The trade winds started blowing earlier than usual during this 2024-25 NHL season, and they should only pick up speed with general managers set to gather for meetings early next week in Toronto.
We recently put out the call for mailbag questions, and unsurprisingly many of you readers were wondering about players who could be on the move. There were also queries about collective bargaining talks, load management, Kirill Kaprizov’s next contract and dueling milestone chases, among other topics.
As always, thank you for taking the time to read, engage and respond.
Let’s go!
(Note: Some questions are edited for length and clarity.)
If I remember correctly, when Vancouver bought out Oliver Ekman-Larsson in 2023, Arizona was penalized by having one less retention spot for the duration of the buyout. Since we’re supposed to operate as if Utah is a brand-new team, did that penalty carry over? — John S.
Not only do you remember correctly, but I can confirm that the retention spot tied to the OEL buyout through 2030-31 was transferred to Utah HC as part of the Coyotes purchase. They’re also on the hook for the cap charge associated with that buyout, too. Essentially, Utah purchased all of Arizona’s existing hockey assets in the April sale and relocation — including staff, contracts, players, draft picks … and even salary retention commitments. It was only the Coyotes branding and trademarks that were declared inactive and left behind with that move.
Do you ever see the NHL adopting a model much like the NFL and NBA where officials explain their on-ice calls? It seems that while there may be internal accountability, the perception from the paying customer is that it is not there. — John I.
First let me declare my bias: As someone paid to attend and report on NHL games, I would love for this to be the case — particularly during the Stanley Cup playoffs, when the stakes of every call made or missed are so monumental. But, alas, I don’t see anything changing in the near term. If anything, we’re probably going in the opposite direction. When I first broke into the business, referees would occasionally be required to take postgame questions from a pool reporter — basically one reporter designated to get quotes and information on behalf of the entire media contingent — but that practice has since disappeared.
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The NHL culture has not seemed to adopt the load-management methods of the NBA, but a physical team like Florida that has played a lot of hockey recently may be a prime example of why it should. What are your thoughts on the Cats or any other team resting certain players throughout the year to keep them fresher for the playoffs? — Amir C.
We’ve seen NHL teams start to do this in small ways, especially with goaltenders, who rarely play on consecutive nights as part of a back-to-back set of games nowadays. Sometimes veteran skaters get cycled in and out on a similar basis, too. However, I’ve spoken with NHL players about this concept on a number of occasions over the years, and the vast majority of them don’t like it. They see it as antithetical to the culture of a sport where they’re trained to gut it out and celebrated for doing so. NHL teams are also restricted to carrying a roster of no more than 23 players, so there aren’t enough extra bodies on hand for any of them to enact a comprehensive load-management program.
Would it make sense for the Panthers to get Matthew Tkachuk and other stars some rest after their long playoff run? (Jim Rassol / USA Today)
Any trade talks around Trevor Zegras? Seems like a change of scenery is needed. — Shane L.
The goals and points have certainly not been there for Zegras this season, but word out of the organization is that the effort and attention to detail have been. While it’s possible trade discussions will pick up around him again at some point, it doesn’t seem like a priority or a serious thought right now.
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Is the primary trade target for the Leafs down the road a 3C? If so, is it a pure rental scenario or could you see them dealing a first or prospect for a younger C with term? — Dustyn K.
At the risk of putting the cart before the horse here, I think it’s fair to say that Toronto will likely look to strengthen itself down the middle before the March 7 trade deadline passes. Of course, one significant injury at another position between then and now could always shift internal priorities. As for whether it’ll be a rental or a player with term they’re targeting, rentals tend to be more readily available during the NHL’s main trading period. But it’s worth noting that the Leafs have far more flexibility than normal to consider players signed through next season with a couple of big cap hits due to expire this summer should something come up.
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How do I interpret Steven Stamkos’ plus-minus stats? Feels with any context (he’s been on competitive teams), it’s not flattering for a highly paid player. Why isn’t this stat more respected given the large sample size it covers? — Shane A.
The main reason plus-minus has fallen out of favor as a way to measure performance is other stats that better capture what’s happening on the ice have come along. Plus-minus aggregates who is on for goals scored for and against at even strength. There’s some use in measuring that, naturally, but the stat has serious limitations; for example, it doesn’t account for who was at fault for a goal or quantify which players are consistently creating the types of chances most likely to result in future goals. As for Stamkos, in particular, his biggest weapon is his shot. That’s best deployed as part of a power play, and goals scored during that game state aren’t reflected in plus-minus totals.
With the Habs’ recent struggles and fans calling for head coach Marty St. Louis’ job … Do they need more veteran leadership? They have older players but do you think there are enough leaders in the locker room? — Michael B.
They could probably use a couple more veterans, sure, but what they really need are more effective veteran players. The Canadiens already have more than $16 million tied up in Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson and Christian Dvorak this season, and they’re getting minimal production from those veterans. They’re also somewhat exposed on the blue line, where they’ve introduced a number of young players to the lineup in the past couple of seasons. Another steadying presence at that position would go a long way toward steadying the ship.
