Everything you need to know about the East Region starts with Duke playing its first two games in nearby Raleigh, N.C., and whether freshman phenom Cooper Flagg will play effectively after an ankle injury in the ACC tournament.
But there is so much more to the East Region beyond the Blue Devils.
It’s possible they could face former two-time Duke captain and 1,000-point scorer Jeremy Roach, who averages 10.3 points per game at ninth-seeded Baylor. But first, the Bears must get past Mississippi State, which Chris Jans has guided to the NCAA Tournament in three consecutive seasons.
No team officially represents the dormant Pac-12, but two of its former members could face each other in the second round in Seattle. Fourth-seeded Arizona and fifth-seeded Oregon last met in a Pac-12 semifinal last year, which the Ducks claimed on their way to the tournament title.
The most incredible stylistic matchup could take place in the second round with No. 2 seed Alabama, which averages nearly 75 offensive possessions per 40 minutes (first nationally, according to KenPom), against No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s, which ranks 359th in that category. Wisconsin lost every regional advantage in heading to Denver despite its No. 3 seed. In the first round, the Badgers play No. 14 Montana, then could face sixth-seeded BYU in the second round. It must sting knowing No. 3 seeds Iowa State and Kentucky are playing in Milwaukee, located barely an hour away from Wisconsin’s campus.
Finally, six teams average at least 80 points a game, including national leader Alabama (91.1) and Duke (82.7), so expect some scoring — unless Saint Mary’s dictates the tempo.
Read on for a full rundown of the region.
1. Duke (31-3, 19-1 ACC)
Coach: Jon Scheyer (4-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Cooper Flagg (ACC Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +360
Sweet 16 projected chance: 87.3%
Final Four projected chance: 52.9%
It’s national title or bust for Duke. It almost always is with this program, but when you’ve been ranked as a top-two team on KenPom all season with the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft in Flagg, winning a championship is the expectation. Duke has one of the country’s premier defenses, with the likely National Player of the Year leading the way, and its role players fully embrace the job they are being asked to do. However, inexperience is a valid concern. Their two nonconference losses were due to a lack of execution down the stretch, with Flagg’s late turnover against Kentucky and a string of poor possessions late against Kansas. As good as Duke is, it will have to win games in crunch time. Can the Blue Devils do it? — Rob Dauster
2. Alabama (25-8, 13-5 SEC)
Coach: Nate Oats (10-7 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Mark Sears (First-team All-SEC)
BetMGM title odds: +1200
Sweet 16 projected chance: 59.0%
Final Four projected chance: 15.2%
The Crimson Tide exhaust opponents. The tournament requires quick turnarounds. Preparing to face them can be daunting for competitors unfamiliar with nonstop bombardments. Their mid-February lull raised concerns, but when the 3-pointers are falling, they can overwhelm any team in the country. They’re a superb offensive rebounding team and often attack the basket off the bounce. Underrated defensively due to the frenetic style, they slot inside the top 40 in effective field goal defense. You better have oxygen tanks at the ready when matched against Bama. — Brad Evans
3. Wisconsin (26-9, 13-7 Big Ten)
Coach: Greg Gard (6-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: John Tonje (First-team All-Big Ten)
BetMGM title odds: +5000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 51.7%
Final Four projected chance: 7.7%
This Wisconsin team is not your older brother’s shot clock-sucking version. The Badgers are a true dark horse to reach the Final Four. They protect the basketball, slam the door at the line and possess upperclassman leadership. This squad has the size and guard play to blow up brackets. John Blackwell is an outstanding bucket-getter, and Nolan Winter can plunge deadly outside daggers at times. And Tonje, the Missouri transfer, can score anywhere. — Brad Evans
John Tonje, a Missouri transfer, led Wisconsin to its most wins since 2017. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
4. Arizona (22-12, 14-6 Big 12)
Coach: Tommy Lloyd (4-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Caleb Love (First-team All-Big 12)
BetMGM title odds: +5000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 60.5%
Final Four projected chance: 6.6%
“Good but not great” is probably the best way to sum up Arizona in 2025. Its guards — Caleb Love, Jaden Bradley and Anthony Dell’Orso — are good enough to win a game or two, but I’m not sure the Wildcats are built for a deep run. Their bigs are capable of creating matchup problems, but they’re not even a top-four frontcourt in the Big 12. Carter Bryant is good for a newcomer, but he’s not among the top-10 freshmen in America. Arizona is unlikely to get upset in the first round, but is also just as unlikely to advance to the Elite Eight. — Rob Dauster
