The rankings are for mixed leagues, standard 5×5 roto. This format is obsolete for many, who play points leagues or head-to-head, or DFS or sim games. I try to note where format makes a difference. But it’s called “standard” for a reason and we have to start somewhere.
The boldface price at the end of each player comment is what I would pay for him in a mono league auction (AL-only or NL-only). They are not projections of roto dollar values. Rather they are bets, calculated with an eye toward constructing a winning team in this format. You will note that my prices are usually (but not always) lowball. I find that sticking to my guns on the low end enables me to pay the extra bucks for the players I really want.
You should not use these prices in mixed league auctions. If you do, you will lose out on great players because they are worth more in mixed leagues. At the same time, you will pay way too much for mediocrity, which is the cardinal sin in mixed leagues.
In a 15-team mixed league, much less a 12-team or 10-team league, there is no getting around the fact that good players will be available for one dollar, or as reserves or free agents. The pool of good players exceeds the number of roster slots. Mediocrity is essentially free. This destroys a linear pricing structure.
Some people like to go into a mixed league auction with projected roto earnings as a guide. That’s fine, as long as you know that in reality you can pay $60 for Ronald Acuña and $60 for Gerrit Cole and not suffer in the end game, as long as you save enough money to top a $1 or $3 bid in the endgame for mediocrities you think will step up. My general aim is to have about $27 left for my final nine players.
The designations Reserve A and B are those not worth bidding on who have a chance to play sooner or later, more or less. By opening day, several of them will be worth auction bids. PFA means Possible Free Agent, or not worth a roster slot now but worth an eye.
No doubt I have missed some prospects who will contribute in 2024, but I tried to note all those reasonably close to 2024 action. Feel free to ask about others, or to comment in general. If I’m wrong, please tell me so we all know better before draft day.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) I mean, 59 doubles. Caught stealing in his first attempt of the year, then stole 23 in a row. You can’t bank on a repeat but you can bank on 15 steals, plus everything else he does. Again, don’t expect a full repeat, but then he’s due for a 35-HR season. $39
Bryce Harper (PHI) Probably won’t get his outfield eligibility back. Steady as she goes, pretty bankable for 33/15 with B+ batting average and A+ OBP in a very good lineup. Still quite capable of a monster season, indeed it is rather likely in a Hall of Famer — barring serious injury, that’s who he is. $33, two more in OBP leagues.
Pete Alonso (NYM) Sooner or later I’ll be wrong, but until I am, I will continue to alternate Alonso with Matt Olson. This is a Pete year, he might be available in the third round, while Olson will go around the first turn. It’s not magic, it’s natural ebb and flow in hitters who aren’t as great as their peaks.
With this in mind, I will make sure to draft an anti-Matt Olson first — a speedy non-first baseman. A top starting pitcher can work too, but I don’t see any SPs worth a first- or even a second-round pick this year. $32
Matt Olson (ATL) I know, it’s an outrage to rank him so low. I do this because of the numbers — .247, .195 and .240 — which are three of his yearly BAs since 2018. The .195 was in 2020 but, you know, .195.
He’s streaky and slumpy. Last year he burst out of the gate, hitting .361 after nine games. But even in his monster year, from April 10 through June 22, he hit .210. He was great from then on, with just a few tiny dips, and if you want to conclude that the major slump is no longer part of Olson’s game, that is your right. I am not drawing this conclusion, I am rather concluding that Olson’s 2024 fallow periods will be either longer or more frequent, or both. As I said, sooner or later I will get Olson/Alonso wrong, but for now I see nothing of substance that has changed about either guy. See you in 2025, Matt. $28
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) One great year, and now four years of meh. You wonder if his weight is getting in the way, but it’s not stopping his hard hits or increasing strike zone mastery (14.7% Ks, 9.8% walks). I’m pretty sure that part of his problem is that the Blue Jays just don’t see mediocre lefties, only the really good ones, and if anything they’ll see even more righties in 2024.
And yet the proven skills say Vladie should have better results, and he’s still only 25 this season. He’s going to fall in drafts, and at worst will be disappointing rather than bad. And it’s rare indeed that a hitter posts a 1.002 OPS season and doesn’t get over .900 a few more times. $27 makes me a little queasy but I’ll do it. Might not get him though.
