The South Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament features a number of top seeds that have been among the most successful programs in the sport the last several years. From top-seeded Houston to Marquette and blue bloods Kentucky and Duke, there is no shortage of big-name teams.
Houston, the top seed in the regional and the No. 2 overall seed in the tournament, has looked like the best team in the country at times. The Cougars won 30 games and the regular season title in the Big 12, arguably the best league in the country.
Marquette is a No. 2 seed for the second year in a row. The Golden Eagles have 54 wins the past two seasons under Shaka Smart, but star guard Tyler Kolek is dealing with an injury. Kolek didn’t play in the Big East Tournament, but Marquette made the final without him.
Then there are Kentucky and Duke. The Wildcats are the No. 3 seed and have as much talent as anyone in the country, but haven’t always lived up to that this season. They’re still plenty dangerous. It’s a similar story for Duke — the Blue Devils are hoping to make the Sweet 16 for the first time under second-year coach Jon Scheyer.
If you’re looking for a sleeper, No. 12-seed James Madison is another 30-win team (technically, 31). The Dukes take on a Wisconsin team that has been up and down this season, but just knocked off Purdue en route to the final of the Big Ten Tournament.
Nebraska is more known for football than basketball, but the No. 8-seed Cornhuskers have a solid chance to win an NCAA Tournament game for the first time in program history. Nebraska is the only power conference school still waiting on its first tourney win.
All odds are from BetMGM.
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Strengths: Houston’s defense is the stuff of nightmares. The Cougars rank high in most defensive categories, including No. 2 in effective FG% (44 percent), blocks (16.1 percent) and steals (15.5 percent). They are top five in turnover percentage (24.7) and 2-point defense (43.4 percent) and just outside that for 3-point defense (29.6 percent). The Cougars aren’t big but feature incredible athletes in the frontcourt in J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis. Roberts did suffer a knee injury in the Big 12 Tournament, but played after. Jamal Shead may be the best all-around point guard in the sport. He’s just as likely to block a shot as to bury a game-winner.
Weaknesses: Depth is a concern at every position. Houston lost key reserves in wing Terrance Arceneaux, forward Jojo Tugler and guard Ramon Walker Jr. And while Houston never struggles to get shots, it can struggle to make them. Houston’s 50 percent effective FG rate is the lowest among any team seeded 1-5. Emanuel Sharp can heat up, but this is a team built to win 55-45, not 70-60.
Outlook: Houston dominated the AAC the last six seasons — 176-34 overall — then did the same in its first season in the Big 12. The Cougars finished ahead by two games, no small thing for a top league. They do it with defense, offensive rebounding, and a team that doesn’t try to play outside of itself. There are no stars on Houston. Just five starters and two key reserves focused on getting to every loose ball, challenging every shot, and wearing every team down. Every advanced metric rates the Coogs as the team to beat.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Houston’s defense is the stuff of nightmares. The Cougars rank high in most defensive categories, including No. 2 in effective FG% (44 percent), blocks (16.1 percent) and steals (15.5 percent). They are top five in turnover percentage (24.7) and 2-point defense (43.4 percent) and just outside that for 3-point defense (29.6 percent). The Cougars aren’t big but feature incredible athletes in the frontcourt in J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis. Roberts did suffer a knee injury in the Big 12 Tournament, but played after. Jamal Shead may be the best all-around point guard in the sport. He’s just as likely to block a shot as to bury a game-winner.
Weaknesses: Depth is a concern at every position. Houston lost key reserves in wing Terrance Arceneaux, forward Jojo Tugler and guard Ramon Walker Jr. And while Houston never struggles to get shots, it can struggle to make them. Houston’s 50 percent effective FG rate is the lowest among any team seeded 1-5. Emanuel Sharp can heat up, but this is a team built to win 55-45, not 70-60.
Outlook: Houston dominated the AAC the last six seasons — 176-34 overall — then did the same in its first season in the Big 12. The Cougars finished ahead by two games, no small thing for a top league. They do it with defense, offensive rebounding, and a team that doesn’t try to play outside of itself. There are no stars on Houston. Just five starters and two key reserves focused on getting to every loose ball, challenging every shot, and wearing every team down. Every advanced metric rates the Coogs as the team to beat.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Houston’s defense is the stuff of nightmares. The Cougars rank high in most defensive categories, including No. 2 in effective FG% (44 percent), blocks (16.1 percent) and steals (15.5 percent). They are top five in turnover percentage (24.7) and 2-point defense (43.4 percent) and just outside that for 3-point defense (29.6 percent). The Cougars aren’t big but feature incredible athletes in the frontcourt in J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis. Roberts did suffer a knee injury in the Big 12 Tournament, but played after. Jamal Shead may be the best all-around point guard in the sport. He’s just as likely to block a shot as to bury a game-winner.
Weaknesses: Depth is a concern at every position. Houston lost key reserves in wing Terrance Arceneaux, forward Jojo Tugler and guard Ramon Walker Jr. And while Houston never struggles to get shots, it can struggle to make them. Houston’s 50 percent effective FG rate is the lowest among any team seeded 1-5. Emanuel Sharp can heat up, but this is a team built to win 55-45, not 70-60.
Outlook: Houston dominated the AAC the last six seasons — 176-34 overall — then did the same in its first season in the Big 12. The Cougars finished ahead by two games, no small thing for a top league. They do it with defense, offensive rebounding, and a team that doesn’t try to play outside of itself. There are no stars on Houston. Just five starters and two key reserves focused on getting to every loose ball, challenging every shot, and wearing every team down. Every advanced metric rates the Coogs as the team to beat.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: A ferocious defense led by an All-American point guard. Sounds like a recipe for March success.
Record: 30-4 (15-3 Big 12)
Coach: Kelvin Sampson (24-18 in NCAA Tournament, 2 Final Fours)
Player to watch: Jamal Shead (Big 12 Player of the Year)
Strengths: Not many players in college basketball are tougher than Tyler Kolek. If he gets healthy for the tournament, Marquette will be one of the most difficult teams to prepare for. Kolek is an elite distributor and plays alongside college ball’s version of Draymond Green in Oso Ighodaro. Kam Jones is capable of going for 30 on any given night, and David Joplin will be key if he stays consistent and can be another perimeter weapon to occupy defenders. When he’s playing well, and Kolek is healthy, the Golden Eagles are borderline impossible to match with offensively.
Weaknesses: Defensively, Marquette relies on switchability and ball pressure to force turnovers while relying on Ighodaro’s lane presence to take away drives and erase mistakes. With Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell playing well, some of the team’s earlier defensive issues have been covered. One of the biggest concerns prior to Kolek’s injury was the absence of Sean Jones, who tore his ACL in January. With no backup point guard on the roster, Kolek not only has to play upwards of 38 minutes, he has to do it without someone to allow him a rest playing at the two.
Outlook: This all depends on the health of Kolek. Marquette lost just three games that he has played in 2024, and Kolek averaged 6 points on 3-for-28 shooting in those three losses. They went 1-2 to close the regular season without him, and he did not play in the Big East Tournament. With him, they’re a Final Four team. Without him, it’s an entirely different story.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Not many players in college basketball are tougher than Tyler Kolek. If he gets healthy for the tournament, Marquette will be one of the most difficult teams to prepare for. Kolek is an elite distributor and plays alongside college ball’s version of Draymond Green in Oso Ighodaro. Kam Jones is capable of going for 30 on any given night, and David Joplin will be key if he stays consistent and can be another perimeter weapon to occupy defenders. When he’s playing well, and Kolek is healthy, the Golden Eagles are borderline impossible to match with offensively.
Weaknesses: Defensively, Marquette relies on switchability and ball pressure to force turnovers while relying on Ighodaro’s lane presence to take away drives and erase mistakes. With Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell playing well, some of the team’s earlier defensive issues have been covered. One of the biggest concerns prior to Kolek’s injury was the absence of Sean Jones, who tore his ACL in January. With no backup point guard on the roster, Kolek not only has to play upwards of 38 minutes, he has to do it without someone to allow him a rest playing at the two.