5. Oregon (24-9, 12-8 Big Ten)
Coach: Dana Altman (17-16 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Nate Bittle (Third-team All-Big Ten)
BetMGM title odds: +15000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 25.5%
Final Four projected chance: 1.5%
This isn’t Altman’s strongest product. Oregon did defeat Texas A&M and Alabama on a neutral court in November and improbably came back from a double-digit deficit at Wisconsin to upend the Badgers in late February. Still, the Ducks’ five-game losing streak midway through the conference slate is a reason for concern. Winning a game or two wouldn’t shock a soul, but defensive weaknesses and a plaguing case of alligator arms near the cylinder suggest that is the highest upside. — Brad Evans
6. BYU (24-9, 14-6 Big 12)
Coach: Kevin Young (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Richie Saunders (First-team All-Big 12)
BetMGM title odds: +6600
Sweet 16 projected chance: 23.4%
Final Four projected chance: 2.7%
Winners in nine of the last 10, the Cougars enter the tournament red-hot. Over 47 percent of their shots come from 3-point range. When owning the arc and playing average defense, they can compete with almost anyone. Their size, depth and overall offensive execution are attractive pluses. If NBA-bound point guard Egor Demin can play under control, BYU has the goods to reach the Sweet 16 for only the third time since 1981. — Brad Evans
7. Saint Mary’s (28-5, 17-1 WCC)
Coach: Randy Bennett (6-10 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Augustas Marciulionis (WCC Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +10000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 34.6%
Final Four projected chance: 7.1%
Saint Mary’s features positional size and senior leadership, but what stands out the most is its defense and rebounding. The Gaels are second only to Texas A&M in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing over 40 percent of their misses. They also don’t allow many offensive boards, ranking No. 1 in rebound margin per game. The defense is just as solid with its No. 7 efficiency ranking on KenPom thanks to senior center Mitchell Saxen, the WCC Defensive Player of the Year. — Sam Lance
8. Mississippi State (21-12, 8-10 SEC)
Coach: Chris Jans (1-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Josh Hubbard (Second-team All-SEC)
BetMGM title odds: +10000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 6.2%
Final Four projected chance: 1.2%
Jans’ junkyard dogs possess considerable size. They’re 6-foot-4 or taller at shooting guard, on the wing and across the frontline. It’s no shock they’re one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the field, generating a second chance on 34.4 percent of their possessions. RJ Melendez and KeShawn Murphy also steadily rack shots within 15 feet. Both are major reasons why MSU ranks in the top 80 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. Generally in control due to the crafty handles of Hubbard, the Bulldogs commit few turnovers. Conversely, they coax numerous mistakes, as evidenced by their No. 81 ranking in defensive turnover rate in the regular season. — Brad Evans
Josh Hubbard is the best player on a Mississippi State team aiming for its first tournament win since 2008. (Brandon Sumrall / Getty Images)
9. Baylor (19-14, 10-10 Big 12)
Coach: Scott Drew (20-11 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: VJ Edgecombe (Big 12 Freshman of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +20000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 6.4%
Final Four projected chance: 1.3%
Elite one-and-done talent has been a theme for Drew over the past few years, and this season is no exception. Baylor has one of the nation’s best NBA prospects in Edgecombe, a 6-foot-5 freshman who is a walking highlight reel. When playing good offensive teams, Baylor struggles. All but two of its losses (Tennessee and TCU) have come against teams in the top 25 of KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric. That could make them an easy out before the second weekend. — Sam Lance
10. Vanderbilt (20-12, 8-10 SEC)
Coach: Mark Byington (1-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jason Edwards (Third-team All-SEC)
BetMGM title odds: +20000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 5.4%
Final Four projected chance: 0.4%
Vanderbilt has offensive firepower. A top-25 offense, according to KenPom, the Commodores are capable of exploding thanks to the 6-foot-1 Edwards. He’s a streaky shooter with deep range who pairs perfectly with AJ Hoggard, a more physical point guard who has plenty of experience from four seasons with Michigan State. Tyler Nickel has made numerous clutch 3-pointers, and the combination of that trio of perimeter weapons with a pair of burly, undersized bigs has made Vandy dangerous. — Rob Dauster
11. VCU (28-6, 15-3 A-10)
Coach: Ryan Odom (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Max Shulga (Atlantic 10 Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +25000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 23.8%
