Christian McCaffrey and James Cook should typically produce, and maybe Ray Davis even gets some carries if the game scripts lean run.

Josh Allen has played in three games in the snow, in 2020 and 2021. In those games, he averaged a completion percentage of 51.8 percent, compared to a career 63.7 percent. While that’s dismal, he also still threw for an average of 256.33 yards per game. If Dalton Kincaid is healthy, he and Cook out of the backfield could see a lot of short-yardage work. I may trust Khalil Shakir more than Amari Cooper this week because of Shakir’s rapport with Allen and consistent fantasy production.

Brock Purdy hasn’t played in the snow in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers last snowy game was in Jan. 2022, in a divisional game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. They won 13-10, and seven of their points came off a blocked punt that went for a touchdown. Former 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo was 11-for-19 and threw for 131 yards and an interception. The team rushed for 106 total yards, and Kittle led the Niners in receiving with four receptions and 63 yards. A typical snow game.

Featured games

Game-specific previews and live updates are available on the day of the game.

Thanksgiving Day

Chicago Bears (4-7) vs. Detroit Lions (10-1)

• Venue: Ford Field — Detroit
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Detroit Lions are favored by more than a touchdown over the Chicago Bears in this Thanksgiving Day NFC North matchup. Detroit comes into Week 13 atop the competitive division, while the Bears are in last place, losing their previous two games by one score. Under Chicago’s new offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, Caleb Williams looks much improved. In Weeks 11 and 12, Williams had passer ratings of 95 and 103, with completion percentages of 74.2 percent and 68.1 percent, respectively. And Bears receivers are finally putting up fantasy points — Keenan Allen and DJ Moore each surpassed 20 PPR points in Week 12.

The Lions have looked like the best team in the NFL lately and cruised past the Colts in Week 12 (24-6). The backfield tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery gives the Lions a balanced attack and allows them to control the clock. Jameson Williams is shaping into a true WR2 for Detroit and gives Jared Goff an option outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is averaging 18.51 PPR points on the season and 67.91 receiving yards per game. For its part, Detroit’s defense is ranked fifth in rushing yards allowed per game and third in interceptions per pass attempt. Like Jonathan Taylor in Week 12, Chicago’s D’Andre Swift (-28.86 in total rush EPA) may find it difficult to run against Detroit’s D.

Read the full preview.

New York Giants (2-9) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-7)

• Venue: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

No one expected a Drew Lock vs. Cooper Rush game on Thanksgiving Day, but that’s what we got. Neither the Giants nor the Cowboys are even close to playoff contention, and this game will likely disappoint, but here we go.

While the Giants have failed on nearly every level this season, they do have the No. 1 WR of their future in rookie Malik Nabers and a solid running back in rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr., who is averaging 5.1 yards per rush (sixth overall for RBs with over 100 carries). Now, get a quarterback next year. Please. Don’t waste Nabers.

Rush and Dallas surprised the Houston Texans in Week 12 with a 32-27 victory and could have another solid game against New York. Rush was 24-for-32 with 247 yards passing, two touchdown passes, no interceptions and a passer rating of 117.6 last week. CeeDee Lamb had 10 receptions for 67 yards and was targeted 12 times for the second week in a row. In Weeks 10-12, Rico Dowdle has averaged only 8.3 PPR points and 55.67 rushing yards per game, but the Giants defense is ranked 30th in rush yards allowed per game and are dead last in yards per carry allowed. Dowdle, ranked 31st among running backs with 11.2 PPR points per game on the year, may be a sneaky RB2/flex start in Week 12.

Read the full preview.

Miami Dolphins (5-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)

• Venue: Lambeau Field — Green Bay, Wis.
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Green Bay Packers are favorites over the Miami Dolphins in Week 13, as the Thanksgiving Day slate finishes strong. Miami has won its last three games, largely due to Tua Tagovailoa’s return, and while the wins have come against the Rams, Raiders, and Patriots, Miami nearly beat the Bills in Week 9. Jaylen Waddle finally looked like … Jaylen Waddle in Week 12, finishing with 144 yards receiving and 28.4 PPR points. Tyreek Hill is not producing up to his preseason ADP, averaging 11.71 PPR points per game.

The Packers are winning, but Jordan Love hasn’t played particularly well. His completion percentage of 61.8 percent ranks 33rd among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts — just above Trevor Lawrence, Cooper Rush, and Bryce Young; Love’s pass/interception rate is only better than Will Levis’. In Week 12, Romeo Doubs was the only receiver to eclipse 50 yards, and Love’s two touchdown passes went to TE Tucker Kraft and WR Malik Heath. With Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson (who had no receptions in Week 12) in the receiving corps., predicting who will produce week-to-week is impossible. Now, Josh Jacobs, who averages 16.5 PPR points per game and ran for 106 yards and three touchdowns in Week 12, is an easy weekly start.

Read the full preview.

Friday afternoon

Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, Mo.
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• TV: Prime Video
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by two scores over the Las Vegas Raiders — what a surprise. After Gardner Minshew II broke his collarbone in Week 12, the Raiders are praying that Aidan O’Connell is healthy enough to return. Or maybe we’ll see Desmond Ridder. Regardless, Las Vegas will find it hard to beat the Chiefs, who may get Isiah Pacheco back this week. Alexander Mattison and Zamir White did not play in Week 12, and the Raiders leaned on Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick in their absence, leading to 69 total yards on the ground. Underrated WR Jacobi Meyers finished with 121 yards. Brock Bowers had a down week but is a bright spot on this team and will “get his” in most games.

