BROOKLYN, Mich. — Five thoughts after the NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway …
1. Taking Stock
The knock on Tyler Reddick used to be, “He’s fast, but …”
He’s fast, but he doesn’t always put a complete race together.
He’s fast, but he makes a mistake that takes himself out of contention.
He’s fast, but he’s not consistent from week to week.
At 28, it’s possible Reddick hasn’t outgrown all of those concerns yet. If they’re in his rear-view mirror, they’re right on his back bumper.
But this summer, it’s undeniable Reddick has blossomed into the type of driver who now understands how to pair raw speed with top-level racecraft. And that’s a combination that often leads to NASCAR stardom.
Reddick won at Michigan on Monday without everything going perfectly. He had a bad restart and lost positions when the race resumed after a Sunday interruption. Later, his team had to spend extra time on pit road.
Yet Reddick was able to come back through the field without throwing away his race, and then won in double overtime despite not having the preferred restart lane compared to William Byron.
It was just the latest result in an impressive stretch. Since mid-May, Reddick has finished worse than eighth only once. He’s been no lower than sixth place in seven straight races. And he’s been a top-three finisher in five of the last six events.
Those numbers have vaulted him from sixth to first in the point standings, and he now holds a 10-point advantage in the regular-season championship with two races remaining.
“He’s got an unbelievable ability to drive a car,” said Denny Hamlin, both the co-owner of Reddick’s 23XI Racing car and one of his top competitors. “Now you’re seeing these finishes because he’s managing the races like a pro.”
Monday’s race at Michigan was points-leader Tyler Reddick’s second win of the season and fifth top-three finish in his last six events. (Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
Hamlin felt that was the biggest area of potential improvement for Reddick when 23XI lured the driver away from Richard Childress Racing with a year still left on Reddick’s contract to drive the No. 8 car. As a talent evaluator, Hamlin knew he couldn’t pass on the chance to get Reddick even if it would be a drawn-out process (which was later accelerated after RCR released him early).
As the old racing adage goes: It’s easier to pull back the reins on a fast driver than to get someone to go faster.
“Early in my career in the Cup Series, we’d have a really rough start, and I’d think, ‘I’ve got to win,’” Reddick said. “It cost us points because I’m more aggressive than I probably should be.
“Having a points mindset is good for me because I like to be more aggressive — probably more than I should be in a lot of situations.”
Reddick described his preferred approach as racing all out — 105 percent, as he put it — but has discovered the potential reward that comes with points racing “pulls me back a little bit.” It happened again at Michigan, where he realized his car was loose and stayed patient enough to allow the team a chance to fix it instead of stuffing it in the fence while trying to be a hero.
“My mindset is more thinking about (the regular-season title) moreso than my position and how do I pass the next guy,” he said. “… How aggressive I continue to be in certain moments has helped me along the way, but then there’s been other moments when knowing when to pull back — seeing another corner, another lap, letting that position go — has helped me in some other aspects.”
Whether that translates into a championship run remains to be seen, but Reddick will certainly be one of the most dangerous threats for the rest of the field if he continues to take what each race gives him.
2. Fastest Car Tracker
The tricky part of this regular-season exercise has been races where the true fastest car is very murky. Sometimes figuring it out has required a bit of an educated guess. But despite making it this far into the year, I’m finally stumped after Michigan.
Was it Reddick? Eh, maybe. But he was only seventh in average green-flag speed and didn’t even have the highest number of fastest laps run (Martin Truex Jr. did).
So was it Truex, who was fastest on the long runs in practice but later hit the wall to bring out the overtime-inducing caution? Perhaps, but why wasn’t he able to make more progress in getting to the lead after losing track position?
A case could have been made for Hamlin, Kyle Larson or Bubba Wallace — but all of those cars were involved in incidents that damaged their cars before we got the full picture (Larson led the most laps despite wrecking out of the race, for what it’s worth).
Given all that, we’ll give the tally to “Other Cars” this week since it didn’t seem Reddick was the clear fastest. But the actual fastest will be listed for the first time as “Unclear.”
Fastest Car Score: Other Cars 15, Fastest Cars 11.
Fastest Cars by Driver: Christopher Bell 6, Hamlin 4, Kyle Larson 4, Tyler Reddick 2, William Byron 2, Logano 2, Michael McDowell 1, Martin Truex Jr. 1, Todd Gilliland 1, Ty Gibbs 1, Shane van Gisbergen 1, Unclear 1.
3. Q&A
Each week in this space, we’ll pose one question and attempt to answer one from the past.
Q: Who will get the final playoff spots?
Bubble drivers Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain and Wallace were all involved in incidents during the Michigan race — and only Buescher was able to rebound for a good finish.
That puts Buescher 16 points above the cutoff line, while Chastain and Wallace are separated by just a single point for the final spot with two races to go.
