Why signing Trent Frederic before free agency is a risk for Edmonton Oilers

Since the summer of 2015, the year Connor McDavid was drafted, the Edmonton Oilers have enjoyed much success in signing top free agents to long-term deals.

There have been exceptions, notably Zach Hyman, but as a rule, those big July deals for veteran wingers have quickly turned into albatross headaches for team management.

Some, like Milan Lucic, never did get off the ground as signature moves. Peter Chiarelli, general manager in 2016, had already traded for a more effective player with similar skills (Patrick Maroon), and Lucic was unable to deliver the expected dividends with Edmonton.

It’s a theme that runs through recent Oilers history, from Lucic to Evander Kane. Oilers management has an established history of signing prominent forwards with size to long-term deals. These men have heavy minutes over many years on their resumes, so they are more famous for what they’ve done than what they will do in the future.

Lucic left his best hockey back in Boston with the Bruins, while Kane was exceptional upon arrival in Edmonton, but that top level of performance has been dulled by a series of significant injuries.

There’s a chance for Stan Bowman to turn it all around this summer. If he signs Trent Frederic to a three-year contract before July 1, while dealing Kane, would that represent a surer path to success than Lucic (procured by Chiarelli) or Kane (signed by Ken Holland)?

Let’s have a look.

Lessons of the past: Lucic

The Bruins made the draft investment in Lucic, enjoyed his best seasons, traded him to the Los Angeles Kings in 2015 and received enormous value for a second-round (No. 50 in 2006) pick.

The Kings paid dearly, but walked him at the end of the 2015-16 season. Edmonton signed Lucic to a long-term deal and the results were poor immediately. In Boston, he averaged 20-29-49 per 82 games. In his three Edmonton seasons, his boxcars per 82 games (13-22-35) came with a deep dive in five-on-five scoring. It was not a successful signing and required a massive overpay to move the contract to the Calgary Flames.

Looking at Lucic before his Edmonton arrival, the numbers were strong in both Boston and Los Angeles. His time in Edmonton saw nothing rhyme.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

It’s unfair to compare performances across teams, but Lucic played a significant amount of time with McDavid in Edmonton. When away from the captain in his Edmonton years, Lucic’s line posted a 45 percent goal share at five-on-five. The results weren’t close to the contract.

Chiarelli had solved the enforcer issue with Maroon, but remained focused on Lucic.

Current experience: Kane

In the case of Kane, the early production with Edmonton was top drawer. He scored 22 goals in 43 games during the 2021-22 season, effectively giving the Oilers’ top line a spark with real sustain. Comparing his final three seasons with the San Jose Sharks with his time in Edmonton, Kane’s five-on-five (scoring and outscoring) production has enjoyed reasonable sustain.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Kane’s time with the Oilers has been productive when he has been in the lineup. As with Lucic, Kane enjoyed a push when playing with McDavid upon arrival, but by year three (2023-24), he was playing more often away from the captain and helped deliver a 48 percent goal share (52 percent expected).

The Kane minutes in Edmonton at five-on-five have been materially better than the Lucic minutes during his time with the team. We don’t know if Kane can help in the playoffs, but the numbers are somewhat hopeful despite the player losing an entire season.

Possible future: Frederic

The Oilers acquired Frederic at the deadline, and he’s been hurt for almost the entire time. His one game with Edmonton was cut short by the exacerbation of an injury and he’s unlikely to appear early in the playoffs.

Fans are upset at the price paid for a veteran who has yet to contribute. He’s also in his walk year and there are no indications that the player would thrive in the Edmonton environment.

Should Bowman sign Frederic, is there any indication that he would stay healthy and perform at a productive level?

Here are the numbers from his past three seasons, broken out individually to give an indication of progress or decline.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The 2024-25 offensive numbers are out of time with the two previous seasons. Injury and aging out of the Bruins roster were two contributing factors, but Boston management was also willing to trade the player. That’s a tell.

The numbers suggest Frederic should recover offensively and the expected goals ran in place year over year. Signing Frederic is a reasonable bet based on his numbers, and he was healthy during his time with Boston (save for this season).

Lucic was 28 when he signed in Edmonton. He was a model of consistency, staying in the lineup for years. Between the fall of 2013 and the spring of 2016, he missed four regular-season games in three seasons. However, the wear and tear on Lucic’s body, due to his style of play, contributed greatly to his hitting a wall relatively early in his career.

Kane was 30 when he arrived in Edmonton. Like Lucic, he played heavy minutes in the rugged parts of the game for over a decade. Unlike Lucic, he has been effective when healthy, and his five-on-five scoring rates are consistent with the Oilers. During the 2023-24 season, when skating five-on-five with McDavid, he scored 1.21 goals per 60 and 2.02 points per 60. That’s excellent production.

Kane’s offence did fade when playing on a depth line, but the role he plays on the team is as a complementary scorer who can play with high-end skill while being deployed in an enforcer role. Kane has provided that for Edmonton when healthy.

Frederic the player

Unlike Lucic and Kane, Frederic has spent much of his time as a middle-six forward, playing on the second and third lines with Boston. Puck IQ measures quality of competition and clocked Frederic as a forward who has never played 31 percent or more versus elite competition.

That’s a step below the minutes faced by Lucic and Kane in their peak seasons.

Frederic enters free agency with a $2.3 million AAV and the expectation of a significant raise on his next deal. He’s 27, and this season’s ankle issue aside, has been fairly healthy. The nature of his role on the Bruins suggests he will wear better than Lucic, and the Oilers may see him as a younger, less expensive version of Warren Foegele (who they walked a year ago).

If Kane is dealt, the role of No. 2 left winger would be an open competition. Vasily Podkolzin would be the favourite based on deployment this season, but Frederic might be able to slide on to the second line and have success.

He was effective with the Bruins, playing alongside names like Taylor Hall, Charlie Coyle, Morgan Geekie and Pavel Zacha.

If the Oilers can sign Frederic to a deal that’s well shy of Kane’s final deal, and make that contract three years in length, Bowman will have a younger winger who can push for playing time on the skill lines and contribute as an outscorer.

Edmonton will give up Kane’s considerable ability to intimidate opponents and play a complementary role on a skill line. Kane’s injury issues, combined with his age, suggest this kind of move is likely over the summer. Frederic may be the target.

(Photo: Robert Hanashiro / Imagn Images)