The next phase of conference realignment is a tug of war.
Can the rebuilding Pac-12 convince the likes of Memphis, Tulane and maybe a few others to come west and join their new conference? Or can the AAC convince its current members to stay and add a school like Air Force into the fold and strengthen itself? That’s what’s on the board. The Pac-12 is attempting to go big, metaphorically, to create the best non-Power 4 conference, while the AAC is trying to hold onto that mantle.
The Athletic spoke with more than a dozen people involved in the discussions, and no one sees an easy move, making it difficult to predict how it all shakes out. No school is sure what another will do, and they’re all trying to set up calls to find out what each other are thinking ahead of conference calls on Wednesday. It’s up to the leadership of both conferences to convince a handful of schools of their vision.
What are those visions and plans? Here’s what I’m hearing.
Pac-12
The poaching of the Mountain West Four — Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State — came together very quickly last week and was kept to a small inner circle to prevent leaks that could unravel the plans at the last minute. People in the Mountain West were aware something was afoot but could not stop the four from leaving to join Oregon State and Washington State.
Having created some momentum, the Pac-12 is on to Step 2 in its effort to create a Best of the Rest conference. Having grabbed the top of the Mountain West, it wants the top of the American Athletic Conference, and it wants to do it as soon as possible in order to begin real conversations with prospective TV partners. (The league needs at least eight members by July 1, 2026.)
Multiple sources briefed on the league’s thinking tell The Athletic that Memphis and Tulane are the Pac-12’s top targets. While conversations are being had, it’s not clear the two are sold yet on the league’s speculative plan. AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti was at last Saturday’s Tulane-Oklahoma football game in Norman and was in Memphis on Tuesday for a previously scheduled visit.
“The speculation is going to be speculation,” he told local reporters. “There never seems to be any point where people are spending more effort building than they are maybe trying to tear down. As we look at the landscape, there’s an opportunity right now to continue to build on this stuff. I feel great about the membership right now, especially because of the transparency in the conversations that we’re having.”
Both Memphis and Tulane have invested heavily in athletics and found recent success in football. The Tigers, who reached the 2019 Cotton Bowl, have upgraded their on-campus facilities and are in the process of upgrading Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium with help from taxpayer money. The department has a $25 million NIL investment from FedEx over the next five years, and the football team is 3-0 coming off a win at Florida State. Tulane won the Cotton Bowl two years ago and hired away Troy’s successful head coach Jon Sumrall after Willie Fritz left for Houston. The school is also working on building a practice bubble.
UTSA, North Texas, South Florida and Texas State are among the other central/eastern options the Pac-12 is looking into, with UTSA considered the favorite among the group. Getting into Texas is especially important for certain Pac-12 schools, and each prospective member has its own selling point. UTSA’s plan to merge with UT Health San Antonio will be a huge boost for the school and its resources — the kind of move school presidents like — and it’s located in a big city that has supported UTSA football. USF is now a member of the Association of American Universities, a prestigious academic group, with working plans for an on-campus stadium, but it may just be too far away on the map.
Back west, UNLV was left out of the initial Mountain West move. Rebels football is having its most (and only) success in decades, now ranked in a major poll for the first time, but the question is whether the school has enough support and investment that will continue past this moment in time. The belief is that UNLV can ultimately split from fellow university system member Nevada for a conference move if needed.
“They are two very distinct schools with two very distinct communities, media markets, trajectories,” system regent Heather Brown told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “I do not think, under any circumstance, they should be considered a package deal. It doesn’t make sense.”
The Pac-12’s availability as an option for UNLV and Air Force is more likely if the conference strikes out on its eastern swing attempts. Adding three football members to get to nine would make football scheduling simple with eight conference games. Although Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes told The Athletic on Saturday that football is a requirement for members, other sources briefed on the league’s thinking believe that’s just for this next step, not ruling out the possibility that the league would try to add a school like Gonzaga to what could be a strong basketball conference.
GO DEEPER
What the Pac-12’s raid of the Mountain West means for college basketball
What the Pac-12 is selling these schools is still an unknown commodity. While popular college sports valuation consultant Navigate can project numbers, the conference is not working off a normal media rights deal. The league will have to go to market to figure out exactly what it is worth.
Some sources familiar with the league’s thinking hope to land somewhere between $10 to $15 million per school per year, while other sources call that number premature and say it depends on who else joins. That number would be up from the Mountain West’s estimated $6 million annual per-school payouts from TV and the AAC’s $7 million for original members like Memphis and Tulane, though recent AAC additions like UTSA make less than that.