Spencer Steer (CIN) Also qualifies at third base and the outfield. Finished strong and slugged higher on the road, good growth indicators, and for stability Steer commanded the strike zone in his first full season. He is also fully capable of doubling his stolen bases although that is of course not bettable. Just don’t expect “regression.” $22
Christian Walker (ARI) My gut says “no” here but facts are facts. Under the hood, everything he did is repeatable. $22
Triston Casas (BOS) Leveled off the final month, but that’s about all the regression we should expect. No regression at all, actually, because his mean has yet to be established. Indeed, growth is more likely. His O-zone swings were quite good at 26%, yet Casas did swing at strikes (68.6%). Combine with near-elite hard hits and barrels, and there’s your high-average power. No speed, as in zero SBs are his baseline, but he should move up in an improved lineup. $21
Yandy Diaz (TB) All of a sudden he’s 32. Lots of talk early last year about his reduced ground balls and increased home runs, so go figure: his GB rate shot back up in the second half, while his slugging was actually a little higher. Everything about him except possibly his age says “repeat.” Maybe they will finally let Yandy play more than 137 games. $20
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) Gotta love that he still steals bases at will at age 36. But you can’t bet on even 10 bags, and while his hard hits were an excellent 50.7%, he took a big hit in hitting fastballs, both four-seamers and sinkers. Goldy is great at hunting sloppy slop, and he’ll never lose that, but we should expect more heat as long as it’s working for pitchers. $18, one more in OBP leagues.
Josh Naylor (CLE) Always cool to see two brothers on the same team. Also cool is that Josh did it — he became the new John Kruk. There has always been a place for the barrel-chested lefty bat in baseball, the slow-pitch softball player who can hit the fast pitches. In my old man consciousness, the lineage goes back to Smokey Burgess, but it’s way older than that.
The key point is that Naylor hit lefties well enough to stay in the lineup, and therefore he’s a great long shot for 100 RBIs. His Runs will not be commensurate, however, as the lineup peters out after Josh, plus they like to pinch run for him. That’s too bad since he will steal a base when they give it to him. Good-not-great power, plenty of doubles, and with 13.7% Ks, we may see better still. $17
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) Plays this year at age 31, figures to hit .245 with walks and 29 home runs in a decent lineup. Nice CI. $17
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) Not a disaster but a relative bust. No substantive changes in the skills he displayed in 2022, just off a little, so I, and many others, expected Vinnie to turn it around last year, but then he tore his labrum. Expected to be ready, will surely come cheaper than last year. $16
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) Figure he bats no lower than fifth, and figure he bats between two lefty hitters, which is almost certain, and he’s going to see a lot of the lefties he feasts on — with a boatload of OBP batting ahead of him. Another great long shot for 100 RBIs. $15
Spencer Torkelson (DET) They keep trying to make Comerica Park more hitter-friendly but it’s not working for Torkelson. Maybe this year will be better, the guy did hit 20 home runs on the road. He traded BA for power but at least he got the power, and he’s still only 24. His current ADP of 120 is a market declaration that he’s going to hit for a better BA than .233, but he’s high-K/high-FB and I don’t see it as bettable. And it’s not like the Tigers are a great lineup. $15
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) Easy path to stardom: hit lefties better. It figures to happen naturally, but of course he has to do it, and then it’s a matter of when. Meanwhile, he’s another high-K/fly-ball hitter, prone to streak and slump, with a boost from his home park. $15
Anthony Rizzo (NYY) The ranking is a compromise of a guess, as is his price. Really, he’s worth more or less, and that depends on what he does in March. If they’re hemming and hawing and he’s not playing, I wouldn’t even take him as a reserve in mixed leagues. If Rizzo is playing and feels fine, he moves up four or five slots. $14
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) Hasn’t lived up to his pedigree but he’s not far away — produces plenty of hard hits and uses the whole field, just needs to take a few more balls. Turns 26 in April with 413 games under his belt. I might go the extra buck this year. $14, one less in OBP leagues.
Wilmer Flores (SF) Quietly posted a career-high .863 OPS — .947 on the road — at age 31. May play more with Gabe Kapler gone — they really can’t afford to play him less. With just 13.9% Ks, expect more of the same. Also qualifies at third base. $14
Josh Bell (MIA) A professional hitter of his caliber and type should not slump so often nor for so long as Bell has — before 2023 anyway. Last year he started slowly but soon picked it up and sustained. No big deal, Bell is CI filler in mixed leagues, but fills a boring regular roster slot in NL leagues.
