Connor McDavid has won the Art Ross Trophy five times in his brilliant NHL career. He trails only Wayne Gretzky (10), Gordie Howe (6) and Mario Lemieux (6). McDavid is tied with Phil Esposito and Jaromir Jagr, meaning he’s in a group of six all-time Art Ross winners in the game’s history.
Unlike the others, McDavid is still writing his story. How many can he add?
Aging
Experts generally agree that the peak NHL player age is 25 to 27. McDavid will turn 28 in January but he should have more scoring championships in his future based on his current production, likely sustainability and the quality of team he’s playing for currently.
History suggests he will have an opportunity to win his final Art Ross in his mid-30s.
Three men in this group are outliers, having won both early and late in their fantastic careers. We can’t say for certain McDavid will be an outlier in this area, but his offensive prowess through the first decade of his career suggests he belongs in the upper tier.
One of the keys for McDavid is that his scoring is not eroding as he moves beyond what is considered the peak years of his career.
In 2023-24, his age-27 season, he scored 1.74 points per game. That’s an exceptional number, even compared to his own past.
| Year | Age | Pts-Game |
|---|---|---|
|
2015-16 |
18 |
1.07 |
|
2016-17 |
19 |
1.22 |
|
2017-18 |
20 |
1.32 |
|
2018-19 |
21 |
1.49 |
|
2019-20 |
22 |
1.52 |
|
2020-21 |
23 |
1.88 |
|
2021-22 |
24 |
1.54 |
|
2022-23 |
25 |
1.87 |
|
2023-24 |
26 |
1.74 |
|
2024-25 |
27 |
1.08 |
In the four seasons previous to 2024-25, McDavid reached supernova levels.
The 2020-21 season was an outlier due to the pandemic, but the three seasons that followed represent stunning production in the modern game.
Specifically, the 2022-23 season was historic compared to the rest of the league and in the context of his career. Why did it go so well?
Positives
In 2022-23, McDavid was 25 and at what is considered peak performance age for NHL players. This is a generational talent, these players tend to have more sustain at the top and then a gradual decline. Put simply, the McDavid bell curve of offensive production will not resemble any other player in this era. That said, if age-25 production lands as his all-time best, that would confirm the math for peak value.
In that season, his shots per 60 at all strengths spiked to an enormous 11.51, and his shooting percentage landed 18.2 percent of his shots in the back of the net. McDavid chose to pass less and shoot more, and the results gave him the highest shots per 60 and shooting percentage of his career, per Natural Stat Trick.
Former Oilers general manager Ken Holland has been heavily criticized since leaving the organization. His team-building efforts landed the team one game short of the Stanley Cup, but the Florida Panthers won and to the victor goes the spoils.
Holland supporters can point to the improved quality of McDavid’s linemates during the time he was general manager. Put simply, Zach Hyman was a clear upgrade over Zack Kassian. Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were linemates before and during Holland’s time with the team.
The Oilers’ power play has been elite for several years now. Between 2021-22 and 2023-24, Edmonton’s power play hit at 11.21 goals per 60, well clear of the competition, via Natural Stat Trick.
For these reasons, plus improved overall talent across the roster, McDavid may be in a better position to win a scoring championship now than he was in the days of Benoit Pouliot and Ty Rattie.
Worries
For McDavid, injuries have marbled themselves into his career, beginning in his rookie season when a collision robbed him of the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year.
As he matures, those injuries, combined with natural aging, will impact his foot speed and brilliant hand-eye co-ordination.
The eras are very different, but running McDavid’s numbers against Gretzky’s totals in three-year increments allows us a view into how Edmonton’s captain is aging compared to “The Great One.” The first segment for Gretzky includes his WHA season at age 18:
| Age | Wayne Gretzky | Connor McDavid |
|---|---|---|
|
18-20 |
1.72 |
1.22 |
|
21-23 |
2.62 |
1.61 |
|
24-26 |
2.54 |
1.71 |
|
27-29 |
2.13 |
|
|
30-32 |
1.77 |
|
|
33-35 |
1.34 |
|
|
36-38 |
1.06 |
The eras are different, as are the players and quality of team.
The comparison of Gretzky to McDavid benefits us because we see both men spiking in their age-21 seasons and driving elite production through the next six seasons.
McDavid is just starting the age 27-29 portion of his career, and Gretzky’s scoring at that age does suggest a downturn in production is possible. There were other forces at play, including a trade to Los Angeles and injuries.
It’s fair to suggest a lower points per game total for McDavid over the next three seasons (including this one) is likely, based on Gretzky’s career.
McDavid is a different player, and this is a different era. It’s possible though that we have seen the peak of his brilliant career and that peak is behind us.
Bottom line
McDavid is at his peak, or close enough to perform at a level we associate with his top-drawer performances of the past.
He’s entering a period of his career when the greatest player in history (Gretzky) began to fade from his peak-level production.
After Gretzky turned 27 (McDavid’s current age), he won three Art Ross trophies. His final win came at 32.
McDavid has five scoring championships and should be considered a lock to win more. He trails Gretzky by five, and that may be a bridge too far at this point in his career.
As always, betting against McDavid is a bad idea.
A reasonable guess? Three more Art Ross trophies, running his total to eight. That would put him second all-time.
He might win more if he increased his shooting, but his instincts are more passer than shooter.
(Photo: Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
