If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people who can’t scroll social media without learning of another season-ending injury, help is here!
I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds. (The stats here capture action up to the morning of Thursday, April 11th)
I believe the process is as important as the result, so I’m going to walk you through the theories behind the “hidden gems” pitching and hitting targets (and the numbers I’m looking hardest at) before listing the top adds below. This worked really well for my fantasy football waiver wire column, but I know fantasy football and baseball are different beasts, so feel free to leave any feedback in the comment section.
Here we go…
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters With Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (+20 Pitches Thrown)
- Merrill Kelly, ARI — Slider 44.0%, Four-seamer 35.0%, and Changeup 31.0%
- Bryce Miller, SEA — Split-Finger 52.2% and Four-seamer 40.6%
- Jared Jones, PIT — Slider 47.5% and Four-seamer 42.3%
- Gavin Stone, LAD — Changeup 43.8% and Sinker 35.0%
- Brayan Bello, BOS — Slider 39.4% and Changeup 36.8%
- Graham Ashcraft, CIN — Slider 43.3% and Cutter 31.4%
- Mitch Keller, PIT — Sweeper 38.1% and Four-seamer 30.6%
- Lance Lynn, STL — Cutter 37.1% and Four-seamer 30.8%
- Yusei Kikuchi, TOR — Curveball 35.0% and Four-seamer 30.0%
Available Starters With <.300 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon)
- Ronel Blanco, HOU — 0.146 xwOBAcon
- Luis Gil, NYY — 0.176 xwOBAcon
- Kutter Crawford, BOS — 0.211 xwOBAcon
- Cody Bradford, TEX — 0.243 xwOBAcon
- Carlos Carrasco, CLE — 0.244 xwOBAcon
- Jordan Hicks, SF — 0.253 xwOBAcon
- Trevor Rogers, MIA — 0.254 xwOBAcon
- Joe Ross, MIL — 0.264 xwOBAcon
- Zack Littell, TB — 0.269 xwOBAcon
- Tyler Anderson, LAA — 0.269 xwOBAcon
- Hunter Greene, CIN — 0.273 xwOBAcon
- Andrew Abbott, CIN — 0.275 xwOBAcon
- Reynaldo Lopez, ATL — 0.276 xwOBAcon
- Trevor Williams, WAS — 0.277 xwOBAcon
- Ryan Pepiot, TB — 0.280 xwOBAcon
- Aaron Civale, TB — 0.294 xwOBAcon
- Frankie Montas, CIN — 0.295 xwOBAcon
- Tanner Houck, BOS — 0.298 xwOBAcon
Appearing on both lists/Hidden Gems: Not one starter shows up on both lists this week. You know what they say — absence makes the heart grow fonder. Corny adages aside, one player stood out to me in bold letters, displaying elite command and a devastating fastball/changeup combo. Bookmark this page and go add the Rangers’ Cody Bradford yesterday. I expect him to bump Andrew Heaney from the rotation when Texas’ SPs make it back.
Hitters
When it comes to hitting, the approach is a little different. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. I’ve been using 90th percentile EV to better capture frequency than singular batted ball events (“max EV”) but the intended description is the same. The list below also uses a contact quality metric — except this time we’ll pair it with above average chase rates, a great determinant of plate skills. Last, but not least, it’s the Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive leaderboard — because staying on-brand matters.
Available Hitters With >107 m.p.h. 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 5 Batted Ball Events)
- Miguel Sanó, DH, LAA — 114.5 m.p.h. EV
- Jo Adell, RF, LAA — 111.9 m.p.h. EV
- Joey Bart, C, PIT — 110.7 m.p.h. EV
- Giancarlo Stanton, DH, NYY — 110.5 m.p.h. EV
- Matt Chapman, 3B, SF — 109.8 m.p.h. EV
- Austin Barnes, C, LAD — 108.5 m.p.h. EV
- Michael A. Taylor, CF, PIT — 108.3 m.p.h. EV
- Garrett Cooper, 1B, CHC — 108.3 m.p.h. EV
- Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, BAL — 108.0 m.p.h. EV
- Brenton Doyle, CF, COL — 108.0 m.p.h. EV
- Dominic Canzone, LF, SEA — 107.9 m.p.h. EV
- Jordan Westburg, 2B, BAL — 107.9 m.p.h. EV
- Korey Lee, C, CWS — 107.7 m.p.h. EV
- Hunter Renfroe, RF, KC — 107.4 m.p.h. EV
- Matt Vierling, RF, DET — 107.4 m.p.h. EV
- Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 107.4 m.p.h. EV