Do not for a minute think I am disparaging boring regular roster slots in mono leagues. Many a roto league has been won with an offense full of them. $13
Elehuris Montero (COL) Yes, he walked more and struck out less in the second half. But that was easy to do, as in the first half he walked three times and struck out 44 in 112 PAs. That said, Montero has serious power and has that home park. His improved hitting also coincided with the move to first base, abandoning the silly notion that he could play third. And he’s still in growth land at age 25. Good speculative CI in mixed leagues, and you might want to pick up a decent bat as a reserve to plug in for Montero’s road games. Until the injuries kick in… $13
Ty France (SEA) Off year, apparently driven by more O-zone swings and fewer in-zone swings. It could also be that you pretty much have to be a superstar to beat that ballpark more than once. I don’t think France will be the exception, although he’d be an acceptable CI in a neutral home park and lineup. $12
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF) Respectable .709 OPS vs. lefties means they won’t pinch hit for him against the battalions of sucky lefties in the fifth inning, which is something that should help his RBIs. Tough park for lefty power but Wade is one of the few who can beat the park, up to a point anyway. Decent glove at first base and also qualifies in the outfield, increasing his value to the Giants and to us. Also, he regained the strike zone command and contact he had shown in the minors and when he first came up. Not too many 30-year olds are setup for a career year but it happens all the time.
Wade’s current ADP is 370, a reserve pick, but he’s a perfectly defensible OF5. $11, two more in OBP leagues.
Alex Kirilloff (MIN) Helpless against lefties in just 56 PAs. The Twins are loaded with young righty bats, so I think it wise to consider Kirilloff a platoon player. Plenty good against righties, not to sell him short, and growth is still possible at age 26, but 450 PAs are the over/under. $12
Nolan Schanuel (LAA) From college to the majors in the same season, and they threw him right into the leadoff slot, where for 29 games he slashed .275/.402/.330. They even played him against some lefties, but of course at times they had to get Eduardo Escobar’s bat into the lineup… and, hey, let’s get a look at Mike Moustakas… We should be able to assume that they won’t platoon their No. 1 pick.
Note more walks than strikeouts in the major leagues at the age of 21. There is some concern about his power, but Schanuel is a big guy who showed power to all fields in college. It may take a while in the bigs — for now, figure 15-18.
Little doubt that he will hit for average with many walks. Also stole some bases in college but no real speed. At the top of the lineup, he should produce better than average, all cats considered. Good reserve pick in mixed leagues, a foil for low-average power hitters. $11, one more in OBP leagues.
José Abreu (HOU) Reports of his demise were premature, although it’s likely enough that Abreu never sees 20 home runs again. Again, boring, but again, he’ll hit in a nice RBI slot. $11
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) A .539 September OPS tarnished his season, and the slump extended through the postseason. Lowe played 161 games, but he better do something about his .642 OPS vs. lefties or that won’t happen again. Also lost his prime slot in the batting order. Caution is advised. $10
Brandon Belt (FA) Finished strong, a consideration at his age (turns 36 in April), but he can’t stay on the field. This price is tentative, based on platoon PAs, good health at the start, and where he lands. $7
C.J. Cron (FA) Worthy reserve pick in mixed leagues. He either hits home runs or disappears. Too little is known to price him — call him your basic low-average power hitter with a regular job, and adjust from there. $10
Rowdy Tellez (PIT) Always made good contact for a power hitter, and so a surprising 24.5% Ks last year. Turns out his actual contact was an easy career-best 7.8% Sw/Str. His problem was taking strikes, an occupational hazard for hitters who are looking for a particular pitch, and take it if they don’t get it. He needs to belt a few get-me-over sliders into the river, which he will surely do in the fullness of time. Tellez is pretty clearly a better hitter than he was in 2023.
Strict platoon limits him, but not the worst hole-filler in a mixed league. We’re still waiting for his chest fight with Dan Vogelbach. They could do it at the All-Star Game! Also on the card: Alejandro Kirk vs. Josh Naylor! $9
Kyle Manzardo (CLE) Over from the Rays, three minor league years of .284/.384/.542, just 17.5% Ks. He is exactly what the Tribe of Guardians need. Although Manzardo is not on the 40-man roster, it would seem to be the plan that he either plays first base or DH. If it happens, he’s worth a low double-digit bid, but right now Reserve A.
Ryan Noda (OAK) 97 PAs against lefties are more than a lot of rookie lefties ever get. With his minimal platoon split, perhaps they will let Noda play every day. They’re going to lose anyway, might as well find out if he can cut it. Noda is Three True Outcomes but the power has been a little light. He is granted no favors by the A’s lineup and home park. Might platoon, might be gone by June, but capable of 30 homers. $9
Jared Young (STL) Scooped up from the Cubs in early November. It appears, appears I say, that his lefty power took a step up. Also 79th% sprint speed. Reserve B
Michael Toglia (COL) The Rockies drafted him out of high school in 2016, and then in the first round in 2019 out of UCLA. Somebody likes (liked?) him. Three True Outcomes, a switch-hitter, but too many Ks to succeed. Reserve B
Darick Hall (PHI) Running out of time at age 28, plenty of lefty power but as ever too many strikeouts. Needs a chance to play. Reserve B
Justin Turner (TOR) No question he can still hit, but I hope they aren’t planning to play him at third base. Toronto needs a lefty bat, or two. At least Turner hits righties, a little better than lefties actually. To repeat: the team is going to face a whole lot of righties. Playing at age 39, can’t bet on 130 games. I stay away in AL leagues unless he’s a gift, and he’s not even a good reserve pick in mixed. $8
Joey Votto (FA) Now he’s your basic high-K/high-FB hitter, with an excellent eye. Still MLB-average hard hits, Votto should still be capable of a sweet high-average power streak — as a Hall of Famer, we can almost expect it. But we can certainly expect him to get hurt. $6, two more in OBP leagues.
