How the Bills could contain Bo Nix and break through Denver's defense

After five straight years of playoff exits before the Super Bowl, the Buffalo Bills are back in the postseason in 2024 with perhaps their best chance of advancing there under head coach Sean McDermott. It begins Sunday afternoon as the No. 2 Bills host the No. 7 Broncos in the AFC Wild Card round.

With a win, the Bills will play host to either the No. 3 Ravens, the No. 4 Texans or the No. 5 Chargers the following weekend, with a trip to the AFC Championship on the line. But they’ll have to get through the upstart Broncos, who have impressed the league through their defensive efforts this season.

How do these two teams match up, and what else stands out from a Bills perspective? Here is our wild-card notebook.

Can McDermott figure out Bo Nix?

When the Broncos arrive to play the Bills on Sunday, the lingering memory from Week 18 is that rookie quarterback Bo Nix led them to a blowout 38-0 victory over the Chiefs backups. There are two different things at play here, as well. While the Bills have been outstanding against inexperienced quarterbacks since Sean McDermott arrived in 2017, their defense has been a massive question mark over the last two months of the 2024 season. Nix, with how he’s played at times this year, has a good enough reputation to potentially buck the McDermott trend against rookie quarterbacks. However, when you dive deeper into the splits from Nix’s game this year, there are some interesting takeaways. And some even play into the Bills’ hands.

The Bills’ defense usually has a handful of core philosophies. They are a heavy zone team, they primarily only rush four defenders per play and often rank near the bottom of the league in blitz percentage and they strive to keep everything underneath to make the tackle short of the first-down marker to get off the field. It is not a high-risk, high-reward unit most weeks. In 2024, the Bills’ three most frequently used coverages were, in order, Cover-3, Cover-2 and Cover-1. They used Cover-4 the fourth-most. The normal belief is to just pressure the heck out of a young quarterback and nerve him into making errors. But is that true of Nix?

With the help of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus, we’re able to isolate specific coverages and how Nix has performed against each of them. It’s also interesting to see how the rookie quarterback has done against the blitz in those specific coverages. Let’s first start with his numbers against those defenses when a blitz is attached.

Against the Bills’ three most-used coverages, Nix’s yards per attempt is nearing eight and above when teams blitz — which is a great mark, considering Lamar Jackson led the NFL at 8.8 yards per attempt. Before making any conclusions, let’s compare those to when Nix is not blitzed on those specific coverages.

As you can see, despite being a young quarterback, Nix actually saw his yards per attempt go down dramatically against all four coverages when teams rushed four or fewer players at him. The highest of those four was against Cover-2, at 7.6 yards, but that’s almost a full two-yard decrease from when teams blitz. The other three coverages are all 6.5 yards per attempt and under.

In most cases, his air yards per attempt also went down. The lone exception was against Cover-1, where his air yards per attempt rose from 9.9 yards against the blitz to 11.7 yards when teams don’t blitz. It’s likely a byproduct of having more time, along with the single high safety look encouraging more deep throws down the field. Despite that higher air yards per target mark, his yards per attempt plummeted against that defense to 6.5, meaning many of those attempts fell incomplete. Against the other three coverages, his air yards per attempt were all under seven, and against Cover-4, he was especially prone to check down, averaging only 4.7 air yards per attempt.

While Nix is impressive in certain areas, where he’s weakest might just play into the Bills’ hands and what they like to do best. If they can encourage Nix to check it down by playing to their responsibilities in coverage, as he’s prone to do, the Bills could limit the Broncos’ passing offense.

I would expect a heavy emphasis on containing the pocket from their edge rushers, considering Nix is a threat to gain yards and first downs on the ground. However, I wouldn’t rule out the notion of the Bills completely turning away from the blitz. If they can time it well, a very clear part of Nix’s metrics has struggled through the year. Against Cover-0, which is usually an all-out blitz, Nix has averaged a pitiful 3.6 yards per attempt. If the Bills can disguise their coverages and blitz well enough in those few moments, the defense could have a better-than-expected afternoon based on the data.

How to attack the Broncos defense?

When these two teams meet, one of the top draws of the matchup will be watching the Bills’ offense work against the Broncos’ defense. The Bills have one of the most explosive, well-rounded offenses in the league. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a pressure-heavy defensive scheme that has led to great results all year. Two strengths will be squaring off against one another to see which unit is the best. Specifically, the Broncos’ defensive line, which is the strongest overall group of their team, working against the Bills offensive line, which has been one of the best in the NFL this year, could be where the game gets decided. That offensive line of the Bills gives them as good a shot as any to limit the Broncos’ overall effectiveness in pressuring the opposition.

