NASCAR Cup Series playoff outlook after Atlanta: Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney lead the field


HAMPTON, Ga. — The big patch of gray tape across the door covering a gaping hole offered a surefire indicator of a day gone wrong. The smile across Ryan Blaney’s face, however, said otherwise.

Blaney was enthused because his championship title defense took a big step forward in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series playoff opener at Atlanta Motor Speedway. That’s despite being caught in a multi-car accident that left the No. 12 Team Penske car battered and just short of a victory that would’ve automatically advanced the defending champion to the next playoff round.

Yet, Blaney’s positive vibes were more than warranted. He scored a stage win, placed second in another stage, pushed teammate Joey Logano to the race win and finished third himself. The strong afternoon vaulted Blaney into the series points lead — always important, but especially so in a round that many consider the toughest first round in playoff history.

“Really happy,” Blaney said. “This thing looks ugly, but really good finish. Proud of the effort by everybody.”

Certainly, Blaney would’ve loved to have the Atlanta win in his back pocket. But the grinding playoffs are all about the big picture, and his current position is a nice consolation prize.

He leaves Atlanta 45 points clear of the provisional cut line to move onto Round 2, a healthy margin that provides plenty of leeway should catastrophe strike in either of the next two races.

“I can’t really complain,” Blaney said. “I think it’s pretty much the most points you could score without winning. I’m sure we just scored a ton today. I’m just proud of the speed and effort by our group.”

Blaney isn’t the only one who should feel good about their prospects of moving forward in NASCAR’s postseason. Let’s assess where the field stands heading into next week’s race on the Watkins Glen road course followed by the Round 1 elimination race at Bristol.


Joey Logano (advanced): The only one happier than Blaney leaving Atlanta is his teammate, whose spot in the next round is guaranteed. A great feeling for Logano, who last year was unexpectedly bounced in Round 1 for the first time in his career.

Christopher Bell (plus 40 points relative to transfer line): With playoff points he racked up through the regular season, Bell came into the playoffs in a strong position to avoid a first-round elimination. Leaving Atlanta with a fourth-place finish only further solidifies the likelihood Bell advances.

Tyler Reddick (plus 33 points): A pit road collision with Carson Hocevar couldn’t stunt Reddick’s hopes, as he rallied back to finish sixth. That allows him to maintain a sizable gap to the cut line heading into a pair of tracks where he should do well.

William Byron (plus 33 points): Sometimes a quiet, productive day is all you need in the early rounds. Such is the case with Byron, whose ninth-place finish further distanced himself from the cut line by 16 points. That’s a good points haul, made all the more significant heading to a Watkins Glen circuit where he’s the defending race winner.

Alex Bowman (plus 27 points): Considering the speculation around Bowman’s job status with Hendrick Motorsports, few drivers needed as strong a start to the playoffs as him. He accomplished that with a fifth-place finish on top of 16 additional stage points. The key is maintaining this upward trajectory through Watkins Glen and Bristol. Getting past Round 1 would be big.


A strong day at Atlanta Motor Speedway for Alex Bowman has him in position to secure a much-needed advancement to the next round. (Sean Gardner / Getty Images)

Austin Cindric (plus 27 points): Someone many deemed likely to have a quick exit, Cindric did exactly what he needed to do at Atlanta by accumulating 19 stage points and a 10th-place finish. Up next is a style of track where he often excels, which should provide further opportunity to distance himself from the bubble.

Chase Elliott (plus 24 points): Hard to quibble with eighth on a superspeedway, especially after a collision on pit road damaged the No. 9 car. Elliott will certainly take it.

Daniel Suárez (plus 22 points): The good news is that Suárez leaves Atlanta in solid shape. The bad news is he came oh so close to completing the Atlanta sweep, which would’ve erased all doubt about whether he advances.

Kyle Larson (plus 15 points): Larson’s situation is a prime example of why amassing playoff points during the regular season is so critical. Were it not for the 30 playoff points he has, he’d be double digits below the transfer line.

Denny Hamlin (plus two points): Lagging in the back and playing it safe backfired on Hamlin, as a relatively clean race (by Atlanta standards) didn’t allow him to capitalize on others’ misfortune. But despite a ho-hum result (24th), and a frustrating weekend all around, he remains on the right side of the bubble. With some good luck, he should advance — though thinking Hamlin will get some fortunate breaks seems to be asking a lot considering recent events.

Ty Gibbs (plus zero): A failed block dropped Gibbs out of the lead with four laps left, causing him to finish 17th. That result isn’t indicative of how well he otherwise performed Sunday. The plus is that he jumped from being last in the playoff standings to 12th, with two favorable tracks upcoming.

Brad Keselowski (minus 1 point): Drafting tracks are Keselowski’s forte, so finishing 19th feels like him leaving points on the table. Still, he only trails Gibbs by a single digit and with another one of his best tracks, Bristol, upcoming, he remains likely to advance. His little margin for error has to concern him, though.

Harrison Burton (minus 16 points): If Burton’s Cinderella run was to continue past Round 1, he needed a scenario at Atlanta where he collected a wealth of stage points, posted a strong overall finish and had numerous other playoff drivers experience problems. None of this happened. He scored zero stage points, finished 31st and was the fourth-lowest finisher among those playoff-eligible. Add it all up and it’s the kind of day that will almost surely lead to a first-round exit.

Martin Truex Jr. (minus 19 points): On one hand, Truex is 19 points down, has little momentum and has been saddled with a run of sour luck and underperformance. That’s worrisome. He’s also just 19 points behind, a deficit that can quickly be erased — provided the No. 19 team returns to its customary form. This is encouraging, though it’s a big if.

Chase Briscoe (minus 21 points): On Saturday, two crew chiefs told The Athletic they believed Chase Briscoe was ready to play the role of playoff spoiler. That may still be the chase, but to do so he’ll have to climb out of a 21-point hole that, depending on your perspective, may or may not place him in a must-win situation these next two races.

(Top photo of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)



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