ANN ARBOR, Mich. — There’s a lot to discuss from No. 9 Michigan’s 30-10 victory against Fresno State. Let’s start at the end, with two drives that showed the best of Michigan’s offense and defense.
1. Michigan’s offense didn’t have a great day. The Wolverines finished with 269 yards, averaged 4.4 yards per play and had only two gains longer than 15 yards. When the Wolverines look for things to build on, they’re going to point to the seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter that resembled vintage Michigan drives from the recent past.
Michigan needed that drive for a host of reasons. The Wolverines needed it on the scoreboard, as Fresno State had just scored a touchdown to pull within 16-10. The offensive line needed to show it could line up and move people. The running backs needed to show they could break off chunks of yardage after struggling to find open space for most of the game. And Michigan needed some proof of concept with the quarterback system it’s trying to implement with Davis Warren and Alex Orji.
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2. First, the offensive line. Sherrone Moore noted after the game that the offensive line often takes longer to mesh than other units, and as the former O-line coach, he would know. Even last year, when Michigan had two elite guards with years of experience, the Wolverines didn’t play their best until a month or so into the season.
With five new starters, this year’s group will need at least that long. The interior linemen — left guard Josh Priebe, center Dominick Giudice and right guard Giovanni El-Hadi — had some rough patches in the first half, including one glaring breakdown in pass protection. Michigan was one block away from springing a big run on a few occasions, and it took until the fourth quarter for the line to start generating consistent push.
“It’s going to take time for them to jell,” Moore said. “They needed that last drive to get that feel and feel what it’s like to be together and grind through the game.”
3. Next, the running backs. Donovan Edwards opened the long touchdown drive with two solid runs to set up third-and-short, and Kalel Mullings took it from there. Mullings carried three times for 42 yards on that drive, including runs of 21 and 15 yards. For the first time all night, Fresno State’s defense looked tired.
Edwards is the back who’s going to run away from defenders. Mullings is the back who’s going to run through them. Michigan needs both, but especially early on, Mullings’ ability to churn out yards after contact will be valuable. Mullings is a load to bring down at 233 pounds and doesn’t need much of a crease to hit the second level of the defense.
“In the fourth quarter, on that drive, it didn’t seem like guys wanted to tackle as much as they did earlier,” Mulling said. “We were able to take advantage of that and score. What was going through my mind was just continuing to throw those gut punches, continuing to soften up the defense.”
Kalel Mullings had 92 of Michigan’s 148 rushing yards Saturday. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)
4. In a quarterback competition without a clear favorite, I and many others assumed Orji’s upside would be enough to eventually win him the job. It didn’t work out that way. When word began to filter out that Warren was in line to start, I assumed Orji would at least get a series or two to run the offense. That didn’t happen, either.
Based on what we saw Saturday, Warren is Michigan’s primary quarterback and Orji is basically what he was last year: a running QB who can give the defense a different look. If Michigan saw him as more than that, I have to think he would have gotten more snaps Saturday night. Is that a recipe for success? Again, you have to look at the final drive for evidence.
Orji entered on a third-and-short and pulled the ball for a 6-yard gain. Simple, yet effective. I’m guessing Michigan has more wrinkles in the quarterback run game than it showed Saturday night, and the Wolverines will need all of them next week against Texas. The key will be to create enough deception with Orji that the defense doesn’t know what’s coming every time he’s in the game.
5. The lack of explosive plays in the passing game wasn’t all on Warren. His wide receivers didn’t give him a lot of help. On one play, Warren threw a nice ball down the sideline to Tyler Morris, who had a step on his defender. That play probably would have been a completion if Morris had kept running full speed, but he appeared to misjudge the ball and let it sail over his hands.
Warren’s interception wasn’t solely on the quarterback, either. After a nice punt return from Morris, Michigan decided to take a play-action shot on first down. The ball was underthrown, which allowed Cameron Lockridge to undercut Fredrick Moore and intercept it. But if Moore had made a better adjustment to the ball in the air, it could have been a contested play instead of an easy pick.
