NFL best bets for Conference Championship Weekend: An under and a potential spread if a line moves

There are just three games left in the NFL season which gives us limited opportunity to find value in the betting markets. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t any. After not having a bet during the Divisional round, we are back with at least one play during Conference Championship Weekend.

There won’t be many opportunities to bet in the traditional betting markets but we will have Super Bowl prop bets popping up over the next two weeks to give us some more action as well as a lot of fun with the unusual props that will be available.

Season record: 45-47-1, -3.35 units, -3.4% ROI

There is only one play for now, but keep checking back to this article or follow me on X/Twitter (@amock419) for any added plays before the games kickoff.

Conference Championship best bet

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens under 44.5 (-110)

While this pick does scare me because Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson can pop off at any moment, the Ravens’ ability to grind the clock away on the ground paired with the Chiefs’ lack of explosive plays — they won’t be playing backup linebackers this week like they did in Buffalo last week — should help. I think both defenses could have an advantage on Sunday. Pat Thuney’s status being up in the air doesn’t make life any easier for the best quarterback on the planet.

Worst price to bet: Under 44.5 (-115)

Model projection: Ravens 23.8, Chiefs 20.3

Line to watch

San Francisco 49ers -7 (-110)

If the Niners’ price comes back down before kick, they may be a late add for me. I think this is a could be a bad matchup for Detroit where they’re not able to bail themselves out in the red zone on defense all game against an elite opponent. If it doesn’t come down, I don’t hate the idea of teasing the 49ers down to -1.5. The only issue is that I don’t think the Chiefs/Ravens game is teaser-worthy so that means you’re left with an open teaser for the Super Bowl. If the Niners do cover, I think there will be an opportunity to tease the AFC Champ up to pair with the Niners from this week. As it stands, a full touchdown and extra point is too big to find an edge.

Model projection: 49ers 28.8, Lions 21.8

(Photo of Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen: Kara Durrette / Getty Images)

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