Outlook: This all depends on the health of Kolek. Marquette lost just three games that he has played in 2024, and Kolek averaged 6 points on 3-for-28 shooting in those three losses. They went 1-2 to close the regular season without him, and he did not play in the Big East Tournament. With him, they’re a Final Four team. Without him, it’s an entirely different story.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Not many players in college basketball are tougher than Tyler Kolek. If he gets healthy for the tournament, Marquette will be one of the most difficult teams to prepare for. Kolek is an elite distributor and plays alongside college ball’s version of Draymond Green in Oso Ighodaro. Kam Jones is capable of going for 30 on any given night, and David Joplin will be key if he stays consistent and can be another perimeter weapon to occupy defenders. When he’s playing well, and Kolek is healthy, the Golden Eagles are borderline impossible to match with offensively.
Weaknesses: Defensively, Marquette relies on switchability and ball pressure to force turnovers while relying on Ighodaro’s lane presence to take away drives and erase mistakes. With Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell playing well, some of the team’s earlier defensive issues have been covered. One of the biggest concerns prior to Kolek’s injury was the absence of Sean Jones, who tore his ACL in January. With no backup point guard on the roster, Kolek not only has to play upwards of 38 minutes, he has to do it without someone to allow him a rest playing at the two.
Outlook: This all depends on the health of Kolek. Marquette lost just three games that he has played in 2024, and Kolek averaged 6 points on 3-for-28 shooting in those three losses. They went 1-2 to close the regular season without him, and he did not play in the Big East Tournament. With him, they’re a Final Four team. Without him, it’s an entirely different story.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: Shaka Smart hasn’t made the second weekend of the tournament since the 2011 Final Four run.
Record: 25-9 (14-6 Big East)
Coach: Shaka Smart (8-10 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)
Player to watch: Tyler Kolek (first-team All-Big East)
Strengths: There is no team in college basketball with the highs and lows of the Kentucky Wildcats. This is not your typical John Calipari team. Kentucky runs. The Wildcats chuck up 3s. They have four guards — Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reeves and D.J. Wagner — who can score. They scored more than 100 points six times in the regular season. Alabama is the only high-major program that plays at a faster tempo than Kentucky. With 7-foot-2 Croatian Zvonimir Ivisic and Justin Edwards hitting their stride this group’s offensive firepower is unmatched in college basketball …
Weaknesses: … on the nights when they’re making shots. Edwards has been up and down this year. Wagner has been streaky. Dillingham is either the best player on the floor or the worst player on the floor, and there is no middle ground. When they struggle, they struggle, and that’s to say nothing of the defensive side of the ball. Kentucky ranked 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the regular season. The Wildcats are going to have to score 90 or more points if they want to beat good teams in March.
Outlook: I’m much less concerned with the Wildcats than I was six weeks ago. They don’t need to be perfect on the defensive end of the floor because of how potent they are offensively, and I do believe there is legitimate Final Four upside with this team. I also think they are as likely as any of the protected seeds to get dropped in the first weekend. Put another way: it’s a roll of the dice regardless of what you do with them, so bet the over and sit back and enjoy the ride.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: There is no team in college basketball with the highs and lows of the Kentucky Wildcats. This is not your typical John Calipari team. Kentucky runs. The Wildcats chuck up 3s. They have four guards — Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reeves and D.J. Wagner — who can score. They scored more than 100 points six times in the regular season. Alabama is the only high-major program that plays at a faster tempo than Kentucky. With 7-foot-2 Croatian Zvonimir Ivisic and Justin Edwards hitting their stride this group’s offensive firepower is unmatched in college basketball …
Weaknesses: … on the nights when they’re making shots. Edwards has been up and down this year. Wagner has been streaky. Dillingham is either the best player on the floor or the worst player on the floor, and there is no middle ground. When they struggle, they struggle, and that’s to say nothing of the defensive side of the ball. Kentucky ranked 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the regular season. The Wildcats are going to have to score 90 or more points if they want to beat good teams in March.
Outlook: I’m much less concerned with the Wildcats than I was six weeks ago. They don’t need to be perfect on the defensive end of the floor because of how potent they are offensively, and I do believe there is legitimate Final Four upside with this team. I also think they are as likely as any of the protected seeds to get dropped in the first weekend. Put another way: it’s a roll of the dice regardless of what you do with them, so bet the over and sit back and enjoy the ride.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: There is no team in college basketball with the highs and lows of the Kentucky Wildcats. This is not your typical John Calipari team. Kentucky runs. The Wildcats chuck up 3s. They have four guards — Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reeves and D.J. Wagner — who can score. They scored more than 100 points six times in the regular season. Alabama is the only high-major program that plays at a faster tempo than Kentucky. With 7-foot-2 Croatian Zvonimir Ivisic and Justin Edwards hitting their stride this group’s offensive firepower is unmatched in college basketball …
Weaknesses: … on the nights when they’re making shots. Edwards has been up and down this year. Wagner has been streaky. Dillingham is either the best player on the floor or the worst player on the floor, and there is no middle ground. When they struggle, they struggle, and that’s to say nothing of the defensive side of the ball. Kentucky ranked 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the regular season. The Wildcats are going to have to score 90 or more points if they want to beat good teams in March.
Outlook: I’m much less concerned with the Wildcats than I was six weeks ago. They don’t need to be perfect on the defensive end of the floor because of how potent they are offensively, and I do believe there is legitimate Final Four upside with this team. I also think they are as likely as any of the protected seeds to get dropped in the first weekend. Put another way: it’s a roll of the dice regardless of what you do with them, so bet the over and sit back and enjoy the ride.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: No team in college basketball has a higher ceiling and lower floor than these Kentucky Wildcats.
Record: 23-9 (13-5 SEC)
Coach: John Calipari (57-21 in NCAA Tournament, 6 Final Fours, 1 national title)
Player to watch: Reed Sheppard (SEC Freshman of the Year)
Strengths: Duke has weapons. Kyle Filipowski is one of the best frontcourt players in the country and is versatile in how he can score. Freshman Jared McCain can take over a game, Jeremy Roach is an experienced guard capable of going for 20 and even Tyrese Proctor — who has been disappointing — is more than capable. Then add Mark Mitchell as a glue guy who defends, rebounds and can score when necessary. There aren’t too many teams capable of matching this starting group, especially talent-wise.
Weaknesses: The Blue Devils just don’t have a big-time defensive presence in the middle, as was the case a year ago with Dereck Lively II, and it makes them suspect when it comes to rim protection. Teams will go at Filipowski — who can be exposed on that end of the court. Proctor has also been ordinary for much of the season when the hope was he would turn into an All-American candidate.
Outlook: There aren’t many teams in the country that can match Duke’s overall talent and experience. Scheyer has a couple of likely first-round picks in Filipowski and Proctor, and McCain has shown he can carry the team if necessary from a scoring standpoint. Roach is a veteran capable of making big shots, and Mitchell has had his moments.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: Duke has weapons. Kyle Filipowski is one of the best frontcourt players in the country and is versatile in how he can score. Freshman Jared McCain can take over a game, Jeremy Roach is an experienced guard capable of going for 20 and even Tyrese Proctor — who has been disappointing — is more than capable. Then add Mark Mitchell as a glue guy who defends, rebounds and can score when necessary. There aren’t too many teams capable of matching this starting group, especially talent-wise.
Weaknesses: The Blue Devils just don’t have a big-time defensive presence in the middle, as was the case a year ago with Dereck Lively II, and it makes them suspect when it comes to rim protection. Teams will go at Filipowski — who can be exposed on that end of the court. Proctor has also been ordinary for much of the season when the hope was he would turn into an All-American candidate.