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Kirill Kaprizov: Over/under $14 million per season on his next contract, and why? — Bryce M.
Give me the over. What we have here is a perfect confluence of events for a potential unrestricted free agent in 2026. Not only is Kaprizov off to the best start of his career this season, but he’s also playing in a rising-cap environment for a team that’s never previously had a true superstar and an owner in Craig Leipold who is promising he won’t be outbid. Back up the Brink’s truck! Kirill the Thrill couldn’t possibly have more leverage here. One other thing worth noting: Oilers star Leon Draisaitl signed his $14 million per season extension with the NHL’s salary cap ceiling sitting at $88 million. That’s projected to climb to the $97 million range by the time Kaprizov’s next deal kicks in for 2026-27.
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If you were a 13-1 small-market team with better but not yet perfect attendance, how would you handle in-season trades? Winnipeg is a good team but could use another top-six center and some size on the back end. Does it benefit TNSE to make a splash this winter? — Scott B.
Given all of the circumstances you’ve laid out here, I would expect the Jets to go all in on their group this season. There are a number of people around the league who view them as a true contender. And to be fair to Jets ownership and management, they’ve never previously shied away from spending like bigger-market teams or parting with draft capital to bring in reinforcements at the trade deadline. While the attendance issues are an ongoing challenge and concern in Winnipeg, my impression is that ownership remains committed to building up its corporate support base and ultimately selling more season-ticket packages. Icing a championship-caliber team certainly won’t hurt those efforts.
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Can you suggest any names for defensemen that shake up and become available at this year’s trade deadline? — Madhav D.
Ivan Provorov topped my list of 10 early trade candidates published last month. The Columbus Blue Jackets will almost certainly move the left-shot defenseman ahead of the trade deadline. Some other names to consider are Cam Fowler of the Anaheim Ducks and Rasmus Ristolainen of the Philadelphia Flyers, both of whom are signed beyond this season. While the rental market is still taking shape and will hinge heavily on where the playoff races stand come late February, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the San Jose Sharks move veteran right-shot defenseman Cody Ceci before the end of the season.
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Will Bill Daly be the next commissioner? I always enjoy his thoughts on the state of the league. — Anonymous
For years, I would have answered by saying, “Absolutely,” but now I’m not quite so sure. For starters, Gary Bettman is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down so there’s no real need to start tabbing replacements for him as NHL commissioner. Plus, Daly is already intricately involved in everything that happens at the top levels of the league — to the point where it’s hard to distinguish the difference between what tasks fall to him or his boss. Basically, he’s already handling many aspects of the role. Daly unquestionably has the acumen and industry-wide respect to step into the No. 1 chair today, but with each passing year that Bettman continues to work, the possibility it ever happens for the 60-year-old deputy commissioner gets a little more diminished.
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While the CBA ends in 2026, do you think they will settle before it ends or are we looking at another lockout? — Matthew F.
I’d be shocked if we had another lockout as part of the next round of negotiations. Now, I’m a glass-half-full guy by nature, but that opinion is also based on my daily conversations with people inside the game. I haven’t come across anyone who sees trouble on the horizon. Revenues are up, best-on-best international competition is returning and there seems to be unanimous agreement that the system needs to be tweaked, not reimagined.
Would the NHL ever look to make some rule changes to allow teams more flexibility to make moves (luxury tax, franchise tags, etc.)? — William B.
My sense is that there may be a little wiggle room to make something like this happen. Now, it’s important to remember that everything is part of a larger negotiation: If the owners were to concede any ground by installing a valve on the hard-cap, air-tight system they currently have, you’d have to imagine they’d be asking for something in return. But generally speaking, I think there’s an understanding that the restrictive nature of the current rules creates some challenges when it comes to roster movement, which in turn could be making the overall product less compelling than it would be otherwise. While it’s still too early to forecast where this is headed, I’d imagine it’ll be explored at the bargaining table.
What happens first: Crosby hits 1,700 points or Ovi gets the goals record? — Jeff F.
Rather than going with my gut on this one, let’s lean on some math. From the start of the 2022-23 season through Thursday, Sidney Crosby averaged 1.13 points per game and Alex Ovechkin 0.49 goals per game. Should those rates stay constant, Crosby would need 79 more games to reach 1,700 career points while Ovechkin would need 71 more games to pass Wayne Gretzky’s record with his 895th career goal. Love this question — it looks like it’s going to be very close! — but I’ll give the edge to Ovechkin.
Alex Ovechkin had 861 career goals and longtime rival Sidney Crosby had 1611 points heading into Friday’s Penguins-Capitals matchup. (Geoff Burke / USA Today)
(Top photo of Kirill Kaprizov and Mitch Marner: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
