There’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the New York Giants as they enter a pivotal offseason on the heels of a dreadful 3-14 campaign. On Wednesday, I tackled mailbag questions on ownership, the general manager and the head coach. The focus shifts to the roster today.
(Editor’s note: Questions have been edited for clarity.)
Is there a world in which the Giants don’t draft a QB? Too many exceptional non-QB players will be available at No. 3 overall to waste the pick on a QB who would have been the seventh or eighth QB drafted last year. — Garrett D.
It’s a near-lock that the Giants will draft a quarterback this year. They haven’t drafted one since Daniel Jones in 2019, so they’re overdue to take the bat off their shoulder. But it’s possible they don’t take a quarterback with the No. 3 pick, which I believe is the premise of your question.
The decision could be taken out of their hands if Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders are the first two picks. In that case, it would be surprising if the Giants don’t take a quarterback on Day 2 of the draft (or even with a trade back into the first round like the Ravens did for Lamar Jackson in 2018). But if Ward or Sanders is available at No. 3, it’s hard to imagine the Giants passing despite the reservations you expressed.
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Who do you think is the best available bridge QB they will sign? — Gary W.
It’s hard to handicap this now because the field is so unsettled. There could be additions to the market via cap casualties (Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Geno Smith) and subtractions via the franchise tag or extensions (Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson).
In terms of impending free agents, Darnold is the best option despite his rough finish to the season. At 27, he’s by far the youngest of the options listed above, so there’s at least the prospect of continued growth after his stunning breakout in Year 7.
As far as the best one they’ll sign, that’s nearly impossible to project at this point based on all of the uncertainty I outlined. But the next question will lead me closer to an answer.
The resurgence of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc., shows that the new system of starting a quarterback in his rookie year is flawed and causes these resurgences. Who is the best resurgence candidate? — Robert M.
I’m not sure those resurgences show the flaws in starting rookie quarterbacks immediately. Some quarterbacks, like Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud, have been immediate game-changers as rookies. The real takeaway should be that a quarterback isn’t necessarily a lost cause just because he doesn’t meet expectations early in his career.
You mentioned some reclamation projects that worked out for their teams on cheap contracts. The goal for the Giants should be to find this year’s version of Mayfield and Darnold rather than paying market price for Darnold off a season that may not be replicable if he returns to New York.
Justin Fields has the most similarities to Mayfield and Darnold as a talented prospect who didn’t thrive at his first stop. It’s easy to pick apart the flaws in Fields’ game, just as one could have done with Mayfield and Darnold before their breakthroughs. But Fields is a former top pick with physical tools who has experienced some success as a dual-threat quarterback despite limitations as a passer. There could be untapped potential in Fields waiting to be realized in the right situation.
What are your thoughts on trading for Detroit’s Hendon Hooker or Green Bay’s Malik Willis and developing one of them as a long-term starter at QB? — Peter H.
I don’t love the idea of trading for Hooker or Willis in the hopes that they’ll develop into a long-term answer based on the Giants’ immediate need at quarterback. The Giants need more of a known commodity on the veteran market. If they’re going to take a big swing, do so in the draft with someone like Alabama’s Jalen Milroe in the second round.
A quarterback like Hooker or Willis would make more sense as trade targets for a team with a starter in place but an uncertain future — more like the Giants last offseason with Daniel Jones. Plus, those quarterbacks’ current teams would likely be reluctant to trade them since they’re cheap backups to high-priced starters.
Please dissect and provide your opinion of the reality of the Giants trading the No. 3 pick to Minnesota for J.J. McCarthy. — Joseph A.
This is an interesting thought that became less likely after Darnold turned into a pumpkin at the end of the season. But I never saw a strong reason for the Vikings to trade McCarthy unless Darnold went on a magical Super Bowl run that cemented his status as their quarterback of the future. Otherwise, nothing should have changed from the belief the Vikings had when they took McCarthy with the 10th pick in last year’s draft. Even if he has to sit behind Darnold for another year or so, the Vikings picked McCarthy to be their long-term quarterback. I can’t see them abandoning that plan without him ever getting on the field.
From the Giants’ perspective, the intrigue in McCarthy is understandable. On the surface, it would be hard to reconcile trading the No. 3 pick this year for a player they passed on with the No. 6 pick last year. But if the Giants had McCarthy rated higher than Ward or Sanders, the cost of trading just the No. 3 pick to Minnesota would be less than moving up to No. 1 or No. 2 this year. That McCarthy missed his entire rookie season due to two knee surgeries and is one year into his rookie contract are significant drawbacks.
Overall, I can’t get behind trading the third pick for McCarthy, but I can see an argument for the move. I don’t think it’s worth spending too much time contemplating, however, because I can’t see the Vikings being compelled to deal the 21-year-old.
Please explain how Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. were not good enough for us but are now starters somewhere else. — Anonymous
The entire Penix situation was bizarre, with Atlanta drafting him at No. 8 a month after giving Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract. And Penix’s three starts are way too small of a sample size to draw conclusions.
Nix is different because he started the entire season in Denver and had success. That may be a function of being a perfect fit for Broncos coach Sean Payton’s system, but that would lead to questions about why the Giants didn’t believe their offensive-minded head coach Brian Daboll could produce similar results.
