- On-chain data shows renewed buying interest and lower supply on Binance, driving Bitcoin’s recent price increase.
- Open Interest and active addresses also suggest stronger market participation and potential for further gains.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been on a volatile path since the start of the year. Following an early rally, the cryptocurrency faced a sharp correction that left many investors uncertain about the market’s direction.
However, a recent surge on the 20th of January pushed Bitcoin’s price to a new all-time high, briefly breaking above $109,000.
Although the asset experienced a slight pullback, trading at $107,945, it remained up by 3.5% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a double-digit gain over the past week.
Amid this price activity, analysts have been closely monitoring key on-chain metrics.
According to one CryptoQuant analyst, the Binance Netflow SMA30—a 30-day moving average of netflows on Binance—has offered valuable insights into market sentiment and price trends.
The analyst points out that shifts in this metric often correlate with notable price movements, indicating that the current rally may have more room to run.
Bitcoin netflow trends and market dynamics
The Binance Netflow SMA30 metric has historically been a useful indicator for anticipating Bitcoin’s short-term price direction.
When the metric enters positive territory, it often signals increased selling pressure as more Bitcoin flows into Binance.
For example, in May 2024, a positive Netflow SMA30 coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s price from $71,000 to $50,000, highlighting a period of elevated supply and bearish sentiment.
Source: CryptoQuant
Conversely, when the Netflow SMA30 turns negative, it typically indicates reduced spot supply and stronger upward momentum.
This pattern was evident in November 2024, when the metric shifted negative, and Bitcoin climbed from $74,000 to $108,000.
As of the 17th of January, the SMA30 returned to negative territory, sitting at -207.85, suggesting renewed buying interest and raising the possibility of another rally to a new all-time high.
Additional insights
Beyond the Binance Netflow SMA30, other indicators provided a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.
Open Interest data from Coinglass shows a 4.61% increase in the last 24 hours, reaching a valuation of $71.21 billion.
Source: Coinglass
Open Interest volume has also risen by 156.60% over the same period, hitting $179.14 billion.
These increases reflected growing trader engagement and potential momentum in the derivatives market, which can influence Bitcoin’s spot price.
In addition, Glassnode data on active addresses—a proxy for retail participation—revealed recent spikes in user activity.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026
The number of active addresses surged from below 1 million earlier this month to 2.2 million by the 17th of January, before retreating to 1.1 million as of the 19th of January.
Source: Glassnode
While the fluctuation in active addresses indicates variability in retail interest, the overall increase earlier in the month suggests that more participants are engaging with the Bitcoin network.
