A nice little run here over the last few weeks for my NFL Projection Model. The model is up almost five units over the last three weeks, and while I don’t think it will keep up that pace, I think it has a good grasp on the current state of the market which should bode well for future success.
Last week’s record: 3-2, +1.30 units
Season record: 22-21-2, +1.00 units, +2.1% ROI
I’m a little late to start this week due to some family matters, so I definitely missed out on some value (Jets being one of those!). But I still think there’s some value to be had here. I’ve got a smaller card with only three total plays, totaling two units. I have a play or two I’m keeping an eye on and may add as the week progresses. Also, adding a teaser that I really like to count towards the teaser record.
As always, shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
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Best bets for NFL Week 10
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst price to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet.
Cincinnati Bengals +6 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens (to win 0.5 units)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens over 52.5 (-110) (to win 0.5 units)
As good as the Ravens offense has been, their pass defense has been atrocious. The Bengals and Joe Burrow should have no problem moving the ball. Now, the issue is that the Bengals have a terrible defense. So I’ll be taking both spread and total this game and reducing risk on both.
- Worst price(s) to bet: Bengals +6 (-110) and over 52.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams -1 (-110) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Rams are getting healthier on the offensive line after getting healthier at receiver the past few weeks. I think they’re a little underrated in the market at this point, and despite their small home-field advantage, I think they should be closer to laying a field goal here as I don’t think the Dolphins will have many answers to this hich-octane Rams offense.
- Worst price to bet: Rams -1.5 (-110)
Teaser
Season record: 1-2, -1.40 units
Overall record: 9-7, +0.40 units, +2.0% ROI
Chargers -1.5/Chiefs -2 (-120)
(Photo of Tua Tagovailoa: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
