This Week in Mets: How the Mets’ recent winning streak channeled 2022

“All I wish is, that it may be a lesson to the world, ‘to let people tell their stories their own way.’”
— “The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman,” Laurence Sterne

Sunday aside, the New York Mets have looked like a legitimate baseball team for more than two weeks now. Dating to their doubleheader comeback against the Detroit Tigers — thanks to Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning heroics — the team has won 12 of 16 and played like one of the National League’s best teams.

In fact, what the Mets have looked like has been the 2022 version of themselves. In winning five consecutive series, they’ve played the kind of winning baseball that propelled them to 101 wins that season. What does channeling 2022 mean? Let’s examine.

The offense is finding holes, getting on base and delivering in the clutch.

Since the Mets arrived in Cincinnati on April 5, they own a top-five offense in baseball. They led the majors in on-base percentage in that time (entering Sunday), and they’re fourth in batting average on balls in play.

In 2022, I often looked at the same basic characteristics that defined the Mets’ offense — how little they were striking out, how relatively rarely they hit home runs, how reliant they were on batting average on balls in play and with runners in scoring position. It is not exactly the most popular or sustainable way of building an offense, but when it works, it’s quite enjoyable to watch.

Last year, the Mets executed a lot of the fundamentals of hitting better: They walked more, they barreled the ball more, they hit more home runs. But they also scored a lot fewer runs, in large part because their BABIP was well below the league average and they didn’t hit well with runners in scoring position.

So far, this year looks a lot like 2022. (The numbers for 2024 are entering Sunday.)

It helps, of course, that the Mets’ lineup has been much deeper this year compared with last. The bottom third of their order has generally included the likes of Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and Harrison Bader, who have all performed above the league average (and by a large margin in the last two-plus weeks).

Though I expressed concerns about the sustainability of this approach in 2022, I find it too early to do the same right now. Power is usually suppressed in April — and the Mets have played in some especially chilly home weather — and New York should add J.D. Martinez to its lineup soon. (The loss of Francisco Alvarez, of course, mitigates a chunk of that addition.) And the Mets are scoring enough at this point that even a regression to the mean in BABIP would leave them above the league average in scoring.

The starters are doing enough to keep the team in the game, most of the time.

Yes, New York’s starters are still not going deep into games, with just four starts of at least six innings all season, and that is likely to become a problem eventually. In the meantime, though, they’ve had just five starts all season in which they’ve allowed more than three runs. Any pitching coach will tell you: They usually prefer five scoreless innings over seven frames in which you give up a few runs.

And the Mets have gotten reasonable production from their depth starters. Filling in for Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill and (mostly) Jose Buttó have combined for a 1.77 ERA.

The bullpen is carrying the pitching staff.

Here are the season-long ERAs of the seven relievers the Mets have used the most: 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 1.17, 1.69, 2.16, 3.86. That’s a combined mark of 1.36.

So when those starters leave the game in the fifth or sixth with the Mets still in it, they’re winning a lot of bullpen contests. Eight of New York’s 12 wins this season have gone to relief pitchers — Reed Garrett leads them with three — and during the recent six-game winning streak, the Mets were tied or trailing in the seventh inning four times.

The exposition

The Mets dropped their Sunday finale in Los Angeles 10-0, preventing them from earning their first road three-game sweep of the Dodgers since 1989. Two of three in Chavez Ravine ain’t bad, leaving New York 12-9 and in third place in the National League East, three behind the Atlanta Braves.

The Star(ling) was out in LA 🌟 @Delta | #LGM pic.twitter.com/HRKJsRlzZy

— New York Mets (@Mets) April 21, 2024

The San Francisco Giants split a four-game home series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. At 10-13, San Francisco is in fourth in the NL West, 2 1/2 games behind the Dodgers.

The St. Louis Cardinals were shut out Sunday and swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers. (Psh, who lets that happen, amirite?) St. Louis’ 9-13 record places it once again in last place in the NL Central. The Cardinals host Arizona for three from Monday through Wednesday before traveling to Queens.

