How dominant are Thunder and Cavs, and what does it mean for the NBA playoffs?

Los Angeles Lakers 126, Oklahoma City Thunder 99.

It’s the first fly in the ointment for an Oklahoma City team that spent nearly the entire season crushing the NBA schedule before stumbling against the Houston Rockets and the Lakers this past weekend. The Thunder were beaten by 14 or more points just twice in their first 77 games, one of which was an NBA Cup game that didn’t count in the standings … then it happened twice in 48 hours.

At the risk of getting drunk on recency bias, it does raise a few questions about the Thunder in the postseason, especially against certain opponents. But I’m not wading into the nitty-gritty of matchups and tactics yet. Instead, I want to stay at 10,000 feet by looking at the big-picture question involving the Thunder and the 2024-25 NBA season.

Evaluating this team and this season, my overarching puzzle right now is whether we are witnessing historic greatness or if it’s merely goodness mixed in with some other unique elements of our current era.

By any measure, Oklahoma City is closing in on one of the best regular seasons in NBA annals. While this past weekend’s losses eliminated a chance at just the third 70-win season in league history, the Thunder still are on pace to top the record for average scoring margin, with their plus-12.5 besting the previous mark of plus-12.3 by the 1971-72 Lakers. Even if they fall short, the Thunder are nearly certain to end up in the top four all time and have the best mark in nearly three decades.

Historically, that’s a good omen: The top five teams in regular-season margin of victory (MOV) won the title, the sixth team didn’t win because it lost to the second-ranked team in the playoffs (1971-72 Milwaukee Bucks) and four of the next six teams on the list were also champions.

* — won championship

That’s the AI summary, but dig deeper and more questions arise. For instance, a year ago, the Boston Celtics ranked sixth all time in scoring margin with a team that everyone agreed, again, was very good but probably not what you’d call a “super team.”

And this season, the Thunder aren’t the only team bursting into the all-time victory margin charts. The Cleveland Cavaliers are having a super season at 62-16, and the Cavs’ plus-9.8 margin is not only better than any Cavs team with LeBron James on it, but also 15th all time. Meanwhile, Boston is coasting along at “just” a plus-9.3 margin, which is still the 26th-best margin and better than any team posted between 1973 and 1991.

Dive a little deeper and you’ll notice two distinct trend lines. The first is blocks of teams in expansion years: The NBA went from 10 to 16 teams in five years in the late 1960s and then had by far its three greatest margin-of-victory seasons in 1970-71 and 1971-72.

Those were the only double-digit seasons until Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls came along, again in expansion-era years in 1991-92 (having just gone from 23 teams to 27). It wasn’t until the 1996 Bulls laid waste to the league (plus-12.2 margin, 72 wins) that we had a true non-expansionary double-digit margin.*

(* — The league did add the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies that season, but percentage-wise, this was much more modest growth (7.4 percent) than previous expansions. The Bulls had a worse margin in their five games against their new Canadian foes than they did against the rest of the league, even losing once to the Raptors.)

For two decades, that was about it. The 2007-08 Celtics got over the double-digit hump, barely, at plus-10.3, but they were the only ones.

That takes us to the second trend line: the last decade. In the past 10 seasons, six teams posted double-digit margins. Some were truly awesome (the 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 Golden State Warriors), but others gave us more of that “very good” vibe, like last season’s Celtics, the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs and the 2019-20 Bucks.

Overall, the charts are now top-heavy with recent teams. Seven of the top 15 scoring margin seasons ever have been in the last decade, and just slightly further down the list are a couple of other recent teams that didn’t exactly storm their way through the postseason, such as the 2020-21 Jazz and 2018-19 Bucks.

That’s how it looks at the top of the list, but the “tell” that something quirky is going on is that the same thing is happening at the bottom. For instance, this season’s Washington Wizards have the third-worst scoring margin in NBA history, although their record is an almost-quasi-respectable 17-60.

Nothing to see here, though. This will be our third straight season and fourth in the last five with a double-digit negative team, as the 2020-21 Thunder, 2022-23 Spurs and 2023-24 Charlotte Hornets similarly covered themselves in glory. However, up until that point, only three teams this entire century had finished as a double-digit negative, and two of them were the Process Philadelphia 76ers in 2013-14 and 2015-16.

One cause for this seems obvious: Scoring margins in games are increasing. The average final margin of an NBA game the last two seasons has hovered around 12.5 points, compared to just a shade over 11 a decade ago. It only stands to reason that if the difference between winners and losers is increasing, the average scoring margin of the teams that win the most would also increase. For example, Cleveland has lost seven times by double digits but has won that way 39 times.

