Manchester City’s defeat at Nottingham Forest on Saturday was not just a blow to their Champions League qualification hopes but to the idea they are emerging from the difficult period that has dominated the middle months of their 2024-25 season.
Had they won at the City Ground, they would have jumped above Forest into third and looked highly likely to go on to secure a top-four finish, never mind the fifth place which should be enough to book their now-traditional spot in the blue-riband event of UEFA football, based on England’s current European co-efficient rating.
Their 1-0 defeat means they are four points adrift of third-placed Forest with 10 matches to go and firmly in the sights of Chelsea, Newcastle and all the teams down to Bournemouth in ninth, given the latter are four points behind City with a game in hand.
City have started to look more like themselves of late and have certainly become more stable than they were at the end of 2024 and start of 2025, but yesterday it was evident that you still can never be sure what to expect from them.
4 – Nuno Espírito Santo has won four Premier League games against Pep Guardiola, in the Spaniard’s top-flight league career only Jürgen Klopp (5) has more wins against him. Impressive. pic.twitter.com/mTbEBfmPlS
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) March 8, 2025
Their upcoming fixtures should provide some hope they will win enough points to get the job done. There are some tough games on the horizon — Brighton visit next, Everton away, Aston Villa and Bournemouth at the Etihad Stadium — but after a six-match run that has also included against Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea and Liverpool, the hardest part should be over.
The inconsistent nature of the other teams fighting for a top-four/five finish also means City do not have to be as relentless as they usually are at the end of a season to achieve their re-adjusted 2024-25 target.
There has been a sudden rejuvenation of the team that won the previous four Premier League titles, with City’s starting XI now filled mostly with young players, and they have the luxury of only one more midweek fixture all season following their early Champions League exit, meaning things are not as doom and gloom as they appeared in Nottingham at around 2.30pm on Saturday.
But there are still plenty of concerns surrounding individuals and positions…
Goalkeepers
Ederson has been one of the bedrocks of City’s recent successes and some of the more underrated aspects of his importance were brought into focus this week, thanks to fellow goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel.
“Take this season away maybe – the way City have been able to press has been because any ball over the top, he’s (Ederson) out, so he’s actually stopped the one-vs-one before it’s even happened,” former Leicester ’keeper Schmeichel said on the Stick To Football YouTube channel.
‘Take this season away” indeed, because things have not been working as they normally have at City, and Ederson is just one example. The Brazilian has had some occasional low moments in recent years but has generally been a consistent presence since he was signed in summer 2017 and his passing enables City to play football their way, but this season it’s been much harder to know what to expect out of him.
He was on the bench for the away game against Liverpool at the start of December and the goalkeepers’ hierarchy at City has been far more fluid than in recent seasons. But another problem is that Stefan Ortega, who has been a brilliant deputy since he signed in 2022, has had some struggles of his own, notably in the 5-1 defeat at Arsenal just over a month ago.
Ederson’s terrific save to deny Callum Hudson-Odoi yesterday was later rendered meaningless when he failed to deal with the same winger’s near-post shot, summing up how things are going.
Hudson-Odoi scores the winner for Forest (Ed Sykes/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images)
Right-back
Few would suggest Kyle Walker’s winter-window loan to Milan was a bad idea, as it felt like the 34-year-old’s time at City had run its course after seven and a half seasons, but the right-back situation is hardly thriving in his absence.
Matheus Nunes has been used there in recent weeks but he showed at Forest he is not good enough in that role. Nunes has been sharing the position with Rico Lewis, with the youngster seemingly being taken out of the firing line at the start of January but then back in the team against both Liverpool and Newcastle last month.
Nunes has struggled in the right-back role (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
City have three centre-backs out with long-term injuries, meaning there is not the same opportunity to move somebody from the middle of their defence out to its right side, which manager Pep Guardiola has done in the past with both John Stones and Manuel Akanji.
It is a great example of a recurring theme for City, and one that’s happening all across the pitch: none of the options are particularly appealing but one of them has to be used.
Holding midfielders
Guardiola dubbed winter-window buy Nico Gonzalez a ‘Mini-Rodri’ after his fine league debut against Newcastle last month but his fellow Spaniard has not looked quite as solid in subsequent matches, and was taken off at both Spurs and Forest.
Just like at right-back, though, the alternatives are not ideal.
Mateo Kovacic has had a difficult season but was the one turned to on Saturday with Nico on a yellow card (while he was hardly thriving, he was not having a shocker when replaced on the hour).
Kovacic’s more direct presence has a habit of opening up the pitch in good ways and bad, another example of the kind of trade-off Guardiola faces when choosing who plays and who does not: in a lot of positions there are several options who all have different, significant flaws.
Ilkay Gundogan, now 34, is another, like Lewis, who has been used more sparingly since New Year.
Midfield creativity
It is becoming more obvious as the games go by that Kevin De Bruyne’s days as a top-level force are coming to an end, which means one attacking midfield spot in the team is up for grabs.
Unfortunately for City, the Phil Foden succession plan to replace the Belgian, which seemed to have kicked into gear last season, is not proving to be a smooth transition, with the England international also struggling badly for form. Bernardo Silva, as was evident against Forest yesterday, is also far from his best, which has been the case for a while.
January signing Omar Marmoush has sometimes been operating in a central role but so far his performances have been a bit like Nico’s; very noticeable against Newcastle (he scored a hat-trick) but less impressive since. Marmoush has helped to add energy and a fresh feel to the team, and that was evident on his debut against Chelsea in January, but he is — now at least — hot and cold when it comes to impacting games.
Wingers
If we are talking hot and cold, nowhere is it more evident than on City’s wings.
With Jack Grealish deemed not ready to start a league match (he has not started in the top flight since December 21), Jeremy Doku and Savinho have been lighting up the wide areas of late. The problem is they generally light things up outside the opposition penalty box, not inside it.
That was very evident against Liverpool a fortnight ago, with Doku completing 15 of 20 take-on attempts and Savinho tearing into Andy Robertson but City being left with nothing to show for it all at the end of a 2-0 home defeat. It was a similar story at the City Ground on Saturday, but without the same confidence they would beat their man.
Doku has not been as effective in the penalty box (Photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)
It must be difficult for striker Erling Haaland if he cannot be sure of when — or how reliably — the ball will arrive from out wide, especially with a lack of creativity through the middle of the team as well.
Where does this leave City?
When laid out like this, the situation does sound bleak, but given the lower standards required to qualify for the Champions League rather than win the title, there should be enough at City to get the job done over the next couple of months.
City are not as easy to play against now as in recent months, January signing Abdukodir Khusanov has been a much-needed influence in the heart of the defence and they do seem to have more energy of late.
While many of their attackers are inconsistent at best, there will be games where the odd flash of brilliance will make the difference, and there will most likely be others where, as in the 4-0 home win against Newcastle last month, things click more spectacularly.
That did not happen at Forest in a game that showed that things are still far from perfect — but perfect has never been needed to finish fourth (or fifth).
GO DEEPER
Nottingham Forest 1 Manchester City 0: Hudson-Odoi’s knockout blow, where does it leave Euro chase?
(Top photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)