The pitching possibles

at San Francisco

LHP Jose Quintana (1-1, 3.05 ERA) v. RHP Keaton Winn (1-3, 4.09 ERA)
RHP Luis Severino (2-1, 2.14) v. RHP Logan Webb (2-1, 2.93)
LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.12) v. LHP Blake Snell (0-3, 11.57)

v. St. Louis

RHP Jose Buttó (0-0, 1.65) v. RHP Miles Mikolas (1-3, 6.49)
RHP Adrian Houser (0-2, 7.45) v. RHP Sonny Gray (2-1, 1.04)
LHP Jose Quintana v. RHP Lance Lynn (1-0, 2.18)

Three questions with a beat writer

In our first 2024 edition of “Three questions with a beat writer,” let’s chat with Andrew Baggarly, who covers the Giants for The Athletic. Read Andrew on how the Giants are better equipped to maximize Logan Webb’s strengths this year.

What’s clicked for Michael Conforto?

It didn’t take long last season before Conforto realized he’d have to overcome more than his surgically repaired shoulder after missing all of 2022. He was playing 10-15 pounds heavier and his legs were gone by the end of May. Conforto came to camp a bit lighter and confident he’ll be able to maintain his stamina better. His bat speed appears much improved and he’s clearly a more confident hitter.

Is it too early to be concerned about Blake Snell?

Well, the best way to answer this is to go back and look at what he did in April of last season. He was 0-4 with a 5.48 ERA in five starts, and that was after having a normal ramp-up period in spring training. Then, of course, he went on to win the NL Cy Young Award. The Giants knew not to expect too much from Snell for at least a half-dozen starts when they signed him March 19. They also committed $31 million to him this season (plus the downside risk of another $31 million if he gets hurt and opts in for 2025), they lurched past the first luxury tax threshold for the first time since 2017, and they gave up a compensatory draft pick — all for a player who might be with them for one season if he opts out. They also played a pitcher short for the first three series of the season while carrying him on the active roster when he had no utility. So yeah, the Giants have a lot riding on Snell’s being superlative for those last 25 starts or so.

How has Jung Hoo Lee compared with the Giants’ expectations so far?

In many respects, he has exceeded expectations. The zone awareness and contact skills seamlessly traveled from KBO to the big leagues. He’s in the top quartile in sprint speed and looks to be at least average in center field with the potential to be quite a bit better as he familiarizes himself with major-league ballparks. Teams are running on his arm, but how many center fielders have a cannon out there? Lee is not someone who will carry a lineup — he doesn’t have enough power to do that — but he’s already made adjustments to use the left (backside) more often while showing excellent knowledge of game situations. The Giants have every reason to believe they’ll continue to see steady growth from him.

Another Jung Hoo Lee home run means another electrifying Korean broadcast call 🗣️🎙️ pic.twitter.com/qMECSNNWSp

— SFGiants (@SFGiants) April 21, 2024

Deep thoughts

Friday, the Mets revealed the City Connect jerseys they’ll wear for all but one home Saturday game the rest of the season. I examined the design process earlier. Here are some leftover opinions on the design:

