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Just four races into the 2024 Formula One season, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff declared that the championship was over. With 20 races to spare, Max Verstappen had the title all sewn up.
“No one is going to catch Max this year,” Wolff said after the Japanese Grand Prix, which Verstappen had won by 12 seconds. “Basically, this season now is (about being) best of the rest.”
Less than five months later, Verstappen would give anything to have such reassurance over his success. For the sixth race in a row, he and Red Bull failed to win the race, recording a miserable sixth-place finish at Monza.
Despite still leading the drivers’ standings by 62 points, Verstappen warned post-race that barring a solution to his ongoing struggles with the Red Bull RB20 car, his and the constructors’ championship could be lost.
Monza was a sobering weekend for Red Bull, a new low in the current slump. Lando Norris is edging closer to Verstappen at the top, to the point McLaren needs to consider putting its full weight behind him. McLaren has all the momentum in the constructors’ race, sitting only eight points shy of Red Bull at the top.
With eight races remaining, F1 2024 is set up for a tantalizing run-in: Norris bearing down on Verstappen and Red Bull trying to respond. A year that once looked like a blowout has become one of the most open and exciting in the past decade. A truly remarkable season.
But Monza gave us a taste of how this year could go from simply ‘great’ to a classic.
Enter Ferrari.
Charles Leclerc’s victory was as unlikely as it was emotional. Snaring a podium finish was possible after qualifying, where Leclerc grabbed P4 on the grid. But it wasn’t until the final laps ticked down and Oscar Piastri’s charge began to fade that Leclerc’s one-stop strategy looked like it would pay off. A shocking win that sparked wild celebrations in the grandstands.
Post-race, the focus was on Ferrari’s decision to pit just once instead of twice like McLaren, which looked bound for a 1-2 in the second stint. However, McLaren team principal Andrea Stella highlighted Ferrari’s outright pace. The fact Leclerc could stick with Piastri and keep Norris behind before being undercut proved how quick the Ferrari was.
The performance turned the tide in Ferrari’s season. The team has looked lost since Leclerc’s win in Monaco at the end of May. The upgrade package that arrived in Spain to build on the Imola updates robbed Leclerc and teammate Carlos Sainz of their confidence, reintroducing the bouncing issue that most teams have long cured. After Silverstone, where he finished 14th, Leclerc said the run since Monaco had been “worse than a nightmare” as Ferrari rallied to remedy the issue.
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Spa provided a sliver of encouragement as Leclerc inherited pole from Verstappen and finished the race third after George Russell’s disqualification. Despite claiming he would need a “miracle” to score a podium from sixth at Zandvoort, Leclerc did exactly that, fending off Piastri with a superb final stint on worn tires to hold on for third.
The more significant step came at Monza. For Ferrari to be truly back in the mix with the leading teams was a good sign, having been comfortably fourth-fastest at points through the summer races. It was aided by another upgrade package that included a new floor targeted at curing the bouncing issue for good.
Sainz, who finished fourth and felt he would have had a chance at a podium had he not extended his first stint, thought the floor could be a decisive fix for the bouncing problem. He wanted to wait until Austin to be certain of that, noting the next two races in Baku and Singapore are on untraditional street circuits. If so, and if Ferrari could do everything perfectly, he saw no reason why it could not be on a par with McLaren.
“Today, I guess we’ve been the team scoring the most points, and that means that it is a big chance, not only for in general to get more wins through the year, but to fight for the constructors,” Sainz said, “which, if we manage to be quick also in other tracks, (will be) tight with McLaren and Red Bull.”
Red Bull’s stumbles have left the championship door wide open. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
In July, it seemed unthinkable. But while Red Bull’s dwindling form has allowed McLaren to close in, Ferrari has quietly made inroads over the past four weeks. It only sits 39 points behind Red Bull. Hardly insurmountable if Sunday is a sign of things to come.
Leclerc urged caution given Monza’s unique demands. “After Monaco, I think we’ve had the four worst races of the season because Monaco was so specific to our car at that time,” Leclerc said. “Monza is also a very specific and particular track.” The circuit-specific rear wing helped, but Leclerc thought the upgrade had provided a step toward McLaren.
“But I don’t think it’s enough to be the car to beat for the rest of the season on other tracks. I think we still have a lot of work to do, but I’m really happy anyway to have won here in Italy.”
Maybe not the car to beat, but right now, the margins are so fine that simply being in the mix is enough if you can make up for it with a superior strategy or the driver putting in a mighty effort on the track.
Without its dip in form after Monaco, Ferrari could be right there with Red Bull and McLaren. Yet the changing picture for Red Bull proves how quickly things can change. With eight races to go and six different race winners in the past seven races, the battle at the front feels more open than ever.
As much as the focus may be on McLaren’s hunt for Red Bull at the front, Monza reminded everyone to keep an eye on Ferrari. Work remains. It must harness some of the low-speed corner strength that led it to victory in Monaco around the streets of Baku and Singapore. It needs to cure its bouncing issues by Austin. Then, it can focus on reeling in Red Bull and overcoming McLaren.
In the last decade, the constructors’ championship fight has gone to the final round just once, in 2021, between Mercedes and Red Bull. That’s also the only year since 2012 where drivers from multiple teams went to a last-race title decider. The way things are heading, the chances of going to Abu Dhabi with something on the line are growing with each race. The more parties involved, the closer we get to ‘classic’ status for this season.
Wolff thought the season was a foregone conclusion by round four. By round 16, it’s normally evident which way the titles are going.
Not this year. F1’s ability to surprise both on and off the track through 2024 means taking anything for granted right now would be foolish.
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Top photo: HOCH ZWEI