Outlook: There aren’t many teams in the country that can match Duke’s overall talent and experience. Scheyer has a couple of likely first-round picks in Filipowski and Proctor, and McCain has shown he can carry the team if necessary from a scoring standpoint. Roach is a veteran capable of making big shots, and Mitchell has had his moments.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: Duke has weapons. Kyle Filipowski is one of the best frontcourt players in the country and is versatile in how he can score. Freshman Jared McCain can take over a game, Jeremy Roach is an experienced guard capable of going for 20 and even Tyrese Proctor — who has been disappointing — is more than capable. Then add Mark Mitchell as a glue guy who defends, rebounds and can score when necessary. There aren’t too many teams capable of matching this starting group, especially talent-wise.
Weaknesses: The Blue Devils just don’t have a big-time defensive presence in the middle, as was the case a year ago with Dereck Lively II, and it makes them suspect when it comes to rim protection. Teams will go at Filipowski — who can be exposed on that end of the court. Proctor has also been ordinary for much of the season when the hope was he would turn into an All-American candidate.
Outlook: There aren’t many teams in the country that can match Duke’s overall talent and experience. Scheyer has a couple of likely first-round picks in Filipowski and Proctor, and McCain has shown he can carry the team if necessary from a scoring standpoint. Roach is a veteran capable of making big shots, and Mitchell has had his moments.
—Jeff Goodman
Team in 16 words: Jon Scheyer has enough talent and experience in year two to make a Final Four run.
Record: 24-8 (15-5 ACC)
Coach: Jon Scheyer (1-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kyle Filipowski (first-team All-ACC)
Strengths: Unlike previous iterations of this team, the Badgers can play at variable paces, performing undisturbed regardless of opponent speed preference — especially given their above-average offense. Wisconsin ranks in the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, tallying nearly 1.2 points per possession. Forwards Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl are a tremendous one-two punch whether crashing the boards or converting high-percentage buckets. The guard squad brings upsides in Max Klesmit’s marksmanship from 3, Chucky Hepburn’s thievery and AJ Storr’s all-around scoring ability.
Weaknesses: To say Wisconsin is lazy on defense is an understatement. Over the last month of the regular season, the Badgers ranked No. 299 in effective field-goal percentage defense, giving up a hideous 51.6 percent from two and 39.8 percent from three. Yikes. Also, if whistles against them rack up, they don’t have much depth to lean on. Wisconsin ranks in the bottom third in bench minutes played.
Outlook: Wisconsin lost eight of its final 11 regular-season games. The Badgers’ clawless defense, absence of depth and flat finish made them an early-round knockout candidate. … or so we thought. Their renaissance in the Big Ten Tournament — where they lost to Illinois in the final — showcased deep-run appeal when all the cylinders fire. To that end, they’re incredibly hard to forecast.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Unlike previous iterations of this team, the Badgers can play at variable paces, performing undisturbed regardless of opponent speed preference — especially given their above-average offense. Wisconsin ranks in the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, tallying nearly 1.2 points per possession. Forwards Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl are a tremendous one-two punch whether crashing the boards or converting high-percentage buckets. The guard squad brings upsides in Max Klesmit’s marksmanship from 3, Chucky Hepburn’s thievery and AJ Storr’s all-around scoring ability.
Weaknesses: To say Wisconsin is lazy on defense is an understatement. Over the last month of the regular season, the Badgers ranked No. 299 in effective field-goal percentage defense, giving up a hideous 51.6 percent from two and 39.8 percent from three. Yikes. Also, if whistles against them rack up, they don’t have much depth to lean on. Wisconsin ranks in the bottom third in bench minutes played.
Outlook: Wisconsin lost eight of its final 11 regular-season games. The Badgers’ clawless defense, absence of depth and flat finish made them an early-round knockout candidate. … or so we thought. Their renaissance in the Big Ten Tournament — where they lost to Illinois in the final — showcased deep-run appeal when all the cylinders fire. To that end, they’re incredibly hard to forecast.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Unlike previous iterations of this team, the Badgers can play at variable paces, performing undisturbed regardless of opponent speed preference — especially given their above-average offense. Wisconsin ranks in the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, tallying nearly 1.2 points per possession. Forwards Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl are a tremendous one-two punch whether crashing the boards or converting high-percentage buckets. The guard squad brings upsides in Max Klesmit’s marksmanship from 3, Chucky Hepburn’s thievery and AJ Storr’s all-around scoring ability.
Weaknesses: To say Wisconsin is lazy on defense is an understatement. Over the last month of the regular season, the Badgers ranked No. 299 in effective field-goal percentage defense, giving up a hideous 51.6 percent from two and 39.8 percent from three. Yikes. Also, if whistles against them rack up, they don’t have much depth to lean on. Wisconsin ranks in the bottom third in bench minutes played.
Outlook: Wisconsin lost eight of its final 11 regular-season games. The Badgers’ clawless defense, absence of depth and flat finish made them an early-round knockout candidate. … or so we thought. Their renaissance in the Big Ten Tournament — where they lost to Illinois in the final — showcased deep-run appeal when all the cylinders fire. To that end, they’re incredibly hard to forecast.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: Overachieving earlier this season, Wisconsin emerged from a slide with a deep Big 10 tourney run.
Record: 22-13 (11-9 Big Ten)
Coach: Greg Gard (6-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: AJ Storr (second-team All-Big Ten)
Strengths: Over six seasons at North Texas, Grant McCasland’s teams always played slow and were often among the sport’s lowest-scoring teams. In contrast, over his first season at Texas Tech, McCasland has developed a Red Raiders team that doesn’t hurry but can score in a hurry. More than 40 percent of their shots are from beyond the arc, and they connect at a 36.5 percent rate.
Weaknesses: Without injured big man Warren Washington (foot), Texas Tech’s size can be an issue. The Red Raiders are 5-3 when the 7-foot senior doesn’t play. Their standout player Pop Isaacs can score in bunches, but his shot selection isn’t always great.
Outlook: This isn’t like the Texas Tech teams from the Chris Beard and Mark Adams eras. These guys can shoot — and they still play a little defense when needed. How they’ll fare in the NCAA Tournament depends entirely on the matchup. Teams with size will present issues for them, and if the Raiders aren’t hitting from long range, their offense can stagnate. A trip to the Sweet 16 would be a big win.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Over six seasons at North Texas, Grant McCasland’s teams always played slow and were often among the sport’s lowest-scoring teams. In contrast, over his first season at Texas Tech, McCasland has developed a Red Raiders team that doesn’t hurry but can score in a hurry. More than 40 percent of their shots are from beyond the arc, and they connect at a 36.5 percent rate.
Weaknesses: Without injured big man Warren Washington (foot), Texas Tech’s size can be an issue. The Red Raiders are 5-3 when the 7-foot senior doesn’t play. Their standout player Pop Isaacs can score in bunches, but his shot selection isn’t always great.
Outlook: This isn’t like the Texas Tech teams from the Chris Beard and Mark Adams eras. These guys can shoot — and they still play a little defense when needed. How they’ll fare in the NCAA Tournament depends entirely on the matchup. Teams with size will present issues for them, and if the Raiders aren’t hitting from long range, their offense can stagnate. A trip to the Sweet 16 would be a big win.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Over six seasons at North Texas, Grant McCasland’s teams always played slow and were often among the sport’s lowest-scoring teams. In contrast, over his first season at Texas Tech, McCasland has developed a Red Raiders team that doesn’t hurry but can score in a hurry. More than 40 percent of their shots are from beyond the arc, and they connect at a 36.5 percent rate.
Weaknesses: Without injured big man Warren Washington (foot), Texas Tech’s size can be an issue. The Red Raiders are 5-3 when the 7-foot senior doesn’t play. Their standout player Pop Isaacs can score in bunches, but his shot selection isn’t always great.
