CLEVELAND — This was the way it always had to end: Iowa versus South Carolina. Caitlin Clark’s final chance at a national title against the undefeated Gamecocks, a rematch of the epic 2023 Final Four clash that catapulted Clark into superstardom.
South Carolina once again enters as the No. 1 overall seed, unbeaten this season and attempting to complete the 10th undefeated campaign in NCAA women’s history. Just like in 2022-23, the Gamecocks boast the best defensive rating in the country, per Her Hoop Stats, and the Hawkeyes have the best offense. The country’s deepest team faces the national player of the year for all the marbles.
Looking ahead to Sunday’s title game, it’s instructive to think back to last year’s contest. South Carolina took away Clark’s playmaking. The Gamecocks defenders stayed glued to Iowa’s shooters to avoid giving up a high volume of 3-pointers. That left the middle of the floor open, however, for Clark drives and pick-and-roll with Monika Czinano, and that two-player game could not be stopped. Without a one-on-one defender who could contain Clark, South Carolina ultimately needed to send help, but had already schemed not to.
The perimeter rotation has almost completely overhauled for the Gamecocks. Raven Johnson, the lone returner, is stronger and more physical at the point of attack. If she isn’t the first option on Clark, it will be Bree Hall, who smothered Aziaha James in South Carolina’s victory over NC State on Friday. Hall is agile and mobile while also possessing the requisite size to bother Clark.
What West Virginia proved, and what UConn was able to confirm, is that pressuring the ball can be an effective strategy against Clark and the Hawkeyes. Particularly without Molly Davis in the lineup, Iowa doesn’t have many sure-handed ballhandlers. In fact, her handle is probably the weakest part of Clark’s game. Speeding up their decision-making and cutting off Clark’s passing angles disrupts the Hawkeyes’ rhythm and forces them to rely on Clark’s individual brilliance. She’s obviously capable of hitting difficult shots to counter such a strategy, but the margin of error for Iowa is slimmer.
Whew lord the Huskies are playing defense
Nika Muhl is putting on a masterclass in denial and mirroring pic.twitter.com/G80Mxkcdrl
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) April 6, 2024
Johnson is capable of getting into the space of opposing point guards, as she did with Saniya Rivers. If she and Hall can switch off that matchup, that will ease the burden.
Clark created space in last season’s meeting by calling on Czinano to set screens for her. Hannah Stuelke doesn’t make the same contact on her screens, and she doesn’t have the advanced footwork (which is fair, since she’s a sophomore and Czinano was a fifth-year senior). However, Stuelke does roll hard to the basket and make herself available for pocket passes and dump-offs. She’ll need to be decisive in the lane against the length of Kamilla Cardoso and Ashlyn Watkins.
Ashlyn Watkins with the block! pic.twitter.com/9omTFitotf
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) April 5, 2024
That’s where the biggest problem presents itself for Iowa. Even if the Iowa guards break through the ball pressure and move off of the ball – Sydney Affolter in particular had some nice cuts against UConn – South Carolina’s interior defense is on another level. Cardoso and Watkins have the mobility to come up to the level of the screen and stay with Clark on a drive; even if they fall behind her, they have the length to recover to block her shot. Their speed at the frontcourt positions makes it possible for the Gamecocks to defend screening actions two-on-two. As such, Clark will have to sink some jumpers early to keep the defense honest and open up some space in the middle.
On the other end of the court, Iowa was willing to concede 3-pointers against UConn, knowing it isn’t in the Huskies’ nature to shoot a high volume from distance. The Hawkeyes will likely sell out to protect the paint against South Carolina as well; even though the Gamecocks shoot at a high clip from 3-point range, their inclination – like UConn — is to work the ball inside. Iowa will have to defend closer to the basket as well in order to rebound. South Carolina is an outstanding offensive rebounding team and demoralizes opponents with second-chance points. The Hawkeyes have to limit the Gamecocks to one-shot possessions, even if that means sucking their defense into the paint.
Another key for Iowa will be limiting Kamilla Cardoso’s touches. Cardoso was unstoppable against NC State, as her size was a trump card even against the 6-foot-5 River Baldwin. When Cardoso gets a deep seal, there’s nothing to be done. She will turn and finish over the defense, and if she misses, she’ll collect her own offensive rebound. The best post defense for the Hawkeyes will be preventing the ball from getting to Cardoso altogether. Stuelke will likely try to front Cardoso in the paint to deflect entry passes, but the Iowa guards have to keep high hands and deter the entries altogether. There is no one on the Hawkeyes roster who has a prayer of defending Cardoso individually, and if they send help, she will quickly and decisively move it to an open player.
Iowa’s offense will likely be its best defense. The Hawkeyes need to score efficiently to keep South Carolina out of transition. They averaged 1.04 points per possession in the 2023 matchup and will need a similar number to pull off the win Sunday.
The Gamecocks will lean on their depth, as they have all season. They played the earlier game Friday and didn’t need their starters for much of the fourth quarter, so they’ll have an additional rest advantage. Either Te-Hina Paopao or Tessa Johnson will be able to bend the defense with their pull-up shooting. MiLaysia Fulwiley will make a highlight-worthy finish in transition. They’ll have options if their preferred method of attack doesn’t work at first.
Both Iowa and South Carolina were expected to take steps back in 2023-24 after the graduations of key players. Instead, they survived until the final day of the season. The Hawkeyes leaned into their speed and tenacity, and the Gamecocks relied on the evolution of their bench, and each had enough individual star power to take over in times of stress. Although the outlines of this matchup look very similar to a year ago, both teams have grown significantly in the interim, changing the points of emphasis. It should still be compelling theater.
(Photos of Kamilla Cardoso and Hannah Stuelke: Steph Chambers / Getty Images, Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
