The NFL's offseason QB mysteries, plus Embiid's big decision

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QB Mystery Index: High-profile QBs, low-security jobs

It is officially NFL combine week, which means all your favorite college athletes will be shuttled to Indianapolis to have every aspect of their physique and psychology analyzed by prospective employers. The Pulse is on the ground in Indianapolis, too, though we won’t be conducting any drills. 

Yet more pressing NFL matters behoove us — particularly at the league’s most important position, quarterback. Alarmingly few teams have their QB situations sewn up. A large-scale overview of each mysterious path ahead, with some predictions: 

Fun! Sam Darnold
The journeyman-turned-star will be the headliner of NFL free agency once it officially begins March 10. We’ve talked plenty about his arc, but I remain mystified as to who will pay him and how many dollars are earmarked. Jets? Raiders? Short-term Vikings reunion? 

• Prediction: Darnold heads back to Minnesota on a high-value two-year deal to try to maximize a Super Bowl window while J.J. McCarthy still develops. 

Surprising! Matthew Stafford
It’s still hard to imagine Stafford on a new team this year, but there appears to be dissent between player and team over his future in Los Angeles. Stafford wants a nice new deal; the Rams are worried about his durability. All I know is Stafford balled out in the playoffs. He could be traded. 

• Prediction: The Giants forgo a QB of the future in this draft and instead trade for Stafford because the current regime needs wins pronto.

Sad, murky surprise: Kirk Cousins

The Falcons gave Cousins $100 million guaranteed last offseason and benched him before he completed a full season. I would be shocked if he returns to Atlanta as a backup to Michael Penix Jr., but his contract does have an out after this year, which could make him attractive as a short-term veteran presence for the QB-needy folks. 

• Prediction: The Rams use the return of the Stafford trade to draft a QB, but also sign Cousins as a stopgap, relying on this coaching staff’s ability to maximize talent. I’m making myself loopy. 

The lingering doubts: Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson
Rodgers is done in New York after a depressing tenure, and it’s easy to wonder if he’ll just retire. I wonder how many teams would actually be interested in his services. The same goes for Watson, who’s likely out for all of 2025 and is now an injury risk. He’s also just plain bad when he’s healthy enough to play. 

• Prediction: Watson’s out of football for 2025 and 2026, and the Browns move on. Rodgers mulls offers from the Titans and Browns but decides to retire … then teases a comeback over the next two years. 

The backburner: Derek Carr
Carr hasn’t been a home run in New Orleans, and I can attest that local sentiment around the quarterback is testy. New coach Kellen Moore inherits plenty of issues, with a decision on Carr at the top of his list. You have to assume they’re listening to trade offers — and let’s not forget that for a few weeks early last season, Carr was one of the best QBs in the league. 

• Prediction: The Jets trade a late-round pick for Carr, and Moore either finds a decent free agent (hello, Jameis Winston?) or picks a project. Moore will have plenty of leash here. 

Scoop City is also here in Indianapolis this week, and while seated in the finest plastic chairs the Detroit airport offers, Jacob Robinson gave me his hottest take: Cousins joins the Raiders, takes his chances in Chip Kelly’s new offense, while the Raiders also draft a theoretical quarterback of the future (Will Howard?). The full Matt Flynn-Russell Wilson template if you will. 

Expect a lot of takes on these topics this week, and we’ll have more coming from Indy. For now, catch up on what our NFL staff is looking for at the combine. Onward:

News to Know

Embiid’s uncertain future
Pain has overshadowed Joel Embiid’s 2024-25 season, both in the literal and figurative sense. Hampered by a lingering knee injury, he is clearly not himself this season — as most around him have admitted — and a report yesterday indicated the former MVP is considering knee surgery after rehab has thus far failed to improve his condition. Tony Jones argues — and I agree — that Embiid, 30, should just shut it down the rest of the way.

More news

• Shedeur Sanders won’t work out at the combine. Hm.
  
• Venus Williams won’t play at Indian Wells after all, despite receiving a wild-card entry.
• The Mystics traded All-Star Ariel Atkins to Chicago for the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.
  
• Arizona had to apologize for its students chanting “f— the Mormons” at BYU. Yeesh.
• Don’t count out Indiana for the NCAA Tournament — the Hoosiers are on the bubble after a big win over Purdue.
• The SheBelieves Cup final is set for Wednesday between the U.S. women’s national team and Japan after Michelle Cooper scored her first international goal for the Americans yesterday in a 2-1 win over Australia.

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Things You Need to See: Just watch this on loop

There is longevity, and then there is whatever Luka Modrić is doing at Real Madrid, where the 39-year-old club legend is still pulling off goals like this in huge matches:

LUKA MODRIC WITH A WORLDIE ON THE HALF VOLLEY FROM WELL OUTSIDE THE BOX TO GIVE REAL MADRID THE LEAD 😱😱😱 pic.twitter.com/tYtATWfw8p

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) February 23, 2025

Nothing more satisfying than an absolute screamer from distance. Madrid won 2-0 over Girona, which keeps them tied with Barcelona atop the La Liga table. And the goal came with Jude Bellingham in the stands while serving his “f— off” suspension. 

• Also in European soccer news: Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Manchester City extended their Premier League lead to 11 points. They are unstoppable, and City is officially in the mud.

Watch and Listen

📺 NCAAM: No. 5 Houston at No. 9 Texas Tech
9 p.m. ET on ESPN
These are the Big 12’s best two teams and both are potent come tourney time. Houston has won six straight since losing to this same Red Raiders team Feb. 1. Fun one. 

📺 NHL: Golden Knights at Kings
10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Can we continue the good hockey juju? Here’s a great matchup between division rivals in an important stretch for playoff positioning. 

Get tickets to games like these here.

🎧 The Athletic Football Show is answering your questions, such as who needs to e urgent in drafting a QB? Get it on Apple and Spotify now.

Pulse Picks

Another combine topic: Should Travis Hunter play wideout, cornerback or both? We asked current NFL stars for their opinions. 

Joe Rexrode has a fun column about the enduring controversy around fouling up 3 late. Analytics gurus won the argument … or did they?

Before the NHL, an all-Black team helped create modern hockey. Such a cool story. 

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Our story on the College Football Playoff overhaul set to happen in Year 2. 

Most-read on the website yesterday: Jayson Stark’s great explainer about the robot umps, a topic that’s not going away anytime soon.

(Top photo: Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)