“You’ve got to be able to play defense, too,” Sherrone Moore said. “You’ve got to go get the ball on the post.”
6. The lack of reliable downfield receiving threats outside of Colston Loveland could be a problem. Michigan was able to get the ball to Morris and Semaj Morgan on a few quick passes, but Kendrick Bell was the only other wide receiver who caught a pass. Amorion Walker was a non-factor, as was C.J. Charleston. Exploiting mismatches with Loveland was the only reliable way Michigan found to move the ball through the air.
You can bet future opponents will try to take Loveland out of the game and force Michigan’s wide receivers to win one-on-one matchups. That group will need to show more than it did Saturday night if Warren is going to have a chance to succeed. Even without a lot of help from his wide receivers, Warren was able to connect with Loveland eight times for 87 yards, including the 18-yard touchdown to cap Michigan’s fourth-quarter drive.
“That last drive, that was Michigan football right there,” Warren said.
7. Saturday’s performance confirmed something we already knew about Michigan: The Wolverines will need to lean on their defense. That group gave up a few more big plays than we’re used to seeing in Wink Martindale’s debut as defensive coordinator, but none of it was overly concerning, at least not to me.
I have zero worries about Will Johnson, who got beat a couple of times before his game-changing pick six in the fourth quarter. Two of Fresno State’s big plays came against Myles Pollard and Ja’Den McBurrows, defensive backs who are lower on the depth chart. It felt to me like Michigan wanted to test out its depth before the Texas game, and I’d expect Martindale to tighten up the rotation next week.
8. It’s rare for Michigan’s defense to break out the Turnover Buffs three times on one drive, but that’s what happened in the fourth quarter. The first time, officials overturned would-be interception from Quinten Johnson, ruling that the ball hit the turf.
On the next play, Mikey Keene sailed a pass into the arms of Makari Paige. The interception was nullified by a roughing-the-passer call on TJ Guy, who ran right by Keene and then gave him a light shove in the back after he released the ball. It was a debatable call, but Guy also could have had a sack if he hadn’t overrun the play.
In all, Michigan’s defense committed four penalties on the drive: the roughing call and a later face mask on Guy, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Jaishawn Barham after Paige’s interception and a celebration penalty on Will Johnson after his 86-yard pick six. None of it hurt the Wolverines on Saturday, but we aren’t used to seeing those lapses in discipline from Michigan.
Seal it with an 86-yard Pick-6 🙌
Rock the Turnover Buffs 😎#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/gBp7PzMwqd— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 1, 2024
9. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Dominic Zvada, the transfer from Arkansas State who connected on field goals of 45, 53 and 55 yards. With an offense that may struggle to find the end zone, having a kicker who can put the ball through the uprights is a must. It appears Michigan found another one in Zvada, who can stretch his range to 60-plus if needed.
“It’s fun to watch him kick the ball and know that once we get into his range we’re guaranteed points,” Warren said.
10. If Michigan weren’t playing Texas in Week 2, it would be easy to cut the Wolverines some slack for a choppy first game. Beating a good Mountain West team by 20 points is hardly a disaster, after all. But Saturday’s game was always going to be viewed through the prism of what’s coming next, and in that sense, Michigan has valid reasons for concern.
Michigan’s personnel at quarterback and wide receiver isn’t close to what the Wolverines will see from Texas, Oregon or Ohio State. For that reason, it’s tempting to put Michigan’s ceiling at eight or nine wins. I would revise my projection downward based on what we saw Saturday night, but I’m not quite ready to cross Michigan off the list of College Football Playoff contenders. Per The Athletic’s model, Michigan has a 30 percent chance to make the CFP, putting it just on the wrong side of the bubble for now.
I’m going to give Moore and Kirk Campbell the benefit of the doubt and assume there’s a bigger plan for the offense than what we saw against Fresno State. Whatever it is, Michigan will need to put it all together in a hurry. Otherwise, the Texas game could produce the kind of pain that Michigan hasn’t experienced in a long time.
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(Top photo of Davis Warren: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