- J.D. Davis, 3B, OAK — 107.3 m.p.h. EV
- Nelson Velázquez, RF, KC — 107.3 m.p.h. EV
Available Hitters With <25% Chase Rate And >.420 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon); min. 20 Plate Appearances
- Justin Turner, 3B, TOR — 24.3% Chase, 0.511 xwOBAcon
- M.J, Melendez, LF, KC — 24.0% Chase, 0.503 xwOBAcon
- Taylor Ward, LF, LAA — 24.1% Chase, 0.502 xwOBAcon
- Miguel Sanó, DH, LAA — 22.2% Chase, 0.500 xwOBAcon
- Carlos Correa, SS, MIN — 24.5% Chase, 0.495 xwOBAcon
- Edouard Julien, 2B, MIN — 12.7% Chase, 0.475 xwOBAcon
- Jared Walsh, 1B, TEX — 19.6% Chase, 0.474 xwOBAcon
- Joey Gallo, 1B, WSH — 17.4% Chase, 0.465 xwOBAcon
- Jake Cronenworth, 1B, SD — 24.8% Chase, 0.462 xwOBAcon
- LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B, SF — 20.0% Chase, 0.460 xwOBAcon
- Korey Lee, C, CWS — 23.3% Chase, 0.447 xwOBAcon
- Bo Naylor, C, CLE — 20.9% Chase, 0.442 xwOBAcon
- Aaron Hicks, RF, LAA — 20.6% Chase, 0.440 xwOBAcon
- Mark Canha, LF, DET — 18.3% Chase, 0.437 xwOBAcon
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 19.5% Chase, 0.436 xwOBAcon
- Zach McKinstry, 3B, DET — 16.7% Chase, 0.430 xwOBAcon
- Richie Palacios, RF, TB — 15.4% Chase, 0.421 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters With +9 Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drives
- Justin Turner, 3B, TOR — 11 Pulled FBLD
- Michael Conforto, LF, SF — 11 Pulled FBLD
- Isaac Paredes, 3B, TB — 11 Pulled FBLD
- Steven Kwan, LF, CLE — 11 Pulled FBLD
- Ezequiel Tovar, SS, COL — 11 Pulled FBLD
- Max Muncy, 3B, LAD — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Jurickson Profar, LF, SD — 10 Pulled FBLD
- James Outman, CF, LAD — 10 Pulled FBLD
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF, ARI — 9 Pulled FBLD
- Joey Gallo ,1B, WSH — 9 Pulled FBLD
Appearing on multiple lists/Hidden Gems: Justin Turner’s wholly ignoring the age curve, lighting up the spreadsheet and should be added in all but the most shallow formats. More surprisingly, however, is the return of Miguel Sanó (I highlighted him last week), even after adding a disciplinary parameter. Hard to ignore what the big man’s doing at the dish for the Halos.
Sano’s already secured the lion’s share of playing time at DH, he’s moved up two spots in the order and is playing against both left and right-handed pitchers — he even played the field on Wednesday! For a non-existent cost with +40 HR potential, it may be worth an “add now and ask questions later” approach before it’s too late.
Relief Pitchers
Targeting roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when drafting closers but zeroing in on stat combinations like elite command plus swing-and-miss-ability could help us identify the potential next-men-up, especially in more vulnerable bullpens. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does relievers better.
Relievers With >15% Swinging Strike And <35% Ball Rates (min 5 IP)
- Justin Slaten, BOS — 21.4% SwStr%, 33.9% Ball%
- JoJo Romero, STL — 19.8% SwStr%, 32.1% Ball%
- Kyle Hurt, LAD — 19.1% SwStr%, 23.8% Ball%
- Joe Jimenez, ATL — 19.1% SwStr%, 25.4% Ball%
- Hunter Stratton, PIT — 19.1% SwStr%, 27.0% Ball%
- Declan Cronin, MIA — 18.5% SwStr%, 31.5% Ball%
- James McArthur, KCR — 18.3% SwStr%, 28.0% Ball%
- Jason Adam, TBR — 18.2% SwStr%, 30.3% Ball%
- Aroldis Chapman, PIT — 18.0% SwStr%, 31.1% Ball%
- Kirby Yates, TEX — 18.0% SwStr%, 34.4% Ball%
- Edwin Diaz, NYM — 17.8% SwStr%, 34.2% Ball%
- Michael Kopech, CHW — 17.0% SwStr%, 34.8% Ball%
- Hunter Harvey, WSN — 16.9% SwStr%, 29.2% Ball%
- Kevin Ginkel, ARI — 16.3% SwStr%, 32.6% Ball%
- Ryan Helsley, STL — 15.9% SwStr%, 25.0% Ball%
- Chris Martin, BOS — 15.7% SwStr%, 28.9% Ball%
- Robert Suarez, SDP — 15.6% SwStr%, 34.4% Ball%
- Emmanuel Clase, CLE — 15.5% SwStr%, 26.2% Ball%
Difficult to ignore the presence of quite a few ascendant relievers on this list — many have either secured jobs already or are understudies threatening the lead.