Final Four projected chance: 2.8%
VCU’s guard play and defensive prowess scream that it’s a team that can upset a higher seed. We just haven’t seen it happen on the court against the best of the best. That reality warrants cautious optimism, but man, it feels like Shulga is bound to hit a big shot to win a game. — Sam Lance
12. Liberty (28-6, 13-5 CUSA)
Coach: Ritchie McKay (1-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kaden Metheny (Second-team All-CUSA)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 10.4%
Final Four projected chance: 0.4%
Liberty ranks No. 2 in effective field goal percentage and shot nearly 40 percent from 3 as a team while getting up 3s on nearly 48 percent of their field goal attempts. Metheny and Colin Porter are sub-6-foot guards, but they know how to play. McKay also hit the portal and added more size and athleticism in the form of Owen Aquino and Jayvon Maughmer. — Rob Dauster
13. Akron (28-6, 17-1 MAC)
Coach: John Groce (4-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Nate Johnson (MAC Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 3.7%
Final Four projected chance: 0.07%
Akron excels on offense. It ranks No. 31 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense, scoring 55.8 percent inside the arc and 36.6 percent outside of it. Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott, Sharron Young, Bowen Hardman and Isaiah Gray each converted at least 36.5 percent from the perimeter. Prolific. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, the Zips didn’t exactly zap the competition on D, slotting outside the top 180 in effective field goal percentage defense. — Brad Evans
John Groce once led Ohio to the Sweet 16 as a No. 13 seed in 2012. Could he do the same with Akron? (Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
14. Montana (25-9, 15-3 Big Sky)
Coach: Travis DeCuire (0-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Joe Pridgen (First-team All-Big Sky)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 1.1%
Final Four projected chance: 0.03%
At 14-1 since Jan. 20, the Grizzlies are one of the tournament’s hottest teams — no matter league affiliation. Money Williams and associates can pile up the points. Over their last 10 games, they ranked No. 6 in effective field goal percentage offense, netting a scorching 61 percent from inside the arc and 38.3 percent outside of it. Not complete slouches on defense during the stretch, they conceded only 30.7 percent from 3. Montana’s perimeter ability makes DeCulre’s team an interesting Cinderella candidate. However, its lack of height — resulting in questionable glass performance and shoddy interior defense — should temper upset beliefs. — Brad Evans
15. Robert Morris (26-8, 15-5 Horizon)
Coach: Andrew Toole (1-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Alvaro Folgueiras (Horizon League Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 1.0%
Final Four projected chance: 0.03%
Robert Morris’ season flipped in late December when Kam Woods returned to the starting lineup after getting injured. He’s a volume scorer and tough-shot maker who averaged 19.7 points in the Colonials’ Horizon League tournament run. But the guy who makes this team tick is Folgueiras, a 6-foot-9 Spaniard who is one of the most well-rounded bigs in college basketball. This team is 16-1 since Jan. 9. — Rob Dauster
16. American (22-12, 13-5 Patriot)
Coach: Duane Simpkins (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Matt Rogers (First-team All-Patriot League)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 0.1%
Final Four projected chance: 0.00%
In just his second year, Simpkins took the Eagles dancing in large part due to his ability to keep players on his roster. Rogers, the leading scorer and one of the best mid-major bigs in the country, played all five years at American despite having plenty of transfer offers. The same goes for starting point guard Eli Stephens and wing Colin Smalls. They stuck around despite the fact that Simpkins took over midway through their careers. — Rob Dauster
16. Mount St. Mary’s (22-12, 12-8 MAAC)
Coach: Donny Lind (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Dola Adebayo (Second-team All-MAAC)
BetMGM title odds: +200000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 0.03%
Final Four projected chance: 0.00%
After struggling early, The Mount got hot at the right time, winning 11 of the last 14 games after sitting at just 4-5 in the league in late January. The Mountaineers win with their defense. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they limit dribble penetration and force opponents into taking tough jumpers. That works well against teams of similar size. That doesn’t work quite as well when a mid-major is going up against a high-major. If the Mountaineers are going to pull off an upset, it will come down to the play of Dallas Hobbs at the point. They rank 359th out of 364 teams in turnover rate. That will not work in March. — Rob Dauster
(Photo: Jim Dedmon / Imagn Images)
