Roki Sasaki’s first contract to play in the big leagues won’t be about just money. That’s because rules dictate that the 23-year-old right-hander from Japan is too young to sign anything other than a minor-league contract once he begins his tenure in the U.S. But once the sweepstakes begin for his services, Sasaki will likely prioritize stability, lifestyle, comfort and, according to league sources, a team’s track record with player development.
The last element seems to be a nod to Sasaki’s status as a young, but also extremely talented, pitcher.
“To be honest, he still has a lot to learn,” Chiba Lotta Mariners manager Masato Yoshii said early Saturday morning, as part of the Mariners’ statement announcing their intention to post Sasaki, widely considered one of the world’s best pitchers. “But I think he’ll be able to hone himself and improve his level in America.”
While many in the industry have pointed to the Los Angeles Dodgers as a favorite to land Sasaki, several other teams have prepared for an opportunity to land him. He is the No. 3-ranked player on The Athletic’s Top 40 MLB free agent big board. But unlike the only two players that rank ahead of him Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes — Sasaki is a financial fit for every team in the sport.
The New York Mets are believed to be in a decent position, league sources said, because they have a good feel for the market. That was evidenced not only by their signing of Japanese pitcher Kodai Senga, but also by how they have handled his transition to the big leagues, which has been perceived positively within the industry. The Mets also appear to have made a good impression during their pursuit last winter of Japanese free-agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Though Yamamoto ultimately chose the Dodgers, the Mets made a strong run at the pitcher with their presentation.
With Sasaki, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said he traveled to Japan in September to watch him pitch in person as a way of expressing a level of interest and respect. But he isn’t the only high-level executive to make that gesture.
The Philadelphia Phillies, according to a league source, remain another team worth watching in the sweepstakes. Last winter, team president Dave Dombrowski aggressively pursued Yamamoto in free agency, a signal of the franchise’s concerted efforts to build up a presence in the Pacific Rim.
The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and San Diego Padres are also among the teams that have extensively scouted and signed players from Asia in recent years. In the case of the Padres, Sasaki is believed to be like many other Japanese pitchers who hold a deep admiration for Yu Darvish.
Roki Sasaki DOMINATED on the mound in Japan 🔥 pic.twitter.com/O1jj6oXswy
— MLB (@MLB) November 9, 2024
The Dodgers, of course, loom as a sensible fit. They have Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. They have nice weather. They are closer to Japan. They have a world-class player development system. They just won the World Series. Also, some Dodgers officials have had Sasaki on their radar since he was in high school. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and Dodgers VP of player personnel Galen Carr watched Sasaki make a start in Japan in October.
Sasaki would be the kind of free agent any team should be aiming to add. Since he would have to go through the arbitration process, it would only make sense that he may end up placing a high value on stability and player development. Even some small-market teams can provide that, particularly those with cutting-edge pitching labs.
It’s not clear if Sasaki intends to meet with teams in person, but it would only make sense for him to do so. He was in Miami for the World Baseball Classic in 2023, but beyond the tournament, he has yet to spend time in the U.S.
Sasaki has long desired an opportunity to pitch in MLB. Sasaki finished strong this past season and produced a 2.35 ERA in 111 innings with 129 strikeouts and just 32 walks, though he experienced an oblique issue, and what league sources called a bout with shoulder fatigue.
In four NPB seasons, Sasaki had a 2.10 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. With a 100 mph fastball and a devastating splitter, Sasaki profiles as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.
“He reminds me of Jacob deGrom,” one industry source said. “He’d develop into a No. 1.”
It’s almost certain that Sasaki will pitch in the big leagues in 2025. But as of Saturday night, league sources said it remained unknown precisely when the Japanese club would officially make Sasaki available to sign. Exactly when Sasaki officially gets posted will determine whether he falls into the 2024 or 2025 international amateur class — a distinction that could shape his market and impact his immediate earnings.
When a player enters the posting system used for players coming from Japan to the U.S., he has a 45-day window to sign with a major-league team. Dec. 15 is the last day that an NPB player can be posted, a league source said. That’s also the date that the current international signing period ends. At this stage, many teams have spent their international bonus pool money.
However, once next year’s signing period opens on Jan. 15, teams will once again have their full bonus pools available to them. So Sasaki could wait until after that point to sign, which might lead to a bigger initial salary for himself and a larger posting fee for his team in Japan.
Sasaki’s situation resembles the beginning of Ohtani’s career. Before his monster deal with the Dodgers last winter, Ohtani spent six seasons with the Los Angeles Angels after initially receiving a $2.3 million bonus. Since it won’t be a bidding war to obtain Sasaki’s services, other things beyond money will matter.
In the statement announcing the Marines’ decision to post him, Sasaki said he was “very grateful.”
“I will do my best to work my way up from my minor (league) contract to become the best player in the world, so that I will have no regrets in my one and only baseball career,” Sasaki said in the statement, “and so that I can live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me this time.”
GO DEEPER
Roki Sasaki has top-shelf stuff. How would it translate to Major League Baseball?
(Photo: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