Industry sources believe TNT Sports could be a potential TV partner to watch for the Pac-12, having recently picked up sub-licensed College Football Playoff games and some Mountain West games for truTV as it handles the fallout of losing the NBA. The CW already has a partnership with the two-member Pac-12 and could look to expand that. What role will streaming play? The old Pac-12 had an offer from Apple that wasn’t enough to keep members from fleeing to the Big Ten and Big 12, but it could be part of a package. The Pac-12 has pitched its Pac-12 Enterprises production studio as a revenue-driver and as help for would-be broadcasters.
The estimated $111 million the Pac-12 stands to owe the Mountain West ($17 million in exit fees for each school, plus $43 million in poaching fees from the Pac-12/MW scheduling agreement) could become a point of contention. Some sources around the situation believe the Pac-12 will try to negotiate that number down in some way, while others are dubious it can be done. AAC defections would also owe exit fees likely in the tens of millions of dollars. While the Pac-12 can use its estimated $250 million war chest to fill in gaps, that money won’t last forever. Around $65 million was initially earmarked for rebuilding, with the rest going to operations.
Barnes said Saturday that the six Pac-12 schools have signed a “long-term” grant of rights to lock themselves together. What they’re locked into remains to be seen. That unknown is what has AAC schools cautious about making a jump. But if one or two does, that would increase pressure on another to not be left behind.
“People are being very calculated and want more information,” one AAC administrator said.
AAC
Pernetti was hired to the commissioner job in April, meaning the same presidents making these realignment decisions are the ones who trusted his leadership enough to hire him. The idea of a rebuilding Pac-12 targeting the AAC is also not a surprising concept. The conference had talked about this possibility for months.
The AAC is targeting Air Force as a potential addition, according to sources briefed on the conference’s strategy. Talks of adding the Falcons have happened for years, including in 2021 when former AAC commissioner Mike Aresco looked to add a western wing of his own with Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State — almost the reverse of what’s happening now. With Army football joining the AAC this year, the draw of having all three service academies is obvious. Air Force’s TV rights also aren’t locked into a TV deal separate from a conference like the Army-Navy Game with CBS, meaning Air Force football could slide in and be of value to ESPN, which owns all AAC rights.
The question is what happens to Air Force’s other sports. The Falcons are a full member of the Mountain West, but Army and Navy are football-only members in the AAC, playing most other sports in the Patriot League. The AAC could take many of Air Force’s other sports, but if it doesn’t, the West Coast Conference or some combination involving the WAC, Summit or other leagues could be a possibility. Air Force already has two sports in the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation, for example.
The AAC’s pitch to keep the likes of Tulane, Memphis and others is multi-pronged. It has a long-term TV deal with ESPN into the early 2030s, providing stability and a lot more exposure. That deal, which has been the most lucrative among the Group of 5, has a look-in clause coming up within the next two years, sources say.
“That’s our best thing going, our deal with ESPN,” said one AAC source.
Travel would be easier staying in the AAC, with many AAC schools sitting in major cities and many alumni on the East Coast — Tulane has a large alumni base in New York. Pernetti has also injected an energy and forward-looking approach since taking over. He’s been open about taking on a private equity or capital investment, which would provide a financial boost to schools.
“All of these things are growth opportunities for the conference,” Pernetti said Tuesday in Memphis. “What’s good about the membership is they bought into that vision and feel good about what those opportunities can do to accelerate investment and the success we’re having.”
The message from the AAC is that prospective Pac-12 members don’t need to rush into a decision, while the Pac-12 hopes to move fast.
Mountain West
Down to eight football-playing members, the Mountain West is still assessing its next steps — most notably, how much money it can expect to receive from the Pac-12. But with schools like UNLV and Air Force still eyeing moves, it’s a precarious situation.
Sources familiar with discussions believe UTEP and Texas State are potential targets, as FBS members who wouldn’t have to make a transition. Sam Houston might be an option, too. New Mexico State is in the region, but the school is going through a presidential search, and New Mexico may not favor adding the Aggies. FCS Tarleton, located in Stephenville, is another potential Texas option. The school just recently completed its transition from Division II but is growing rapidly and has a lot of money at its disposal.
The question is what kind of Mountain West these potential additional schools would be walking into. Texas State likely prefers the Sun Belt where it sits (or a possible future AAC invite), while Conference USA has a grant of rights that makes an exit fee larger, the only G5 league with such an agreement.
“If (these) eight can stay together and we can add some teams, we can really be a good league,” Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman told in-house media last Friday. “If (the Pac-12 can’t add AAC schools), it’s likely they’re going to circle back to the Mountain West, and we could lose an additional member or two members. So that’s why expansion is very, very important.”
— The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman and Andrew Marchand contributed reporting.
(Photo: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