Outlook: This isn’t like the Texas Tech teams from the Chris Beard and Mark Adams eras. These guys can shoot — and they still play a little defense when needed. How they’ll fare in the NCAA Tournament depends entirely on the matchup. Teams with size will present issues for them, and if the Raiders aren’t hitting from long range, their offense can stagnate. A trip to the Sweet 16 would be a big win.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: Guard the perimeter because everyone from Texas Tech can score.
Record: 23-10 (11-7 Big 12)
Coach: Grant McCasland (1-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Pop Isaacs (third-team All-Big 12)
Strengths: Florida can score. The team ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency in the regular season, according to KenPom. Todd Golden has a pair of bucket-getters in his backcourt — Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin — and a number of terrific athletes on the wings — Will Richard, Riley Kugel and Tyrese Samuel. Pullin and Clayton complement each other perfectly in the backcourt — Clayton is more of a sharp-shooter while Pullin is at his best putting it on the floor and getting into the lane.
Weaknesses: As good as the Gators are offensively, they are that bad defensively. They ranked outside the top 80 in defensive efficiency and 314th in defensive turnover rate in the regular season. Here’s where those defensive issues manifest: Not getting stops in the second half. It’s a snowball effect where they start struggling in the halfcourt, and their offense goes down the drain. Compounding this, key shot-blocker Micah Handlogten left the SEC Championship Sunday with a severe (and scary) leg injury.
Outlook: Teams like Kentucky, Illinois, Alabama and Baylor have dominated the “They can score, but can they keep you from scoring?” conversation. But Florida deserves to be in that conversation as well. They have proven this year they can beat anyone — Auburn, Alabama, at Kentucky — and lose to anyone as well — Vanderbilt says hello.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Florida can score. The team ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency in the regular season, according to KenPom. Todd Golden has a pair of bucket-getters in his backcourt — Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin — and a number of terrific athletes on the wings — Will Richard, Riley Kugel and Tyrese Samuel. Pullin and Clayton complement each other perfectly in the backcourt — Clayton is more of a sharp-shooter while Pullin is at his best putting it on the floor and getting into the lane.
Weaknesses: As good as the Gators are offensively, they are that bad defensively. They ranked outside the top 80 in defensive efficiency and 314th in defensive turnover rate in the regular season. Here’s where those defensive issues manifest: Not getting stops in the second half. It’s a snowball effect where they start struggling in the halfcourt, and their offense goes down the drain. Compounding this, key shot-blocker Micah Handlogten left the SEC Championship Sunday with a severe (and scary) leg injury.
Outlook: Teams like Kentucky, Illinois, Alabama and Baylor have dominated the “They can score, but can they keep you from scoring?” conversation. But Florida deserves to be in that conversation as well. They have proven this year they can beat anyone — Auburn, Alabama, at Kentucky — and lose to anyone as well — Vanderbilt says hello.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Florida can score. The team ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency in the regular season, according to KenPom. Todd Golden has a pair of bucket-getters in his backcourt — Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin — and a number of terrific athletes on the wings — Will Richard, Riley Kugel and Tyrese Samuel. Pullin and Clayton complement each other perfectly in the backcourt — Clayton is more of a sharp-shooter while Pullin is at his best putting it on the floor and getting into the lane.
Weaknesses: As good as the Gators are offensively, they are that bad defensively. They ranked outside the top 80 in defensive efficiency and 314th in defensive turnover rate in the regular season. Here’s where those defensive issues manifest: Not getting stops in the second half. It’s a snowball effect where they start struggling in the halfcourt, and their offense goes down the drain. Compounding this, key shot-blocker Micah Handlogten left the SEC Championship Sunday with a severe (and scary) leg injury.
Outlook: Teams like Kentucky, Illinois, Alabama and Baylor have dominated the “They can score, but can they keep you from scoring?” conversation. But Florida deserves to be in that conversation as well. They have proven this year they can beat anyone — Auburn, Alabama, at Kentucky — and lose to anyone as well — Vanderbilt says hello.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: An explosive offense run by an analytics maven where defense is optional? Florida is entertaining.
Record: 24-11 (11-7 SEC)
Coach: Todd Golden (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Walter Clayton Jr. (second-team All-SEC)
Strengths: The Cornhuskers have placed opponents in a sleeper hold over the past several weeks. Over their final 10 regular-season games, they ranked top five nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, conceding only 44.8 percent from two and 29 percent from three. Stifling. On the scoring side, Fred Hoiberg’s squad is often prolific from the perimeter. Keisei Tominaga, Brice Williams, C.J. Wilcher, Jamarques Lawrence and Rienk Mast each shoot at least 34 percent from distance. Overall, nearly 45 percent of their shots come from outside.
Weaknesses: Cupcake city best sums up Nebraska’s non-conference strength of schedule (No. 322 in the country). Outside of a win against lackluster Kansas State in December and a loss to Creighton, the Cornhuskers weren’t often challenged beyond the Big Ten. As a below-average rebounding team, the Huskers are also vulnerable if matched against a formidable interior. Most unsettling, they were just 5-9 in road and neutral games.
Outlook: Doing its best Michigan State impression, the Huskers are peaking at the most opportune time. Yes, their suspect play away from Lincoln is well documented, but Tominaga, when on, is an absolute flamethrower. Just ask Purdue. Nebraska’s outside execution combined with its oxygen-depriving defense labels it a sleeper. Top seeds beware.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Cornhuskers have placed opponents in a sleeper hold over the past several weeks. Over their final 10 regular-season games, they ranked top five nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, conceding only 44.8 percent from two and 29 percent from three. Stifling. On the scoring side, Fred Hoiberg’s squad is often prolific from the perimeter. Keisei Tominaga, Brice Williams, C.J. Wilcher, Jamarques Lawrence and Rienk Mast each shoot at least 34 percent from distance. Overall, nearly 45 percent of their shots come from outside.
Weaknesses: Cupcake city best sums up Nebraska’s non-conference strength of schedule (No. 322 in the country). Outside of a win against lackluster Kansas State in December and a loss to Creighton, the Cornhuskers weren’t often challenged beyond the Big Ten. As a below-average rebounding team, the Huskers are also vulnerable if matched against a formidable interior. Most unsettling, they were just 5-9 in road and neutral games.
Outlook: Doing its best Michigan State impression, the Huskers are peaking at the most opportune time. Yes, their suspect play away from Lincoln is well documented, but Tominaga, when on, is an absolute flamethrower. Just ask Purdue. Nebraska’s outside execution combined with its oxygen-depriving defense labels it a sleeper. Top seeds beware.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Cornhuskers have placed opponents in a sleeper hold over the past several weeks. Over their final 10 regular-season games, they ranked top five nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, conceding only 44.8 percent from two and 29 percent from three. Stifling. On the scoring side, Fred Hoiberg’s squad is often prolific from the perimeter. Keisei Tominaga, Brice Williams, C.J. Wilcher, Jamarques Lawrence and Rienk Mast each shoot at least 34 percent from distance. Overall, nearly 45 percent of their shots come from outside.
Weaknesses: Cupcake city best sums up Nebraska’s non-conference strength of schedule (No. 322 in the country). Outside of a win against lackluster Kansas State in December and a loss to Creighton, the Cornhuskers weren’t often challenged beyond the Big Ten. As a below-average rebounding team, the Huskers are also vulnerable if matched against a formidable interior. Most unsettling, they were just 5-9 in road and neutral games.
Outlook: Doing its best Michigan State impression, the Huskers are peaking at the most opportune time. Yes, their suspect play away from Lincoln is well documented, but Tominaga, when on, is an absolute flamethrower. Just ask Purdue. Nebraska’s outside execution combined with its oxygen-depriving defense labels it a sleeper. Top seeds beware.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Thanks to a steady dose of defense and 3-pointers, the perennial doormats have second weekend appeal.