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) Hard to see more PAs, but carries on the Mark Reynolds tradition. I’m assuming Wisdom makes the team, but he’s the kind of guy who gets released — an all-or-nothing righty with limited defensive value. For now $6.
Nick Loftin (KC) Also plays both second and third base, and possibly the outfield, so he’s very likely to make the team if not start. Emerging power and just 13.2% Ks in the minors last year, and takes his walks. $5 but probably goes for a buck.
Ryan O’Hearn (BAL) Here’s a guy with a five-year track record of .219/.293/.390, as a first baseman/corner outfielder. About as hopeless as they come. Boom, .289/.322/.480.
But even if he is this good, and he’s probably not as he still chases and strikes out too much, O’Hearn will be strictly platooned at best. And his best position is DH although he also qualifies in the outfield (this season anyway). Given the talent that’s knocking on the door in Baltimore, it’s hard to see more than 400 PAs and easy to see fewer than 300. $5
Trey Mancini (MIA) Sharp decline and about to turn 32, no exploitable platoon split, and a liability in the field. His hope is that the Fish make him the full-time DH or close to it, which seems likely enough. Sure, he can rebound, stranger things have happened. It’s not looking good, but so what. A few bucks can’t hurt much. $4
DJ LeMahieu (NYY) Alarming increase from 13.1% to 22.2% Ks at age 35. A team trying to win needs better than what LeMahieu has given them for three years now. I’ll be surprised if he’s a regular for long, although with all the injuries, he’ll probably play regularly for stretches — unless he’s the one who gets hurt. Also qualifies at third base. $4
Garrett Cooper (SD) Probably too late at age 33, but he never really got a chance to play. Gets hurt a lot, and that’s a big part of it. Figure he’ll get the weak side of a platoon. $4
Carlos Santana (MIN) I thought he was finished but no (6 SBs!). He hit the fastball. But even maintaining, he is a below average bat for first base. Santana would have trade value to a contender with an injury hole. $3, one more in OBP leagues.
Jake Cronenworth (SD) Also qualifies at second base. Figured to play less because he’s just not that good. And now he figures to play even less. $3
Ji Man Choi (FA) He’s better than 2023 but not good enough to win a platoon role, except in desperation. $1
Matt Mervis (CHC) Has the power and the walks but, one more time, too many Ks. The Cubs don’t seem eager to play him. Reserve B
Wes Clarke (MIL) Add him to the Three True Outcomes list. Age 24 and bats right. Seems that he’s not going to catch after all, so now his road is a hard road. Reserve B
Nick Pratto (KC) Negative defensive value at the three easiest positions, and his bad rookie K rate of 36.3% worsened to a shameful flat 40%. Probably worth a few bucks if he makes the team, but I don’t think he will. PFA
Alfonso Rivas (STL) A dizzying offseason of DFA’s, bouncing from weak-hitting team to weak-hitting team every few weeks. Five-year minor league slash of .297/.404/.440, but he needs that to hold up in full if he wants to play first base or an outfield corner. PFA
Trevor Larnach (MIN) Big power, big walks, big strikeouts, will probably see action but doubtful to make the team. PFA
Dominic Smith (FA) The problem is that .254/.324/.366 was a rebound season. Hard to believe how his power just vanished – he slugged .571 in 2019-2020 but just .355 since, and he’s still only 28. His batted ball profile explains nothing, although his hard hits fell to 30% last year. He should be better but I give up. PFA
Jason Vosler (FA) Plenty of power, but way too many Ks at age 30. Bats left, and plays other positions, which may help him land a bench slot. PFA
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) The verdict may not be in yet, but the jury members are taking their seats. PFA
Yuli Gurriel (FA) You can’t play first base with a .653 OPS over his past two years, and he turns 40 in June. PFA
Jared Walsh (TEX) Painful to watch, then he hit .217 for Salt Lake City, which is hard to do. That was a quick career. PFA
Eric Hosmer (FA) Near as I can tell he didn’t play at all after the Cubs released him in May. Very probably finished. If not, Hosmer will hit ground balls to second base until they can’t take it anymore. I guess PFA.
(Top photo of Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports)