Top waiver wire adds by position
CATCHER
- Gabriel Moreno, ARI — +10 Teams
- Ivan Herrera — +12 Teams
- Shea Langeliers, OAK — 12/15 Teams
- Reese McGuire, BOS — +15 Teams
FIRST BASE
- Ryan Mountcastle, BAL — +10 Teams
- Gavin Sheets, CHW** — +12 Teams
- Alex Kirilloff, MIN — 12/15 Teams
- Ty France, SEA — 12/15 Teams
- Connor Joe, PIT — +15 Teams
- Miguel Sanó, LAA — +15 Teams/Only
** – Prioritize for power
SECOND BASE
- Jordan Westburg, BAL — +10 Teams
- Jonathan India, CIN — +12 Teams
- Brendan Donovan, STL — 12/15 Teams
- Oliver Dunn, MIL* — +15 Teams
- Luis García Jr., WAS — +15 Teams
* – Prioritize for stolen bases
SHORTSTOP
- Ezequiel Tovar, COL — +10 Teams
- Jose Caballero, TB — +12 Teams
- Jeremy Peña, HOU — +12 Teams
- Blaze Alexander, ARI — 12/15 Teams
- Brayan Rocchio, CLE — 12/15 Teams
- Josh H. Smith, TEX — +15 Teams
- Javier Baez, DET — +15 Teams
- Nick Ahmed, CHW — +15 Teams
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THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman, SF — +10 Teams
- Eugenio Suarez, ARI — +12 Teams
- Trey Lipscomb, WAS* — +12 Teams
- Brett Baty, NYM — 12/15 Teams
- J.D. Davis, OAK** — 12/15 Teams
- Curtis Mead, TB — +15 Teams
- Tyler Freeman, CLE — +15 Teams
* – Prioritize for stolen bases
** – Prioritize for power
OUTFIELD
- M.J. Melendez, KC
- Taylor Ward, LAA
- Brenton Doyle, COL*
- Gavin Sheets, CHW**
- Will Benson, CIN
- Colton Cowser, BAL^
- Jurickson Profar, SD
- J.J. Bleday, OAK
- Connor Joe, PIT
- Brandon Marsh, PHI
- Oscar Colás, CHW
- Charlie Blackmon, COL
- Alex Burleson, STL
- Dominic Canzone, SEA ^
- LaMonte Wade Jr., SF^
- Nick Gordon, MIA^
* – Prioritize for stolen bases
** – Prioritize for power
^ – Strong-side platoon
STARTERS
- Garrett Crochet, CHW
- Jared Jones, PIT
- Kutter Crawford, BOS
- Cody Bradford, TEX
- Reynaldo Lopez, ATL*
- Ronel Blanco, HOU
- Brady Singer, KC
- Jack Flaherty, DET
- Tanner Houck, BOS
- Alec Marsh, KC
- Ben Brown, CHC
- Luis Gil, NYY
- Spencer Turnbull, PHI*
- Tyler Wells, BAL
- Chris Paddack, MIN*
- Zack Littell, TB
- Matt Waldron, SD
- JP Sears, OAK
- Jordan Wicks, CHC
- Cole Irvin, BAL*
- Trevor Rogers, MIA
- Louie Varland, MIN*
- Javier Assad, CHC
- Logan Allen, CLE
- Ryan Feltner, COL
- Eric Fedde, CHW
- Joe Ross, MIL*
- Paul Blackburn, OAK
- Joe Boyle, OAK
- Spencer Arighetti, HOU
- Trevor Williams, WAS
* – Upcoming two-start week
RELIEVERS
- Michael Kopech, CHW
- James McArthur, KC
- Kevin Ginkel, ARI
- Chad Green, TOR
- David Robertson, TEX
- Aroldis Chapman, PIT
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- Jeff Hoffman, PHI
- Ian Hamilton, NYY
Ranking Next Week’s Available Two-Steps
- Erick Fedde, CHW: vs. KC (Seth Lugo), @ PHI (Aaron Nola)
- Cole Irvin, BAL: vs. MIN (Chris Paddack), @ KC (Seth Lugo)
- Ryan Weathers, MIA: vs. SF (Jordan Hicks), @ CHC (Kyle Hendricks)
- Wade Miley, MIL: vs. SD (Joe Musgrove), @ STL (Sonny Gray)
- Jose Soriano, LAA: @ TB (Zack Littell), @ CIN (Graham Ashcraft)
- Kyle Hendricks, CHC: @ ARI (Tommy Henry), vs. MIA (Ryan Weathers)
- Ross Stripling, OAK: vs. STL (Sonny Gray), @ CLE (TBD)
- Tommy Henry, ARI: vs. CHC (Kyle Hendricks), @ SF (Jordan Hicks)
- Cal Quantrill, COL: @ PHI (Aaron Nola), vs. SEA (George Kirby)
- Joan Adon, WAS: @ LAD (Tyler Glasnow), vs. HOU (Hunter Brown)
UNIVERSAL SP STASH CANDIDATES, BY PROXIMITY
- Nick Lodolo, CIN — Returns this weekend (4/13) to start for the Reds.
- Walker Buehler, LAD — Next rehab start could be his last before heading back to Hollywood.
- José Buttó, NYM — Fantasy GMs and Mets fans alike are clamoring for Christian Scott but Buttó already excelled for the big club and should take the next open spot.
- Paul Skenes, PIT — Bailey Falter’s always one start from a demotion and a bus ride to Indianapolis. The next number called for the first place Pirates could be Skenes’.
- Christian Scott, NYM — Scott’s obliterating the competition in AAA and tracks to be this year’s highest FAAB expenditure. It’s only a matter of time… stash him now if you have the space.
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo: Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images, Sam Hodde/Getty Images; Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)