Record: 23-10 (12-8 Big Ten)
Coach: Fred Hoiberg (4-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Keisei Tominaga (second-team All-Big Ten)
Strengths: This is a capable, athletic team with two guards — Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford — who have put opponents in blenders. A third, Manny Obaseki, is surging late in the season. The Aggies are top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency and top 50 in steal percentage, a reflection of the variety of pressure strategies coach Buzz Williams employs. The Aggies beat Kentucky twice, Tennessee, Iowa State and Florida and gave Houston a great game, so high-end winning potential is there. And A&M leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (40 percent).
Weaknesses: The opportunities for offensive rebounds are plentiful because this is a terrible shooting team. They’re around the 350s nationally in effective field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage, and Taylor is shooting the best among Aggies who have taken 50 or more from long range — at 31.5 percent. Texas A&M also has lost way too many close games for having veteran guards, some to bad teams, including Vanderbilt and Arkansas (twice). Texas A&M has athletic length in players like Solomon Washington and Henry Coleman III, but offensive creation is all on the guards.
Outlook: Radford can get wherever he wants to go with his hesitation dribbles and bursts of speed. Taylor is a nightmare for defenders and creates shots for his teammates. When Taylor also hits some of his own from deep — and when Radford doesn’t settle for too many of those shots — the Aggies look more like the team they were supposed to be. It’s hard to count on that to show up every night in the NCAA Tournament, but no opponent should relish drawing the Aggies. Kentucky sure didn’t in a 97-87 SEC tourney upset loss to them.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: This is a capable, athletic team with two guards — Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford — who have put opponents in blenders. A third, Manny Obaseki, is surging late in the season. The Aggies are top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency and top 50 in steal percentage, a reflection of the variety of pressure strategies coach Buzz Williams employs. The Aggies beat Kentucky twice, Tennessee, Iowa State and Florida and gave Houston a great game, so high-end winning potential is there. And A&M leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (40 percent).
Weaknesses: The opportunities for offensive rebounds are plentiful because this is a terrible shooting team. They’re around the 350s nationally in effective field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage, and Taylor is shooting the best among Aggies who have taken 50 or more from long range — at 31.5 percent. Texas A&M also has lost way too many close games for having veteran guards, some to bad teams, including Vanderbilt and Arkansas (twice). Texas A&M has athletic length in players like Solomon Washington and Henry Coleman III, but offensive creation is all on the guards.
Outlook: Radford can get wherever he wants to go with his hesitation dribbles and bursts of speed. Taylor is a nightmare for defenders and creates shots for his teammates. When Taylor also hits some of his own from deep — and when Radford doesn’t settle for too many of those shots — the Aggies look more like the team they were supposed to be. It’s hard to count on that to show up every night in the NCAA Tournament, but no opponent should relish drawing the Aggies. Kentucky sure didn’t in a 97-87 SEC tourney upset loss to them.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: This is a capable, athletic team with two guards — Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford — who have put opponents in blenders. A third, Manny Obaseki, is surging late in the season. The Aggies are top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency and top 50 in steal percentage, a reflection of the variety of pressure strategies coach Buzz Williams employs. The Aggies beat Kentucky twice, Tennessee, Iowa State and Florida and gave Houston a great game, so high-end winning potential is there. And A&M leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (40 percent).
Weaknesses: The opportunities for offensive rebounds are plentiful because this is a terrible shooting team. They’re around the 350s nationally in effective field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage, and Taylor is shooting the best among Aggies who have taken 50 or more from long range — at 31.5 percent. Texas A&M also has lost way too many close games for having veteran guards, some to bad teams, including Vanderbilt and Arkansas (twice). Texas A&M has athletic length in players like Solomon Washington and Henry Coleman III, but offensive creation is all on the guards.
Outlook: Radford can get wherever he wants to go with his hesitation dribbles and bursts of speed. Taylor is a nightmare for defenders and creates shots for his teammates. When Taylor also hits some of his own from deep — and when Radford doesn’t settle for too many of those shots — the Aggies look more like the team they were supposed to be. It’s hard to count on that to show up every night in the NCAA Tournament, but no opponent should relish drawing the Aggies. Kentucky sure didn’t in a 97-87 SEC tourney upset loss to them.
—Joe Rexrode
Team in 16 words: It has been a disappointing season, but the Aggies’ guards and offensive rebounding make them dangerous.
Record: 20-14 (9-9 SEC)
Coach: Buzz Williams (10-9 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Wade Taylor IV (first-team All-SEC)
Strengths: Boise State knows who it is. The Broncos play slow, and they limit teams’ second-chance points (12th in defensive rebound percentage) and perimeter shots. That’s the plan. They have decent size across their starting five — everyone’s 6-foot-3 to 6-foot-8 — and experience.
Weaknesses: The Broncos don’t have any game-breakers or dynamic playmakers. They’re not overly athletic. That’s a problem for certain NCAA Tournament matchups.
Outlook: Coach Leon Rice is in his 14th season at Boise State. This is his fifth NCAA Tournament appearance. He’s never won, but neither has the school — the Broncos’ nine games without a win are the most among any program. To finally get that W, the Broncos have to control the pace, limit second-chance points, and hope that senior guards Max Rice (35.7 percent from 3-point range) and Chibuzo Agbo (41.7 percent) hit plenty of 3-pointers. This is a team that plays hard, is fundamentally sound and can surprise opponents, but their margin for error is really small.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Boise State knows who it is. The Broncos play slow, and they limit teams’ second-chance points (12th in defensive rebound percentage) and perimeter shots. That’s the plan. They have decent size across their starting five — everyone’s 6-foot-3 to 6-foot-8 — and experience.
Weaknesses: The Broncos don’t have any game-breakers or dynamic playmakers. They’re not overly athletic. That’s a problem for certain NCAA Tournament matchups.
Outlook: Coach Leon Rice is in his 14th season at Boise State. This is his fifth NCAA Tournament appearance. He’s never won, but neither has the school — the Broncos’ nine games without a win are the most among any program. To finally get that W, the Broncos have to control the pace, limit second-chance points, and hope that senior guards Max Rice (35.7 percent from 3-point range) and Chibuzo Agbo (41.7 percent) hit plenty of 3-pointers. This is a team that plays hard, is fundamentally sound and can surprise opponents, but their margin for error is really small.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Boise State knows who it is. The Broncos play slow, and they limit teams’ second-chance points (12th in defensive rebound percentage) and perimeter shots. That’s the plan. They have decent size across their starting five — everyone’s 6-foot-3 to 6-foot-8 — and experience.
Weaknesses: The Broncos don’t have any game-breakers or dynamic playmakers. They’re not overly athletic. That’s a problem for certain NCAA Tournament matchups.
Outlook: Coach Leon Rice is in his 14th season at Boise State. This is his fifth NCAA Tournament appearance. He’s never won, but neither has the school — the Broncos’ nine games without a win are the most among any program. To finally get that W, the Broncos have to control the pace, limit second-chance points, and hope that senior guards Max Rice (35.7 percent from 3-point range) and Chibuzo Agbo (41.7 percent) hit plenty of 3-pointers. This is a team that plays hard, is fundamentally sound and can surprise opponents, but their margin for error is really small.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: A deliberate, defensive-minded team hoping to finally get an NCAA Tournament win.
Record: 22-10 (13-5 MWC)
Coach: Leon Rice (0-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tyson Degenhart (first-team All-MWC)
Strengths: There is no more valuable player coming out of the Pac-12 than KJ Simpson. He is a dynamic, 6-foot-2 point guard averaging a shade under 20-6-5 while shooting 45 percent from 3. He never leaves the floor, averaging 40 minutes per game during a recent eight-game winning streak that punched their ticket to the dance. And he’s not even the most talented player. Cody Williams, who has battled injuries all year long, is a potential lottery pick. Tristan da Silva is a 6-foot-9 stretch four with 3-point range and defensive switchability. Eddie Lampkin Jr. inhales offensive rebounds.
