NFL free agency is upon us, and we are about to find out exactly how “all-in” New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas will be this time around. Douglas has been aggressive in the past, but not necessarily all-out.
Most years, Douglas will sign one or two players to relatively big contracts — Corey Davis and Carl Lawson in 2021, Laken Tomlinson and D.J. Reed in 2022, Allen Lazard in 2023 — and otherwise try to find bargains at positions of need. Expect a similar approach this year.
The Jets know their quarterback. They’re mostly set on defense, though they’ll need to add a safety and defensive tackle or two.
But the biggest needs are on offense, much covered already to this point:
Offensive line. Wide receiver. Backup quarterback.
We’ve addressed what the Jets can and/or should do about the offensive line, as well as at backup quarterback.
But ahead of the start of free agency — it begins Wednesday, though the legal tampering window opens Monday — this felt like a good time to lay out what the Jets can do at wide receiver and what they should do.
Let’s set the table.
What they have
The Jets have Garrett Wilson. For years, the Jets failed to adequately address the wide receiver position in the draft. Stephen Hill, Jalen Saunders, Shaquelle Evans, Devin Smith, ArDarius Stewart, Chad Hansen, Denzel Mims and Elijah Moore were all drafted in the first four rounds in the 15-year stretch from 2006-2021. None of them worked out.
Then, Douglas drafted a star, the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022 who has been limited by his surroundings and held back from reaching his massive potential by poor play-calling, bad quarterback play and an inconsistent supporting cast. Wilson has already played with seven different quarterbacks. That includes Aaron Rodgers, who tore his Achilles after four plays, and former practice squad quarterback Chris Streveler.
Wilson ranked fifth in 2023 in ESPN’s “open score” metric, which measures how open each receiver gets, whether they’re thrown the ball or not. He ranks 12th in the last two seasons combined. Per TruMedia, Jets quarterbacks have an off-target percentage of 16.5 when throwing to Wilson. For reference: The Browns had the worst off-target percentage last season at 15.7.
Considering the limitations around him, it’s remarkable Wilson has managed back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and 178 catches for 2,145 yards and seven touchdowns overall in 34 games. All other Jets wide receivers combined in those two seasons: 163 catches for 2,101 yards and six touchdowns.
Wilson needs some help.
“To find another threat so teams can’t just go off and double-team Garrett will be very important,” coach Robert Saleh said after the season.
“We need to add more receiver help,” Rodgers said.
Wilson tried to be kind.
“We’ve got some great young guys, we’ve got some great vets,” he said. “I think another infusion of someone that brought different things to the table that gives the defense something to worry about, that would be beneficial to everyone, not just me.”
Last year, the Jets gave Lazard a $44 million contract, and it’s looking like one of the worst signings in franchise history. He finished 2023 with 23 catches for 311 yards, one touchdown and five drops, per PFF. He ranked 145th (of 153 eligible pass catchers) in open score.
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He will remain on the Jets’ roster, though he doesn’t really factor into their decision-making this offseason. He’ll be a backup in 2024.
The Jets bring back two undrafted rookies in Xavier Gipson (21 catches for 229 yards) and Jason Brownlee (55 yards, one touchdown) they’re high on, but neither should be banked on to become full-time players.
Randall Cobb is unlikely to return.
Cap situation
The Jets cut guard Laken Tomlinson and tight end C.J. Uzomah, which leaves them at around $25 million in cap space. They’ll likely restructure a few contracts — John Franklin-Myers, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley are top candidates for that — to clear more cap, too.
They’ll have enough to make a splash. But should they overspend?
Possible plans
Most years, the team that spends the most money in free agency at wide receiver winds up regretting it. The most obvious case was in 2021, when the Giants paid $72 million for Kenny Golladay, which turned into an utter disaster. Recent free agency history indicates that if a wide receiver who looks like a Pro Bowl-caliber player actually becomes available, there’s probably a good reason why.
The top wide receiver available in free agency this year is Calvin Ridley, who is coming off a 76-catch, 1,016-yard, eight-touchdown season with the Jaguars. Ridley’s talent is undeniable, but the history of free agency is something to keep in mind.
I’m not sure if Douglas will go all-out and pay Ridley $18 million per season, but it can’t be ruled out. There are many paths Douglas can take. I decided to run through all the possible routes the Jets can go at wide receiver — I think they need more than one, though they don’t necessarily have to add all of them in free agency — and then pick the one I would do.
Calvin Ridley may command $18 million-plus per season in free agency. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)
The Calvin Ridley plan
PFF projects $18.5 million per season for Ridley, who will have a significant market. And that’s something to keep in mind: The player has to want to sign with the Jets more than another team offering him a similar contract. And there are some good-to-great teams — the Chiefs, Lions, Packers, Ravens, Colts — with a need at wide receiver. I don’t know if any of those teams would overpay for a free-agent wideout, but it’s something worth remembering. He could also just re-sign with the Jaguars.
I don’t think the Jets will pay multiple players a contract this significant, so they’d essentially be paying a top-market wide receiver over a top-market offensive lineman, which should not be the priority.
The slightly less expensive free agency plan
The Jets can still add a high-quality wide receiver for cheaper than it would cost to sign Ridley. Cardinals receiver Marquise Brown will be the next-best wideout to hit the market and PFF projects him to earn $12 million over one year. He’s still only 26 and is highly explosive and productive … when healthy. He’s missed eight games the last two years.