• I find my opinions on a team’s City Connect jersey often derive inversely from how I feel about the team’s regular uniforms. Hence, I love the Miami Marlins’ City Connect jerseys because their usual ones don’t work for me. I really dislike the Giants’ City Connects — we’ll see them Tuesday night in San Francisco — because their regular uniforms are so solid. Given the Mets’ very strong set of jerseys, the bar for the City Connect was always going to be high.
• The Mets took the City Connect mandate more seriously than some other teams. Whereas Atlanta, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and others stayed within their usual color palettes, the Mets didn’t want these jerseys to be conflated with a typical alternate jersey. That meant opting for dark gray and purple over any blue and orange, and it meant dismissing nostalgic design elements like the 1980s racing stripes.
• That’s one thing I don’t like about the City Connect jerseys, in general. The NHL had its Reverse Retro series and the NBA’s 2022 City Edition uniforms combined elements from earlier jerseys. A Mets jersey in that vein — say, in black with the 1987 script New York in orange and racing stripes down the side? — would be my preference for this series.
• That leads back to the No. 1 rule of uniforms: Don’t expect them to be something they were never meant to be. The City Connects are meant to be sold to younger fans. They’re not meant to win over someone who loves pinstripes at home and gray on the road.
• That’s also why they chose “NYC” over “Queens.” It just makes for a larger target demographic for merchandise.
• The Mets get to do this again in three years, and I wonder whether they’d be more willing to narrow the focus to “Queens” then.
• One small comment from my conversation with Andy Goldberg and James Benesh that stood out to me: They mentioned the Mets opted to stick with the black alternates this year, which pushed the City Connects from possibly being worn every Friday night to being worn Saturday (and more often during the day). It made me wonder whether perhaps next year the franchise would come to a different decision and either redo or eliminate the black home alternate, given that there’s now an additional dark home uniform.
• Eliminating the black alternate would open up the possibility of creating a road alternate for 2025. Right now, the Mets have four uniforms they can wear at home and only one for the road.
• All that said and without seeing them on the field, I do think these rank in the top half of City Connect uniforms. Going with white pants over dark ones — Nike relayed that players haven’t loved the dark pants in other sets because of the heat — makes this a much better, more traditional look than it might otherwise have been.

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

• Francisco Alvarez will undergo surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb. Alvarez has told teammates he should miss roughly six to eight weeks, putting his return sometime in June. However, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Injury Ledger, over the last two seasons, four players have undergone surgery to repair a torn UCL in their thumb, and three missed between nine and 12 weeks (Darick Hall, Gilberto Celestino and Jake Marisnick). The fourth, Brett Baty, missed the final 38 days of the 2022 regular season, and his status for a postseason return that October was in jeopardy. That means anything before the All-Star break is probably a good outcome for Alvarez.
• Brooks Raley hit the injured list Sunday with that inflammation in his throwing elbow. There was no structural damage shown on an MRI, though, so Raley could be back shortly after the minimum 15 days.
• J.D. Martinez was back in minor-league action Sunday with Low-A St. Lucie. He’s now slated to DH for Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday and Wednesday and could debut with the Mets as soon as Friday.
• Sean Reid-Foley pitched on consecutive nights for Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday and Thursday. That was the last hurdle for the right-hander, and he could be activated in San Francisco.
• Tylor Megill threw his first bullpen session Friday.
• Minor-league outfielder Drew Gilbert is expected to miss about four more weeks as he recovers from a hamstring strain.

Minor-league schedule

Triple-A: Syracuse v. Columbus (Cleveland)
Double-A: Binghamton at New Hampshire (Toronto)
High-A: Brooklyn v. Wilmington (Washington)
Low-A: St. Lucie at Daytona (Cincinnati)

Last week in Mets

• What the injury to Alvarez means
• Inside the design process on the City Connect jerseys
• A one-night diary inside the minor-league system
• Reed Garrett has been a revelation in the bullpen. That’s the kind of thing good teams do
• How Carlos Mendoza kept his cool during the 0-5 start
• Edwin Díaz isn’t worried about a dip in velocity
• Tyrone Taylor has showcased the Mets’ outfield depth
• More on the timelines for Martinez and Kodai Senga
• This Week in Mets: Jose Buttó makes another statement

Trivia time

The Mets haven’t swept a series of at least three games in Los Angeles since 1989. That’s their second-longest road sweep-less streak against a National League opponent. What NL team have the Mets not swept on the road since 1988, the same year that team’s stadium hosted Super Bowl XXII?

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

(Photo of Harrison Bader celebrating a home run with Pete Alonso: Brad Penner / USA Today)