Pacheco’s return could help a Chiefs offense that hasn’t looked as dynamic this year despite securing 10 wins. Mahomes is coming off a one-score win against the lowly Carolina Panthers and his best fantasy game of the season, finishing with 28.8 fantasy points and a passer rating of 120.2. TE Travis Kelce led receivers with eight targets; DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy each had six. Kansas City’s defense is the difference maker, ranking fourth in yards per game allowed and third in yards per rush allowed.

Read the full preview (coming Friday).

Sunday afternoon

Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium — Baltimore, Md.
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

After Saquon Barkley’s 302 net yards and Hurts’ efficient performance against the Rams in Week 12, Philly still doesn’t get the odds against the Ravens in Baltimore. Led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, the Ravens can beat anyone, even the soaring Eagles. Derrick Henry’s impact on Baltimore’s dominant season cannot be overstated. He’s averaging 20 PPR points per game and just had a 140-yard rushing performance on Monday Night Football, breaking one tackle after another. He faces eight men in the box at the second-highest rate in the NFL (33.9 percent) and still averages 3.55 yards after contact (sixth in the league). Zay Flowers (Ciely’s WR22), Mark Andrews (TE20) and Rashod Bateman (WR56) round out the Ravens offense and give Jackson capable targets.

The Ravens allow the fewest yards per rush (3.5), and even Barkley may find less room to run in this game. The Eagles have a great one-two punch with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (who was inactive in Week 12), and TE Dallas Goedert is great for the short game. With much focus on Barkley this season, Hurts’ seventh-ranked passer rating (102.3) and sixth-ranked completion percentage (69.1 percent) have gone under the radar. Brown has 727 receiving yards on the season and averages 16.96 PPR points per game.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

• Venue: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, N.Y.
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Niners have been disappointing this year and sit at the bottom of the NFC West. Still in playoff contention, they hope to have Brock Purdy back in Week 13. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t looked the same since his return from injury, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and under 50 rushing yards per game. However, the Bills D gives up 4.9 yards per carry (30th in the NFL), giving fantasy managers who have McCaffrey something to be thankful for this week. Interestingly in the receiving corps, Deebo Samuel is averaging only 10.5 PPR points per game, while breakout wideout Jauan Jennings is averaging 14.9.

Josh Allen is on a tear this season, averaging 231.18 passing yards and 28.7 rushing yards per game and throwing for 18 TDs while rushing for five. He has only five interceptions with a passer rating of 98.2 and is fantasy’s QB5 with 20.3 PPR points per game. Now Allen has Amari Cooper alongside Khalil Shakir as his top two receivers. Shakir has only scored less than 10 PPR points once in Week 6; he offers a great floor and a ceiling of about 20 points.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Monday night

Cleveland Browns (3-8) vs. Denver Broncos (7-5)

• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High — Denver, Colo.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

On the shoulders of Bo Nix’s improved play and a tough defense, the Broncos are favored over the Cleveland Browns. I was big on Nix entering the season. His college career contained few errors, and I thought he’d fit into Sean Payton’s system well. But the first few weeks of his play had me cowering in a corner. But persistence has brought vengeance! Nix has thrown zero interceptions in the past three weeks while scoring eight touchdowns. From Weeks 10-12, his passer rating is 118.6, and he has a 71.4 percent completion rate. Courtland Sutton has been buoyed because of it. During that span, he averaged 81.67 receiving yards per game on nine targets. The Broncos running game is an entirely different story. Payton seems to be using the hot-hand approach to Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime, making none of them viable fantasy plays.

The Browns have some fight in them with Jameis Winston under center. They aren’t winning games, but they’ve become more fun to watch, and Jerry Jeudy has become flex-relevant in deep leagues. Jeudy has scored 12 or more PPR points since Week 8, and in Week 11, he had 26.2. Denver has a stout pass defense, allowing only 199.8 passing yards per game (ninth in the NFL), so while I think Jeudy deserves flex consideration, temper expectations.

Read the full preview (coming Monday).

Week 13 best bets

Austin Mock scours his weekly projections to spot the top values on the board.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions over 48.5 (-110)

Caleb Williams and this Bears offense have looked much better since they made a change at offensive coordinator. Pair that with the Lions defense being a little banged up on a short week, and I think Chicago can hold its own in this game. That is, on offense. Nobody has been able to contain the Lions offense since their bye week, and I don’t expect that to happen on Thanksgiving. Give me all the food, and give me all the points.

• Worst price to bet: Over 48.5 (-110)

— Mock

See all of Mock’s best bets for Week 13.

Survivor pool picks and mailbag

A weekly guide to staying alive from Renee Miller and Adam Gretz. Odds from BetMGM as of Thursday.

Question from Sammu D.: “Initially planning on taking Broncos Week 13. Now questioning if I should consider Packers or even Cowboys as options. Saving Bills for Week 16 or 17.”

While I do really like the Broncos, Cleveland can be a little frisky here, and I am not sure Denver is so good at this point that anybody is an easy win for them. Myles Garrett can ruin a game. Jameis Winston is just out there playing on vibes. It could be a dangerous team. I do like the Packers because until Miami and Mike McDaniel actually beat a good team, I am going to be skeptical of that whole operation. And even without that, I’m never really comfortable picking the road team on a short week. I know it’s wild, but I do not hate the Cowboys this week. Not only is that Giants team awful, but I would imagine Dallas wants to at least have some energy for the Thanksgiving game, and the Giants have that short-week road trip. Do you think a 2-9 team wants to spend its Thanksgiving playing on the road? I don’t.

—Gretz

Get this week’s top survivor pool tips.

Jake Ciely’s Week 13 fantasy football player rankings

Find out Jake’s top QB, RB, WR and TE for the week!

• There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to work (or Android people can try a two-finger scroll).
• ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
• Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

Get Ciely’s full Week 13 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.

(Photo of Drew Lock: Luke Hales/Getty Images)