Weaknesses: The concern with this Colorado group is on the defensive end. The Buffaloes tend to favor lineups that feature Lampkin at the five alongside da Silva and Williams. Neither da Silva or Williams are, at this point in their development, guys who thrive guarding down, but against smaller teams one of them is going to be stuck on a natural wing. Despite his size, Lampkin is not a rim protector — he has five blocks in 34 games this season. Colorado ranks 345th nationally in block rate and in the 290s in steal rate.
Outlook: On Feb. 16, Colorado was 16-9 overall and 7-7 in the Pac-12, coming off a stretch where it lost four of five. It looked like the Buffaloes were on the way to finishing as one of the more disappointing teams in college basketball. And then they won a double-overtime game at USC. Then they beat Utah at home. That sparked an eight-game winning streak that took them all the way to the Pac-12 Tournament title game. When they get rolling, they can be really dangerous. When Simpson is hot, they are lethal. They can win a game, maybe two.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: There is no more valuable player coming out of the Pac-12 than KJ Simpson. He is a dynamic, 6-foot-2 point guard averaging a shade under 20-6-5 while shooting 45 percent from 3. He never leaves the floor, averaging 40 minutes per game during a recent eight-game winning streak that punched their ticket to the dance. And he’s not even the most talented player. Cody Williams, who has battled injuries all year long, is a potential lottery pick. Tristan da Silva is a 6-foot-9 stretch four with 3-point range and defensive switchability. Eddie Lampkin Jr. inhales offensive rebounds.
Weaknesses: The concern with this Colorado group is on the defensive end. The Buffaloes tend to favor lineups that feature Lampkin at the five alongside da Silva and Williams. Neither da Silva or Williams are, at this point in their development, guys who thrive guarding down, but against smaller teams one of them is going to be stuck on a natural wing. Despite his size, Lampkin is not a rim protector — he has five blocks in 34 games this season. Colorado ranks 345th nationally in block rate and in the 290s in steal rate.
Outlook: On Feb. 16, Colorado was 16-9 overall and 7-7 in the Pac-12, coming off a stretch where it lost four of five. It looked like the Buffaloes were on the way to finishing as one of the more disappointing teams in college basketball. And then they won a double-overtime game at USC. Then they beat Utah at home. That sparked an eight-game winning streak that took them all the way to the Pac-12 Tournament title game. When they get rolling, they can be really dangerous. When Simpson is hot, they are lethal. They can win a game, maybe two.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: There is no more valuable player coming out of the Pac-12 than KJ Simpson. He is a dynamic, 6-foot-2 point guard averaging a shade under 20-6-5 while shooting 45 percent from 3. He never leaves the floor, averaging 40 minutes per game during a recent eight-game winning streak that punched their ticket to the dance. And he’s not even the most talented player. Cody Williams, who has battled injuries all year long, is a potential lottery pick. Tristan da Silva is a 6-foot-9 stretch four with 3-point range and defensive switchability. Eddie Lampkin Jr. inhales offensive rebounds.
Weaknesses: The concern with this Colorado group is on the defensive end. The Buffaloes tend to favor lineups that feature Lampkin at the five alongside da Silva and Williams. Neither da Silva or Williams are, at this point in their development, guys who thrive guarding down, but against smaller teams one of them is going to be stuck on a natural wing. Despite his size, Lampkin is not a rim protector — he has five blocks in 34 games this season. Colorado ranks 345th nationally in block rate and in the 290s in steal rate.
Outlook: On Feb. 16, Colorado was 16-9 overall and 7-7 in the Pac-12, coming off a stretch where it lost four of five. It looked like the Buffaloes were on the way to finishing as one of the more disappointing teams in college basketball. And then they won a double-overtime game at USC. Then they beat Utah at home. That sparked an eight-game winning streak that took them all the way to the Pac-12 Tournament title game. When they get rolling, they can be really dangerous. When Simpson is hot, they are lethal. They can win a game, maybe two.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: Colorado had an up-and-down season, but the Buffaloes have the talent to be scary.
Record: 24-10 (13-7 Pac-12)
Coach: Tad Boyle (2-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: KJ Simpson (first-team All-Pac-12)
Strengths: NC State needed to win the ACC Tournament to get into March Madness and it did. Scoring is NC State’s strongest selling point. In its last eight games before the tournament season, the team scored at a blistering 1.212 points per possession per BartTorvik, ranking top 25 in the nation. Interior behemoth DJ Burns Jr. (6-foot-9, 270!) is a load to handle in the post. DJ Horne, Casey Morsell, Jayden Taylor and Michael O’Connell can be deadly from 3. NC State netted an outstanding 40.3 percent from distance over the regular season’s final month. NC State doesn’t turn over the ball a lot and grabs a lot of offensive rebounds.
Weaknesses: Like its color scheme, NC State is in the red defensively. During their final eight regular-season throwdowns, the Wolfpack ranked No. 220 nationally in points per possession allowed (1.212) and an even more deplorable No. 329 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Barf. More specifically, they yielded 54.4 percent from 2 and an even more horrendous 39.4 percent from 3. Passing a simple Defense 101 class is a necessity for the Wolfpack to survive and advance.
Outlook: Middling the entire ACC season, the Wolfpack howled at the moon over an unbelievable five-game ACC Tournament stretch (in five days) to earn their right to dance. Because they enter the NCAA Tournament red hot it’s unwise to immediately discount their potential. With suitable guard play and a mammoth bruiser in Burns, they are entirely capable of striking teams off bracket sheets.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: NC State needed to win the ACC Tournament to get into March Madness and it did. Scoring is NC State’s strongest selling point. In its last eight games before the tournament season, the team scored at a blistering 1.212 points per possession per BartTorvik, ranking top 25 in the nation. Interior behemoth DJ Burns Jr. (6-foot-9, 270!) is a load to handle in the post. DJ Horne, Casey Morsell, Jayden Taylor and Michael O’Connell can be deadly from 3. NC State netted an outstanding 40.3 percent from distance over the regular season’s final month. NC State doesn’t turn over the ball a lot and grabs a lot of offensive rebounds.
Weaknesses: Like its color scheme, NC State is in the red defensively. During their final eight regular-season throwdowns, the Wolfpack ranked No. 220 nationally in points per possession allowed (1.212) and an even more deplorable No. 329 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Barf. More specifically, they yielded 54.4 percent from 2 and an even more horrendous 39.4 percent from 3. Passing a simple Defense 101 class is a necessity for the Wolfpack to survive and advance.
Outlook: Middling the entire ACC season, the Wolfpack howled at the moon over an unbelievable five-game ACC Tournament stretch (in five days) to earn their right to dance. Because they enter the NCAA Tournament red hot it’s unwise to immediately discount their potential. With suitable guard play and a mammoth bruiser in Burns, they are entirely capable of striking teams off bracket sheets.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: NC State needed to win the ACC Tournament to get into March Madness and it did. Scoring is NC State’s strongest selling point. In its last eight games before the tournament season, the team scored at a blistering 1.212 points per possession per BartTorvik, ranking top 25 in the nation. Interior behemoth DJ Burns Jr. (6-foot-9, 270!) is a load to handle in the post. DJ Horne, Casey Morsell, Jayden Taylor and Michael O’Connell can be deadly from 3. NC State netted an outstanding 40.3 percent from distance over the regular season’s final month. NC State doesn’t turn over the ball a lot and grabs a lot of offensive rebounds.
Weaknesses: Like its color scheme, NC State is in the red defensively. During their final eight regular-season throwdowns, the Wolfpack ranked No. 220 nationally in points per possession allowed (1.212) and an even more deplorable No. 329 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Barf. More specifically, they yielded 54.4 percent from 2 and an even more horrendous 39.4 percent from 3. Passing a simple Defense 101 class is a necessity for the Wolfpack to survive and advance.