If there are two main things to know about the Broncos’ defense, it’s that they blitzed at the fourth-highest rate among NFL teams this year and that they’ve played man coverage at the seventh-highest rate. Those two principles often go hand in hand. They’re empowered to do so because they have one of the top cover cornerbacks in the league, Patrick Surtain II, and a suitable second cornerback, Riley Moss. But while Surtain is a strength of the defense, the Broncos have some weaknesses to attack in man coverage.

Josh Allen has been outstanding against man coverage for much of his career. But along with him come a handful of man-coverage busters that can give them a leg up. The one that springs to mind the most, who is guaranteed to be in the most significant role of this group, is slot receiver Khalil Shakir. Broncos nickel corner Ja’Quan McMillan is a good spot to attack due to the strength at the other cornerback positions, whether it’s in man or zone coverage. The other two potential threats have a smaller role.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid has been a favorite of Allen’s when facing man coverage, which allows Kincaid’s athletic gifts and receiving acumen to shine. The trouble is, since Kincaid returned from a multi-week absence because of a knee injury, the Bills haven’t played him over 50 percent of their offensive snaps in any of those three games. But that could jump up in the postseason, specifically in this matchup. Working against Cincinnati tight end Mike Gesicki in Week 17, the Broncos showed they would stay in nickel against 12 personnel. That’s a potential mismatch, pitting Kincaid against McMillan. Kincaid would be favored against either of their safeties or linebackers in a man coverage situation, as well. The other player to keep an eye on is Ty Johnson. He is their clear third down back, and should he get matched up on one of the Broncos’ two linebackers in man coverage, that’s a potential big play waiting to happen.

The Codrington conundrum

The Bills are coming into the contest with a supremely healthy roster, with all their starters getting the ‘full participation’ tag through Thursday’s practice. The only player dealing with an injury is return specialist Brandon Codrington, and because it’s a hamstring injury, it puts his availability on Sunday into question. Codrington practiced on a limited basis Thursday, but if the portion open to the media was any indication, he didn’t do much. He took a few reps early and did not partake in any positional drills the rest of the time the media could see the session. Hamstring injuries are also tricky, especially for a player who relies on explosiveness to start from a dead-stop as return specialists do. If Codrington can’t play, it begs the question, who returns kickoffs and punts?

Kickoff returns are easy for the Bills because they’ve voluntarily gone through a game without Codrington returning kickoffs within the last month. Instead, the Bills used the duo of running backs — Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, even with Codrington active. That would be the likeliest outcome should Codrington not play. On punt returns it’s a bit more difficult because the Bills haven’t used anyone other than Codrington. Additionally, his main two competitors during the summer, K.J. Hamler and Daequan Hardy, are on the practice squad. Calling up someone from the practice squad would make the Bills lose a number at a different position for someone who would be a variable in that role, without any other function than that role. I wouldn’t expect them to entrust that playoff role to just anyone. If there’s one person that stands out, it’s Shakir. In his first two seasons, Shakir gave the Bills reps as the punt returner in three separate games. He’s sure-handed, and given his yards-after-catch ability, he can bounce off contact. There isn’t another obvious option on the 53-man roster besides him.

Projected inactives: QB Mike White (emergency 3rd QB), OL Tylan Grable, DL Quinton Jefferson, CB Kaiir Elam, PR/KR Brandon Codrington

Prediction: Bills 35, Broncos 17

The Broncos are a good first challenge for the Bills on their playoff path, but one that sways to the Bills in a few different areas. Nix is an impressive rookie quarterback, given his decision-making and how well he plays against the blitz, but some of his deficiencies may play into the hands of the Bills and how they structure their defense. That, plus the Broncos’ inconsistent rushing attack, can put the Bills defense in a good enough position to get some stops.

On offense, especially if the Broncos come into the game blitzing Josh Allen and playing man coverage at a high rate, it raises the ceiling of the Bills’ offensive output this week. The Broncos have great defensive numbers this season, though their strengths do not correlate with the Bills’ weaknesses. Allen is excellent against man coverage, and the Bills’ offensive line has stopped some potent defensive lines this year. For those reasons, I think the Bills can put up better-than-expected scoring numbers, given the reputation of the Broncos defense.

Ultimately, I think there may be a feeling-out process early for the Bills offense, but they’ve got enough going for them in this matchup to put ample points on the board. And on defense, the Bills’ primary weakness — their run-stuffing — is up against a Broncos team that hasn’t run the ball well for most of the year. I think the Bills can build a healthy lead and ride it to a victory and their fifth straight trip to the AFC divisional round.

(Top photo of Josh Allen: Nic Antaya / Getty Images)