Giants general manager Joe Schoen spoke about how their pre-draft evaluations of recent quarterbacks have been accurate. It’s not clear how they viewed Nix, who was the 12th pick last year, but there weren’t any indications that they had serious interest during the pre-draft process.
I’m a believer that teams shouldn’t force a quarterback pick if there isn’t conviction he’ll be a franchise QB. Taking wide receiver Malik Nabers at No. 6 last year obviously looks like a good pick. But that pick will still be weighed against the quarterbacks that went after the Giants’ spot until they have their answer at the position.
QB1 prediction on Jan. 13? — Mike M.
Shedeur Sanders. I’ll stress that it is only Jan. 13. It’s hugely important to note that Daboll is in the early stages of evaluating these quarterbacks, if he has even started the process. We saw on Hard Knocks that he’ll have a major voice, so it’s impossible to know how he’ll evaluate Sanders, Ward or any other draft prospect. But there has been plenty of smoke about interest in Sanders from the Giants’ front office. Couple that with my expectation that Cam Ward will be the No. 1 pick, and my prediction today is that the Giants will land Sanders, and he’ll be their starter next season.
If the two QBs are gone by the time the Giants pick, do you think they should take Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, someone else, or trade back and stockpile picks? — Dwight M.
I don’t think the stockpile picks option will be available in a trade back if the quarterbacks are gone, but that should absolutely be a consideration if there’s interest. It’s a tough call on which non-quarterback to take at No. 3.
I understand the appeal of Hunter’s talent, and cornerback is a need and a premium position. But the Giants need to invest in their trenches, which would make it hard to pass on Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. The Giants could team Carter with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux for the next year or two. Then, Carter’s presence would provide an off ramp from Thibodeaux if the team doesn’t want to commit with a second contract.
Wouldn’t it be better for the Giants to play to their strength and select a defensive tackle like Mason Graham, or even an edge/LB who can drop into coverage like Abdul Carter with their first-round pick, rather than overdraft a QB? — Eric S.
I don’t see the Giants passing on one of the quarterbacks unless Daboll doesn’t believe in them. But as mentioned, I like the prospect of adding Carter to the defense. Graham is another strong option who would fill the gaping hole next to Dexter Lawrence, but I’m not sure if the Michigan product’s upside is as great as Carter’s or Hunter’s.
Was anyone else really going to give Brian Burns that contract? It felt like a bad move at the time that aged poorly. He’s a good player, not a $30-million-a-year player. The money and draft pick could have been better used to fill multiple holes. — Daniel G.
I’ve gotten a lot of pushback for my ambivalent takes on the Burns trade, but I just don’t see how the acquisition can be evaluated without considering the contract and the trade compensation. If Burns was a free agent, I think his five-year, $141 million contract would be a reasonable market value deal. And if he was still on his rookie contract, then the trade cost of second- and fifth-round picks would be a steal.
But there was an opportunity cost involved in acquiring Burns. Would the combination of the money spent and the draft picks forfeited have been more valuable to spread around rather than investing those resources into one player based on where the Giants were in their rebuild? I think that’s a valid question, even though Burns was a very good player in his first season with the Giants.
Aside from Andrew Thomas, Dexter Lawrence and Malik Nabers, does anyone else on this roster even have Pro Bowl potential? The ceiling of every other player seems to be a functional starter at best. — Dan M.
I’d put Burns in the Pro Bowl-caliber category, but I get your point. That’s why I’m not encouraged by the state of the roster, especially with Schoen touting how many starters are under contract. Is it really that beneficial to have 18 starters from a 3-14 team returning?
Beyond just filling holes, there needs to be upgrades on some of the existing starters. For instance, John Michael Schmitz appears locked in as the starting center, but he hasn’t shown much in his first two seasons. It will be critical for the promising 2024 rookie class to make the Year 2 leap the Giants have been lacking in recent years to raise the star potential of the roster.
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Chances we cut Evan Neal, even though there are no cap savings? — Chris A.
Very low. If the Giants are done with Neal, they should at least be able to clear his $4 million salary in a trade, even if it’s only a late-round pick swap. But I can’t see this regime throwing in the towel on Neal. They should finally move him to guard this offseason, but it remains to be seen if that’s their plan. Worst case, Neal figures to be a backup next season since there’s no financial benefit to dumping him.
Can you (or any living soul) give us fans any decent reasons why we should keep going along for the ride with these jokers? Retaining the minds that brought us arguably the worst/most embarrassing season in the history of the franchise seems like complacency with the status quo. Why should any of us consider re-upping our league pass? — Nico S.
Well, this question was framed bleakly! Allow me to provide a touch of positivity (out of character, I know). Things are at rock bottom right now, and there’s nothing in the near future that will generate enthusiasm. But the offseason is long. There will be free-agent acquisitions to fuel optimism. Then the draft will bring even more excitement.
Surely the moves the Giants make this offseason will be debated, but if they land a rookie quarterback, even the most jaded fans will likely rediscover some hope by training camp. And don’t worry, I’ll be there to bring you back down to earth then.
(Photo of Sam Darnold: Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