Another potential option at this level: Chargers receiver Mike Williams. Los Angeles will likely move on from him — cutting Williams would save $20 million in cap space. Williams is also injury-prone and coming off a torn ACL. But if healthy, he feels like a perfect complement to Wilson. He’s 6-foot-4 and one of the best deep threats in the league.
The go-all-out in a trade plan
I would say this is the most unlikely of all the plans but worth mentioning. There have been some rumors of unrest in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson, though it would take a quarterback-trade-level package in order to acquire the best wide receiver in the NFL.
If the Raiders budged on Davante Adams’ availability, that would obviously be worth exploring, too.
The less-expensive trade plan
There should be some non-star-level wide receivers available in potential trades. I’m not so sure the Broncos will actually trade Courtland Sutton but he’s an intriguing option if available, better as a No. 2 than a No. 1. He had 772 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. Sutton would carry a reasonable $13 million cap hit. Fellow Bronco Jerry Jeudy is another option as a talented 24-year-old who has had a bumpy start to his career.
Steelers wideout Diontae Johnson (717 yards, five touchdowns in 13 games) might want out of Pittsburgh. The Panthers might be willing to move off veteran Adam Thielen (103 catches, 1,014 yards and four touchdowns).
If the Chargers’ Keenan Allen were actually available, he’d be a top target, too — though I don’t get the sense he is available.
The convince Corey Davis to return plan
The Jets initially considered cutting Davis last year for cap space, then changed their mind. He was beloved by coaches and teammates, and fans might have realized they underrated him after spending a season watching Lazard as his replacement. Davis retired during training camp and some in the organization tried at points to convince him to return, though nothing ever came of it.
I don’t know what a contract would look like — definitely less than what he was due in 2023 initially — but if Davis were willing to return, the Jets would welcome him back with open arms.
They would still have to add another receiver in this scenario, but at least they would have a solid player who can help.
The cost-effective free agency plan
In this plan, the Jets sign one or two wide receivers below the top of the market and/or draft one to pair with a free agent.
The players of this caliber who come to mind …
• Tyler Boyd: Solid, reliable slot receiver. PFF projects $8.25 million per season.
• Gabe Davis: Fast, explosive, young (25), inconsistent. Had 746 yards, seven touchdowns. PFF projects $12 million for one year.
• Darnell Mooney: Speedy, young (26), coming off a bad year but had 1,055 yards in 2021. PFF projects $9 million for one year.
• Odell Beckham Jr.: Jets wanted him last year, Ravens outbid. Played better than his numbers (565 yards, three touchdowns) but risky target. PFF projects $7 million for one year.
• Curtis Samuel: Gadget player and slot receiver. More of a No. 3 than No. 2. PFF projects $8.5 million per year.
• Kendrick Bourne: Coming off torn ACL, but should be ready for Week 1. Versatile and a solid run blocker. PFF projects $7 million per season.
• Michael Thomas: Injury-prone, past his prime but maybe can help in a reduced role. PFF projects $6 million for one year.
• Josh Reynolds: Intriguing option as a No. 3 receiver. Reliable on third down. PFF projects $5.25 million per year.
• Noah Brown: Showed some flashes with C.J. Stroud. Another No. 3 receiver option. PFF projects $3.5 million per year.
The NFL Draft plan
The expectation is that the Jets will draft an offensive tackle with the 10th pick — and that’s a reasonable expectation. But if LSU’s Malik Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze dropped to No. 10 and the Jets haven’t yet addressed their No. 2 receiver spot, that would be a tempting proposition. Both look like future stars.
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Rodgers’ preference is probably to focus on adding veterans capable of handling everything he requires of his receivers, but this level of talent is hard to pass up. If not Round 1, the Jets also can (and should) explore adding a wide receiver in Round 3 or Round 4, where some studs have been unearthed in recent years.
What I would do
Step 1: Sign Tyler Boyd.
Step 2: Draft a wide receiver in Round 3.
Why?
Well, I don’t think the Jets actually need to overspend adding an upgrade at wide receiver. That itch to upgrade the position is why they overpaid Lazard last year and arguably overpaid Davis in 2021, too. The Jets have a star receiver in Wilson. It is much more important for Douglas to invest in rebuilding the offensive line than to finding another star wide receiver.
Just look at Rodgers in Green Bay: He had Davante Adams, but the rest of the receivers usually weren’t star-caliber. He made them look better.
Boyd fits the bill. He has been one of the NFL’s best, most reliable and productive slot receivers over the last six years. His ranking in slot receiving yards since 2018: 10th in 2023, fifth in 2022 and third in 2018-21. He put up more than 1,000 yards in 2018 and 2019, though that was before Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins joined the Bengals. Boyd has still been solid over the last four years, averaging 68 catches for 775 yards and four touchdowns. He has six drops on 367 targets over the last four years, or a 1.6 drop percentage.
Then, the Jets can turn to another outside receiver in the NFL Draft. If they address the offensive line in free agency, that can come in the first round — either at No. 10 (Odunze?) or with a trade back (Brian Thomas, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell). If not, they can surely grab a quality wideout in the third round (they don’t own a second). Some players drafted in Round 3 in recent years: Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin and Michael Gallup.
(Top photo: Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