Of course, a winning appeal for Austin Dillon on Wednesday could change the picture should his playoff eligibility get reinstated. Similarly, a new winner at Daytona on Saturday (which wouldn’t be a shock at all) could muddy everything.
But assuming Daytona and Darlington play out in a straight-up manner with no new winners and there are still two spots remaining for that bubble trio, who gets in?
Buescher won the Daytona summer race last year and had a great car at Darlington this spring. Barring a superspeedway wreck, he should be able to perform well enough with stage points and results to hang on over the next two weeks.
In that case, it comes down to a coin flip between Chastain and Wallace. Chastain would have been in a much stronger position had overtime not happened on Monday, as he finished 25th instead of 10th after getting spun.
If both Chastain and Wallace run comparatively well at Daytona, then it’s all about Darlington. Wallace has four straight top-10s there and Chastain has two, but infamously could have won the 2023 spring race before a high-profile incident that riled Hendrick Motorsports.
Given the overall speed of 23XI vs. Trackhouse, we’ll give the nod to Wallace. But this feels like a legitimate tossup, which makes these next couple weeks quite compelling.
A: Will Kevin Harvick win a race in his farewell season?
The answer to that question, which was posed here following last year’s Michigan race, was “No.” Harvick went his entire final season without a victory.
So now the question is: Will Truex do the same?
Truex certainly has a better chance to win than Harvick did a year ago. Stewart-Haas Racing was struggling as an organization at the end of Harvick’s career, whereas Joe Gibbs Racing is bringing some of the fastest cars to the track on a weekly basis.
And Truex has already had chances to win this season (like in the spring Richmond race, where he was en route to victory before a late caution). It just hasn’t happened, and now he only has 12 races remaining in his full-time Cup Series career.
“The last about two months have been pretty miserable for us,” he said. “We’ve had a lot of speed and not much to show for it overall. Just need to execute better and quit having mistakes.”
Where can Truex win? Almost anywhere, really — although three superspeedway races don’t help his cause (Truex is famously 0-for-82 on superspeedways in his career). But nine more races encompassing short tracks, road courses and intermediates all give Truex a chance to have one final moment of glory in victory lane before his Hall of Fame career wraps up.
4. NASquirks
It was alarming to see Corey LaJoie’s car flip over so easily on Monday, particularly since NASCAR has worked so hard to keep these 3,200-pound stock cars on the ground.
Yes, it’s good that drivers have not been seriously injured during flips (look at how relatively unscathed Ryan Preece was last year in one of the scariest wrecks we’ve ever seen). But still, these cars need to be kept on the ground for one main reason: The unpredictability of where they’re headed in the air.
COREY LAJOIE FLIPS AND SLIDES UPSIDE DOWN!#NASCAR | USA Network pic.twitter.com/Iyd3frqX5C
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) August 19, 2024
Once a driver is airborne, he no longer has control of the car. If that happens near a fence, the worst case could happen — and not just a driver being injured or killed, but whoever is on the other side of that barrier. The ultimate nightmare would be multiple fans being killed by an airborne car that hits the fence, which is why such a priority must be placed on solving these situations.
That said, this seemed to be a relatively rare incident in which a car blows over without any contact. Could the explanation be as simple as wind?
There were strong gusts at Michigan on Monday, and if LaJoie’s car — already at full speed — suddenly turned broadside into heavier-than-normal wind, could that help his car lift off?
A meteorologist posted data on X that theorized how it could have happened. Ultimately though, NASCAR’s engineers will have to investigate the blow-over to conclusively figure out what went wrong.
5. Five at No. 5
Our mini power rankings after Race No. 26/38 (including exhibitions):
1. Tyler Reddick (last time: 1): For all the reasons we laid out in Item No. 1, Reddick seems to have a good chance to close out the regular season in this spot. While it would be a surprise to see a 23XI car win over Hendrick or JGR, it’s increasingly possible.
2. Kyle Larson (last time: 4): Larson looked very fast before he made a mistake that took him out of the Michigan race — and perhaps the regular-season title chase at the same time.
3. Denny Hamlin (last time: 2): Another week where Hamlin had a great car but didn’t win, this time by a self-induced mistake. That has to be frustrating considering how much speed the No. 11 has had this season.
4. Ryan Blaney (last time: 3): Blaney wasn’t going to get a top-five finish in all likelihood, but contact on the last lap with Chase Elliott spoiled what was looking like a sure top-10.
5. Chase Elliott (last time: not ranked): If not for the late contact with Blaney, Elliott would have had his fourth straight top-10 finish. The No. 9 team still has a great chance to win the regular-season championship, too.
Dropped out: Christopher Bell.
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Tyler Reddick celebrating Monday’s win: Logan Riely / Getty Images)