For that, we can blame two trends: increased pace and 3-point shooting. Teams average 98.9 possessions per game this season, versus 93.9 in 2014-15 and 90.9 in 2004-05. Absent other side effects (such as the Rubber Band Effect), that alone would be expected to juice the final scoring margin of an average game (more possessions equal more opportunity to expand a lead on an inferior foe). Second, the more than doubling of the league 3-point rate over the last two decades (from 19.1 percent of shots to 42.1 percent) induces greater variance on each possession, which makes it more likely that games won’t be as close at the end.

So … what does this mean for the playoffs? That’s the interesting part.

On paper, this year’s NBA is the big three and the little 27. The Cavs, Thunder and Celtics are en route to 60-win seasons with historic victory margins, a combined 165-40 (.805) when not playing one another. Meanwhile, it appears only two other teams will even scrape past the 52-win pole that has marked 44 of the last 45 champions (prorating shortened seasons to 82 games).

This is particularly relevant for those of you scripting “why the Warriors/Lakers/New York Knicks/Denver Nuggets/etc. can win it all” think pieces. Any scenario where those teams win involves the Thunder not winning, and the slightly less dominant Celtics and Cavs also not winning. The shortest intellectual pathway to making that case is to argue that something about this era makes their historic scoring margin less impressive than it seems at first glance.

It seems there is something in the water, with a fairly cause-and-effect loop. The way I’d frame the problem, though, is this: How much air should we let out of the victory margins of the last few seasons to make apples-to-apples comparisons to previous eras?

That question lacks a perfect answer, but we can triangulate. I don’t think any reasonable person considers this season’s Thunder or Cavs as dominant as the 1996 Bulls. But regardless of whatever adjustments you want to make, Oklahoma City’s 2024-25 season still ranks among the most impressive ever. Using a brand-new metric I came up with called “wins,” the Thunder are on pace for one of the eight best regular seasons in history, and Cleveland is not too far behind. If it weren’t for those pesky Thunder, the Cavs would be on track for the greatest win total since the 2016-17 Warriors.

But I’d argue there’s a difference here, between the sort of “beat-ably great” that defines several of the recent entries on the chart above and Jordan-Pippen Bulls or Curry-Durant Warriors level of great, where you knew the game was over once their team bus successfully made it to the arena.

OKC may soon get there; it would be hard to conceive of a team having a brighter future than this one, but I’m focused on right now. If an era adjustment pushes the Thunder and Cavs deeper into the second and third tiers of the top regular seasons by scoring margin, the examples of those who didn’t complete the job in June multiply considerably. That feels like a more accurate representation of the chessboard. The implied odds in Vegas, which give a roughly 1-in-5 chance to the non-Thunder-Cavs-Celtics field, seem to back that up.

So, don’t worry, just because of one bad weekend by the Thunder when they’ve already locked up their playoff spot. Instead, the “so you’re telling me there’s a chance …” argument for the other 13 teams in the playoffs starts with the league-wide trends that are boosting scoring margins along with everything else. History says the odds of seeing the Thunder play Boston or Cleveland in the NBA Finals are high, but it’s not the inevitability it might seem at first glance.

TankGeekery: Draft-pick shenanigans

Has a team ever tanked a game just to mess with somebody else’s draft pick? The Atlanta Hawks could be in that position soon.

Here’s the situation: The Sacramento Kings owe a top-12 protected first-round pick to Atlanta this year, and the Kings seem likely headed toward the Play-In Tournament. If the Kings make the playoffs, the pick conveys, but if the Kings are eliminated in the Play-In, that’s when the real fun begins.

Their likely draft order (assuming nobody moves up on lottery night) would then depend on where they finish among the Play-In losers. If the Kings have one of the two best records from those four teams, then the pick goes to the Hawks. Otherwise, Sacramento hangs on to the 12th pick this year and potentially sends a top-10 protected pick to Atlanta in 2026 (the obligation turns into two seconds if it doesn’t convey in 2026).

Check out the records: Atlanta is 37-41 and Sacramento is 38-40. If the Hawks and the Kings both are eliminated in the Play-In, then the Kings’ pick could depend on where the Hawks finish. Also, remember that any draft standings tie is decided by a random drawing, so we have the juicy possibility that this pick could be decided by a coin toss.

At any rate, this sets up the obvious possibility of shenanigans if either the Hawks or Kings are locked into their positions by Sunday’s regular-season finales. The Kings would have a strong incentive to tank to preserve their pick, especially if it would help any of the Orlando Magic, Hawks, Bulls or Miami Heat either tie or pass them. However, the Hawks would be just as incentivized to punt their finale to keep the Kings above them.