Outlook: Middling the entire ACC season, the Wolfpack howled at the moon over an unbelievable five-game ACC Tournament stretch (in five days) to earn their right to dance. Because they enter the NCAA Tournament red hot it’s unwise to immediately discount their potential. With suitable guard play and a mammoth bruiser in Burns, they are entirely capable of striking teams off bracket sheets.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Unexpected participants bring a scrappy bunch with enough offensive weapons to upset chalky brackets.
Record: 22-14 (9-11 ACC)
Coach: Kevin Keatts (0-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: DJ Horne (third-team All-ACC)
Strengths: Three players averaged double digits, led by Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., who scored a conference-high 17.4 points per game. They also have the Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in T.J. Bickerstaff (Bernie’s grandson and J.B.’s nephew), who averaged 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds a game. And there is a lot of green on their Bart Torvik profile. The Dukes are shooting 36.5 percent from behind the arc. They are deep and they pose a threat from anywhere on the floor.
Weaknesses: This season JMU played like Superman…and Appalachian State was the big block of kryptonite. The Mountaineers beat the Dukes twice. Luckily for JMU, App State was defeated before a potential third meeting in the conference tournament — and that opened up a relatively easy path to the automatic bid for the Dukes. It’s still a red flag on JMU’s resume because the NCAA Tournament is filled with teams better than App State, even if the Dukes have a win at Michigan State on their resume.
Outlook: Get ready for a high-scoring affair in the first round. Can JMU stop any of the upper echelon teams? The Dukes know how to win, but aren’t tested against top teams. They’re a dangerous underdog.
—Gene Clemons
Strengths: Three players averaged double digits, led by Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., who scored a conference-high 17.4 points per game. They also have the Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in T.J. Bickerstaff (Bernie’s grandson and J.B.’s nephew), who averaged 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds a game. And there is a lot of green on their Bart Torvik profile. The Dukes are shooting 36.5 percent from behind the arc. They are deep and they pose a threat from anywhere on the floor.
Weaknesses: This season JMU played like Superman…and Appalachian State was the big block of kryptonite. The Mountaineers beat the Dukes twice. Luckily for JMU, App State was defeated before a potential third meeting in the conference tournament — and that opened up a relatively easy path to the automatic bid for the Dukes. It’s still a red flag on JMU’s resume because the NCAA Tournament is filled with teams better than App State, even if the Dukes have a win at Michigan State on their resume.
Outlook: Get ready for a high-scoring affair in the first round. Can JMU stop any of the upper echelon teams? The Dukes know how to win, but aren’t tested against top teams. They’re a dangerous underdog.
—Gene Clemons
Strengths: Three players averaged double digits, led by Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., who scored a conference-high 17.4 points per game. They also have the Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year in T.J. Bickerstaff (Bernie’s grandson and J.B.’s nephew), who averaged 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds a game. And there is a lot of green on their Bart Torvik profile. The Dukes are shooting 36.5 percent from behind the arc. They are deep and they pose a threat from anywhere on the floor.
Weaknesses: This season JMU played like Superman…and Appalachian State was the big block of kryptonite. The Mountaineers beat the Dukes twice. Luckily for JMU, App State was defeated before a potential third meeting in the conference tournament — and that opened up a relatively easy path to the automatic bid for the Dukes. It’s still a red flag on JMU’s resume because the NCAA Tournament is filled with teams better than App State, even if the Dukes have a win at Michigan State on their resume.
Outlook: Get ready for a high-scoring affair in the first round. Can JMU stop any of the upper echelon teams? The Dukes know how to win, but aren’t tested against top teams. They’re a dangerous underdog.
—Gene Clemons
Team in 16 words: JMU has a veteran-laden squad with offensive weapons all over.
Record: 31-3 (15-3 Sun Belt)
Coach: Mark Byington (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Terrence Edwards Jr. (Sun Belt Player of the Year)
Outlook: The Catamounts have won eight straight America East regular-season titles. This is the 10th time in the last 20 NCAA Tournaments that they’ve gotten a bid — but they haven’t won a game in the tourney since T.J. Sorrentine hit that one from the parking lot.
This Vermont team is built on defense. Vermont ranks near the top 60 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and the Catamounts were to the America East what Houston is to everyone else. They are incredible at controlling tempo. They’ll make you play at their pace. They’ll make it tough for you to run offense. They’ll get on the defensive glass and end possessions. They’ve done it all year, but the question is whether or not that will work against teams that are significantly bigger and more athletic.
The other key is going to be their backcourt trio of TJ Long, Shamir Bogues and Aaron Deloney. Those three are UVM’s three leading scorers, but most of the offense that Vermont creates comes out of sets. If those sets get blown up, that trio is going to be tasked with creating against a power-conference defense. If they can win those matchups often enough, they can pull off an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: The Catamounts have won eight straight America East regular-season titles. This is the 10th time in the last 20 NCAA Tournaments that they’ve gotten a bid — but they haven’t won a game in the tourney since T.J. Sorrentine hit that one from the parking lot.
This Vermont team is built on defense. Vermont ranks near the top 60 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and the Catamounts were to the America East what Houston is to everyone else. They are incredible at controlling tempo. They’ll make you play at their pace. They’ll make it tough for you to run offense. They’ll get on the defensive glass and end possessions. They’ve done it all year, but the question is whether or not that will work against teams that are significantly bigger and more athletic.
The other key is going to be their backcourt trio of TJ Long, Shamir Bogues and Aaron Deloney. Those three are UVM’s three leading scorers, but most of the offense that Vermont creates comes out of sets. If those sets get blown up, that trio is going to be tasked with creating against a power-conference defense. If they can win those matchups often enough, they can pull off an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: The Catamounts have won eight straight America East regular-season titles. This is the 10th time in the last 20 NCAA Tournaments that they’ve gotten a bid — but they haven’t won a game in the tourney since T.J. Sorrentine hit that one from the parking lot.
This Vermont team is built on defense. Vermont ranks near the top 60 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and the Catamounts were to the America East what Houston is to everyone else. They are incredible at controlling tempo. They’ll make you play at their pace. They’ll make it tough for you to run offense. They’ll get on the defensive glass and end possessions. They’ve done it all year, but the question is whether or not that will work against teams that are significantly bigger and more athletic.
The other key is going to be their backcourt trio of TJ Long, Shamir Bogues and Aaron Deloney. Those three are UVM’s three leading scorers, but most of the offense that Vermont creates comes out of sets. If those sets get blown up, that trio is going to be tasked with creating against a power-conference defense. If they can win those matchups often enough, they can pull off an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: An America East juggernaut with a stout defense, Vermont has lost just one game in 2024.
Record: 28-6 (15-1 America East)
Coach: John Becker (1-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Shamir Bogues (first-team All-America East)
Outlook: Oakland has experience facing tough opponents. The Golden Grizzlies played at Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State and Dayton and were competitive against Illinois and Ohio State. They also beat Xavier on the road.
BartTorvik has the Golden Grizzlies at 9-3 in “close games.” Close games work both ways though: 13 of their 23 wins this season were by eight points or less. That leaves a lot of uncertainty out there.
The Golden Grizzlies should enter the NCAA Tournament with loads of confidence. They’ve won 17 of their last 20 games and took on big opponents early in the season, so they shouldn’t be fazed by having to face big-name teams. Plus, Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating are more or less in on Oakland as a potential bracket breaker, and they’re the experts on upsets!
—Gene Clemons
Outlook: Oakland has experience facing tough opponents. The Golden Grizzlies played at Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State and Dayton and were competitive against Illinois and Ohio State. They also beat Xavier on the road.
BartTorvik has the Golden Grizzlies at 9-3 in “close games.” Close games work both ways though: 13 of their 23 wins this season were by eight points or less. That leaves a lot of uncertainty out there.
