Bitcoin: A surge in US money supply the key for BTC’s next big move?

  • Analysts project a possible BTC rise after a record uptick in US money supply. 
  • However, short positions against BTC have spiked, raising fears of a price correction. 

Bitcoin [BTC] has been in a price consolidation range between $60K and $70K for weeks, a boring set-up for speculators who thrive on volatility.

This sideways movement extended after the April halving event and the seemingly ‘stagnant’ demand from US spot BTC ETFs. 

But there’s a new developing narrative for the King coin—an uptick in the US money supply.

Bitcoin’s path forward

According to X user (formerly Twitter) TechDev_52, an entrepreneur and crypto analyst, BTC could be tipped for a ‘blowoff’ after BTC vs. M1 liquidity hit a record high. 

‘$BTC had no business setting new highs in 2021. M1 soared to record heights, but #bitcoin couldn’t set one against it. Now that it’s broken above its 2M supertrend, we’re likely in for that blowoff move it’s always signaled.’


Source: X/TechDev_52

The analyst blamed the ‘COVID panic M1 liquidity’ for the lack of ‘blowoff’ in 2021 when BTC printed a similar breakout against the money supply. 

For the unfamiliar, M1 liquidity tracks the most liquid chunk of the money supply. It includes currency and any assets that can swiftly be converted to cash. For M2, the scope goes further to some ‘not so liquid parts’ of the money supply, like savings deposits. 

Interestingly, M2 has also expanded by 0.7%, per another analyst, Willy Woo. In previous cycles, the surge in the money supply led to an uptick in BTC’s value in USD terms. 

It remains to be seen whether the BTC’s breakout against the M1 liquidity and M2 expansion will push it above the range.

However, recent data showed that leveraged funds hit record BTC short positions. This could be a hedge against any potential drop in BTC or bets on price correction. 


Source: X/ZeroHedge

In the meantime, a short-term move towards $70.5K was more likely after sweeping the liquidity at $68.4K.

According to Coinglass data, both levels, marked orange, were key liquidity cluster points that could act as magnets for price action. 


Source: Coinglass

Next: Ethereum weekly inflows hit $34 million – Are ETFs the reason?

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