It’s yet another reason I’m not a big fan of allowing teams to trade first-round picks with conditional protections between fourth and 14th. We’ve already seen this with Philadelphia’s shameless descent to try to preserve a top-six protected pick, and we could get another egregious example this weekend.

Prospect of the Week: Kon Knueppel, 6-6 Fr. SF, Duke

Knueppel’s season ended Saturday with Duke’s shocking Final Four collapse against Houston, but he acquitted himself well against an elite defensive team. Finishing with 16 points on nine shots, to go with seven boards, two assists and nary a turnover, he showed again that he’s much more than just a catch-and-shoot player.

Knueppel has a sweet stroke and can shoot it on the move, as he showed all season while knocking down 40.6 percent of his 3s and 91.4 percent from the line. But the eye test deceives. Knueppel has a blocky build that makes it seem like he’s just some Scrappy McCollegeGuy who will get spiked at the rim on repeat. But in reality, he uses his frame to dish out punishment en route to the cup and never gets sped up.

The Houston game wasn’t an outlier either. I saw Duke in person four times this season, and Knueppel consistently stood out for his ability to dribble into shots at the rim. Even at the next level, his ability to play through contact and get downhill should make him an effective driver. It helps that defenders have to play him tight to take away his shot. Between those elements, he shot 57.7 percent on 2s in ACC games as a freshman and drew fouls at a high rate.

In particular, he’s very good with his left hand as both a driver and finisher and has a knack for rejecting screens and then bullying his way to the cup:

Nitpickers will point out they haven’t seen a lot of Knueppel shooting off the dribble. His video is mostly catch-and-shoots and drives to the rim, and while that’s an extremely efficient formula, he’s likely to need more variety to generate points at the next level. His offensive video also hinted at some masher post-up game against switches, something that might be explored further at the next level.

All of that makes Knueppel a high-floor prospect, especially since his defense looked solid and his size offers some positional flexibility. But with him being a certain lottery pick, possibly even in the top five, the questions about his ceiling also arise. He’s a slightly older freshman who will turn 20 in August, and he hasn’t shown the type of pull-up game that would allow him to conjure buckets from non-advantage situations.

Nonetheless, Cooper Flagg’s awesome season likely deflected some of the attention from a tremendous one-and-done campaign from Knueppel. He’s a deadly accurate movement shooter who offers some off-the-ball juice and passable defense, and I think he’s somehow remained a bit underrated among this year’s class.

Rookie of the Week: AJ Johnson, 6-5 SG, Wizards

While the league’s bottom-feeders go through the motions of playing out their schedule, a few rookies we haven’t seen much of this season are getting some extensive audition time.

One of the most notable is Johnson, a slender, bouncy 6-foot-5 guard who played in Australia last season and spent the first half of this year nailed to Milwaukee’s bench (seven appearances, one of which lasted longer than four minutes). That changed when he was sent to Washington as part of the Kyle Kuzma trade; the 20-year-old made four appearances last week and has seen 418 total minutes in Washington.

Johnson’s athletic gifts are obvious. He has superior straight-line speed and pops off the floor easily and has already put together a pretty impressive highlight reel. Take a look:

However, the Wizards are working with a raw player. Milwaukee surprised a lot of people in the league when it took Johnson with the 23rd pick in the draft because it seemed like a reach. Johnson struggled mightily in Australia a year ago and had a PER of just 10.4 in his 15 G League games before the trade. He’s had some moments since the Wizards put him in the lineup, including a 20-point game against the Brooklyn Nets, but the overall results are an 8.9 PER on 51.7 percent true shooting.

Some of that seems highly fixable. His push shot from the perimeter is a 29.6 percent proposition at the NBA level, but it doesn’t seem overtly broken, and he shot much better in the G League. Across all levels the past two seasons, he’s at a respectable 35.2 percent. Johnson also shows comfort attacking the rim with either hand and finishing or passing with his left and has enough burst to get downhill. He also shows some footwork in step-back 3s.

But his feel and instincts for the game are still … developing. For an athletic player, Johnson has bizarrely few defensive events (just 10 steals and three blocks all season), and despite his leaping ability, he is a non-factor on the glass. His lack of strength is a factor here. The hope is he’ll be better able to handle NBA physicality as his body fills out.

While he’s seen minutes at point guard, I think Johnson’s future is likely as a scoring wing. The playmaking instincts are a long way away, and the handle can get a little loose. A bump from a defender can send him off balance and reeling:

The Wizards will give him another week of run during their final four games and surely will highlight Johnson again in summer league. It’s a long-term play that might or might not pay off, but in the moment, the best thing Washington can do is shower him with minutes and see what happens.

(Top photo of Darius Garland and Jalen Williams: Ken Blaze / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)