The Golden Grizzlies should enter the NCAA Tournament with loads of confidence. They’ve won 17 of their last 20 games and took on big opponents early in the season, so they shouldn’t be fazed by having to face big-name teams. Plus, Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating are more or less in on Oakland as a potential bracket breaker, and they’re the experts on upsets!
—Gene Clemons
Outlook: Oakland has experience facing tough opponents. The Golden Grizzlies played at Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State and Dayton and were competitive against Illinois and Ohio State. They also beat Xavier on the road.
BartTorvik has the Golden Grizzlies at 9-3 in “close games.” Close games work both ways though: 13 of their 23 wins this season were by eight points or less. That leaves a lot of uncertainty out there.
The Golden Grizzlies should enter the NCAA Tournament with loads of confidence. They’ve won 17 of their last 20 games and took on big opponents early in the season, so they shouldn’t be fazed by having to face big-name teams. Plus, Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating are more or less in on Oakland as a potential bracket breaker, and they’re the experts on upsets!
—Gene Clemons
Team in 16 words: The Golden Grizzlies turned early-season struggles into second-half success and potentially a Cinderella slipper.
Record: 23-11 (15-5 Horizon)
Coach: Greg Kampe (1-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Trey Townsend (Horizon Player of the Year)
Outlook: Steve Lutz came in and immediately made Texas A&M Corpus-Christi a good team — two NCAA bids, 47 wins, one NCAA win in two seasons — and he has been an instant jolt for a proud program now enjoying its first NCAA bid in 11 years.
Lutz has this team playing at the fastest tempo in the sport — a shot every 14.6 seconds of possession — with a JUCO point guard controlling the action. McHenry, who was at Indian Hill (Iowa) Community College last season, is a crafty lefty who has an extraordinary feel for running the pick and roll. He’ll finish with either hand, he’ll make the right pass and he’s effective at the lost art of the mid-range jumper.
He’s got help in 6-foot-11 Georgia Tech transfer Rodney Howard, Purdue transfer and physical guard Brandon Newman, and Indiana transfer guard Khristian Lander. Throw in Kentucky transfer Dontaie Allen, who missed the C-USA title game win over UTEP with knee soreness, and it’s quite a collection of previous homes. All these guys have come together in a season to hold opponents to 41.3 percent shooting, flirting with top-100 status nationally in defensive efficiency. That’s a tremendous coaching job.
The issue for this team at times is turning it over too much (turnover percentage of 18.3). But the coach and the point guard give the Hilltoppers a chance.
—Joe Rexrode
Outlook: Steve Lutz came in and immediately made Texas A&M Corpus-Christi a good team — two NCAA bids, 47 wins, one NCAA win in two seasons — and he has been an instant jolt for a proud program now enjoying its first NCAA bid in 11 years.
Lutz has this team playing at the fastest tempo in the sport — a shot every 14.6 seconds of possession — with a JUCO point guard controlling the action. McHenry, who was at Indian Hill (Iowa) Community College last season, is a crafty lefty who has an extraordinary feel for running the pick and roll. He’ll finish with either hand, he’ll make the right pass and he’s effective at the lost art of the mid-range jumper.
He’s got help in 6-foot-11 Georgia Tech transfer Rodney Howard, Purdue transfer and physical guard Brandon Newman, and Indiana transfer guard Khristian Lander. Throw in Kentucky transfer Dontaie Allen, who missed the C-USA title game win over UTEP with knee soreness, and it’s quite a collection of previous homes. All these guys have come together in a season to hold opponents to 41.3 percent shooting, flirting with top-100 status nationally in defensive efficiency. That’s a tremendous coaching job.
The issue for this team at times is turning it over too much (turnover percentage of 18.3). But the coach and the point guard give the Hilltoppers a chance.
—Joe Rexrode
Outlook: Steve Lutz came in and immediately made Texas A&M Corpus-Christi a good team — two NCAA bids, 47 wins, one NCAA win in two seasons — and he has been an instant jolt for a proud program now enjoying its first NCAA bid in 11 years.
Lutz has this team playing at the fastest tempo in the sport — a shot every 14.6 seconds of possession — with a JUCO point guard controlling the action. McHenry, who was at Indian Hill (Iowa) Community College last season, is a crafty lefty who has an extraordinary feel for running the pick and roll. He’ll finish with either hand, he’ll make the right pass and he’s effective at the lost art of the mid-range jumper.
He’s got help in 6-foot-11 Georgia Tech transfer Rodney Howard, Purdue transfer and physical guard Brandon Newman, and Indiana transfer guard Khristian Lander. Throw in Kentucky transfer Dontaie Allen, who missed the C-USA title game win over UTEP with knee soreness, and it’s quite a collection of previous homes. All these guys have come together in a season to hold opponents to 41.3 percent shooting, flirting with top-100 status nationally in defensive efficiency. That’s a tremendous coaching job.
The issue for this team at times is turning it over too much (turnover percentage of 18.3). But the coach and the point guard give the Hilltoppers a chance.
—Joe Rexrode
Team in 16 words: The fastest team in college basketball has a point guard who should strike fear in opponents.
Record: 22-11 (8-8 C-USA)
Coach: Steve Lutz (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Don McHenry (first-team All-CUSA)
Outlook: Coach Griff Aldrich is taking Longwood dancing for the second time in three seasons. The Lancers started the season on fire, winning 12 in a row at one stretch before the wheels fell off.
The Lancers started out Big South play 2-8. They lost 10 out of 12 at one point, but Aldrich was able to turn things around in the last three weeks of the regular season. They won four of their last six games before the start of the Big South Tournament, including wins over High Point, who won the league, and UNC Asheville.
What this group does best is control the controllables. The Lancers are really good on the glass on both ends of the floor. They force the second-most turnovers in the league. They excel at finding ways to create extra possessions, which is big because this is not a team that is known for being a major threat on the offensive end of the floor. This is a tough spot heading into the dance — the teams that Longwood will likely be matched up against are all much bigger and more athletic.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Coach Griff Aldrich is taking Longwood dancing for the second time in three seasons. The Lancers started the season on fire, winning 12 in a row at one stretch before the wheels fell off.
The Lancers started out Big South play 2-8. They lost 10 out of 12 at one point, but Aldrich was able to turn things around in the last three weeks of the regular season. They won four of their last six games before the start of the Big South Tournament, including wins over High Point, who won the league, and UNC Asheville.
What this group does best is control the controllables. The Lancers are really good on the glass on both ends of the floor. They force the second-most turnovers in the league. They excel at finding ways to create extra possessions, which is big because this is not a team that is known for being a major threat on the offensive end of the floor. This is a tough spot heading into the dance — the teams that Longwood will likely be matched up against are all much bigger and more athletic.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Coach Griff Aldrich is taking Longwood dancing for the second time in three seasons. The Lancers started the season on fire, winning 12 in a row at one stretch before the wheels fell off.
The Lancers started out Big South play 2-8. They lost 10 out of 12 at one point, but Aldrich was able to turn things around in the last three weeks of the regular season. They won four of their last six games before the start of the Big South Tournament, including wins over High Point, who won the league, and UNC Asheville.
What this group does best is control the controllables. The Lancers are really good on the glass on both ends of the floor. They force the second-most turnovers in the league. They excel at finding ways to create extra possessions, which is big because this is not a team that is known for being a major threat on the offensive end of the floor. This is a tough spot heading into the dance — the teams that Longwood will likely be matched up against are all much bigger and more athletic.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: Longwood’s dancing for the second time in three years, but an upset is an uphill battle.
Record: 21-13 (6-10 Big South)
Coach: Griff Aldrich (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Walyn Napper (second-team All-Big South)
Contributors: Jayna Bardahl, Paul Bourdett, Gene Clemons, Mark Cooper, Rob Dauster, Brad Evans, Jeff Goodman, Stewart Mandel, Marc Mazzoni, Mike Miller, Joe Rexrode, Mark Ross, Eric Single
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